sra 2012 - towards a life cycle aware chemical risk analysis
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Towards a Life Cycle Aware Chemical Risk Analysis
Brandon Kuczenski, Roland Geyer, and Bob Boughton
Society for Risk Analysis – San Francisco, CA
December 12, 2012
Regulation of Chemical Risks
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 2 / 11
Industrial chemistry provides the foundation for modern production andmanufacturing.
● Over 11.8 Gt of chemicals produced or imported in 2006 (EPA);
● Threats can be highly uncertain or unknown.
Regulation of Chemical Risks
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 2 / 11
Industrial chemistry provides the foundation for modern production andmanufacturing.
● Over 11.8 Gt of chemicals produced or imported in 2006 (EPA);
● Threats can be highly uncertain or unknown.
Regulation of chemicals focuses on assessing and managing risks.
● Toxic Substances Control Act (1976): regulates chemicals which pose an“unreasonable risk” to public health or the environment;
● REACH: a distributed risk data management framework;
● P&G, e.g.: “It’s all about risk.”
Regulation of Chemical Risks
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 2 / 11
Industrial chemistry provides the foundation for modern production andmanufacturing.
● Over 11.8 Gt of chemicals produced or imported in 2006 (EPA);
● Threats can be highly uncertain or unknown.
Regulation of chemicals focuses on assessing and managing risks.
● Toxic Substances Control Act (1976): regulates chemicals which pose an“unreasonable risk” to public health or the environment;
● REACH: a distributed risk data management framework;
● P&G, e.g.: “It’s all about risk.”
RA Downsides: expensive and slow; uncertain; technically complex; narrowscope; overwhelming.
● Innumerable chemical exposure + adverse effect scenarios
● Not always straightforward to set quantitative guidelines (e.g. Methylene
chloride and OSHA; Tickner and Geiser, Environ Impact Assess Rev 2004)
Alternative Approaches
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 3 / 11
US States have advanced their own regulatory programs to supplementTSCA:
● Massachusetts: Toxics Use Reduction Act (1989)
− Reduce toxic waste 50% over 10 years through source reduction;
− Office of Technical Assistance;
− Toxics Use Reduction Institute (TURI) – UMass Lowell;
− Five Chemicals Alternatives Assessment Study.
Alternative Approaches
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 3 / 11
US States have advanced their own regulatory programs to supplementTSCA:
● Massachusetts: Toxics Use Reduction Act (1989)
− Reduce toxic waste 50% over 10 years through source reduction;
− Office of Technical Assistance;
− Toxics Use Reduction Institute (TURI) – UMass Lowell;
− Five Chemicals Alternatives Assessment Study.
● California: Green Chemistry Initiative (2006)
− AB 1879 (2008): Safer alternatives to chemicals of concern in consumer
products;
− “Multimedia Life Cycle Evaluation” of alternative measures;
− Reduce toxic threats; avoid regrets.
Alternative Approaches
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 3 / 11
US States have advanced their own regulatory programs to supplementTSCA:
● Massachusetts: Toxics Use Reduction Act (1989)
− Reduce toxic waste 50% over 10 years through source reduction;
− Office of Technical Assistance;
− Toxics Use Reduction Institute (TURI) – UMass Lowell;
− Five Chemicals Alternatives Assessment Study.
● California: Green Chemistry Initiative (2006)
− AB 1879 (2008): Safer alternatives to chemicals of concern in consumer
products;
− “Multimedia Life Cycle Evaluation” of alternative measures;
− Reduce toxic threats; avoid regrets.
These programs often emphasize qualitative analysis; “life cycle thinking.”
Four Steps to Risk Assessment
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 4 / 11
National Research Council 1983 –“Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process”
HazardTrait
DoseResponse
ExposureModel
RiskCharacterization
Chemical propertiesCMR, PBT
Animal studiesSAR studies
Expert judgment
dose
response
Animal studies. . .PNEC / NOAEL /
NOAEC. . .Dose curves are oftenassumed to be linear
Acute / ChronicConcentration
Duration
“Risk = Hazard × Exposure”
Risk Ratings:PEC / PNEC
minimal MOS / MOS
Risk Management
Life Cycle Thinking
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 5 / 11
A Life Cycle Perspective: An awareness of the material flows associatedwith a given product system, from the extraction of raw materials throughproduction and use, energy production, chemicals, disposal of wastes,infrastructure, and end of life.
● Objective: holistic accounting of environmental impacts that arise from delivering aproduct or service;
● Aggregate impacts over geographic areas, industries and times;
● Comparison on the basis of a functional unit of utility.
Goal + Scope
Inventory
Impact
Assessment
Interpretation
Life Cycle Inventory Modeling
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 6 / 11
Unit Process
Upstreamproducts
andservices
. . .
Energy Resources
Wastes Emissions
Product
● Each industrial process is modeled;
● Inputs and outputs (elementary vs.intermediate);
● LCIA aggregates impacts across allprocesses;
● focuses mainly on elementary flows.
Life Cycle Inventory Modeling
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 6 / 11
Unit Process
Upstreamproducts
andservices
. . .
Energy Resources
Wastes Emissions
Product
● Each industrial process is modeled;
● Inputs and outputs (elementary vs.intermediate);
● LCIA aggregates impacts across allprocesses;
● focuses mainly on elementary flows.
Life Cycle Inventory Modeling
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 6 / 11
Unit Process
Upstreamproducts
andservices
. . .
Energy Resources
Wastes Emissions
Product
● Each industrial process is modeled;
● Inputs and outputs (elementary vs.intermediate);
● LCIA aggregates impacts across allprocesses;
● focuses mainly on elementary flows.
Life Cycle of a product made of PVC
Bulk PVCPVC
Formulation
DBP
Toymanufacture
PackagingDistribution Use End of Life
Life Cycle Aware Risk Characterization
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 7 / 11
PEC / PNEC
0.012Sewage treatment
0.3Surface water
0.31Sediment
0.017Soil
2.1E-4Fish (oral)
7.8E-3Worm (oral)
1.5Plant (air)
Environmental emissions1
0.71Dermal, systemic
190Inhalation, local
1.2Inhalation, systemic
1.37Reproduction (all routes)
neg.Inhalation (non-aerosol)
Occupational exposure2MOSminimal / MOS
1.3E-9Nail polish
0.016Adhesive (inhalation)
0.041Food wrapping (oral)
6.2E-3Child toy (oral)
Consumer exposure3
10−3 10−2 0.1 1 10 100
Risk ratio (expected / threshold)
Exposure
dibutyl phthalate – risk characterization
1 – EC 2004, Tables 3.22–3.23, plus addendum2 – EC 2004, Tables 4.14–4.183 – EC 2004, Section 4.1.3.3
Kuczenski et al (2011) – ES&T
Chemical Risks are part of Inventory Data
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 8 / 11
Unit Process
Occupational exposure
Toxic
Upstreamproducts
andservices
Hazardouswastes?
Emissions
Product
toxic flowmight contain toxicsbenign flowpotential exposure scenario
● Risk assessments can be made life-cycle aware by associatingthem with unit processes;
● LCA can be made risk aware by identifying and trackingintermediate flows that might be toxic or otherwise hazardous.
Risk in the Life Cycle
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 9 / 11
Life Cycle of a product made of PVC
Bulk PVCPVC
Formulation
DBP
Toymanufacture
PackagingDistribution Use End of Life
PEC / PNEC
Sewage treatment
Surface water
Sediment
Soil
Fish (oral)
Worm (oral)
Plant (air)
Environmental emissions1
Dermal, systemic
Inhalation, local
Inhalation, systemic
Reproduction (all routes)
Inhalation (non-aerosol)
Occupational exposure2MOSminimal / MOS
Nail polish
Adhesive (inhalation)
Food wrapping (oral)
Child toy (oral)
Consumer exposure3
10−3 10−2 0.1 1 10 100
Distributed Assessment of Chemical Hazards
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 10 / 11
Reporter #1
DBP Producerhazard characteristicsenvironmental emissions:– at production– at end of life
DBP Plastic part End of Life
R61, R50, R62S53, S45, S61chemical propertiesrisk information
environ. environ.
Distributed Assessment of Chemical Hazards
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 10 / 11
Reporter #1
DBP Producerhazard characteristicsenvironmental emissions:– at production– at end of life
DBP Plastic part End of Life
R61, R50, R62S53, S45, S61chemical propertiesrisk information
environ. environ.
Reporter #2
Toy Manufacturer– occupational exposure– consumer exposure– multiple substances
PVC / DBPToy
manufacturePackagingDistribution Use
occup.
inhalationreproductive harmdermal
consumer
dermaloral
Distributed Assessment of Chemical Hazards
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 10 / 11
Reporter #1
DBP Producerhazard characteristicsenvironmental emissions:– at production– at end of life
DBP Plastic part End of Life
R61, R50, R62S53, S45, S61chemical propertiesrisk information
environ. environ.
Reporter #2
Toy Manufacturer– occupational exposure– consumer exposure– multiple substances
PVC / DBPToy
manufacturePackagingDistribution Use
occup.
inhalationreproductive harmdermal
consumer
dermaloral
Reporter #3
Public Agencytoxics monitoring– consumer exposure– end of life
Kuczenski et al (2011) – ES&T
PVC / DBP ManufacturePackagingDistribution Use End of life
environ.consumer
dermal
Risk Characterization of Processes and Flows
Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 11 / 11
● RA Helps LCA:
− Provides key information about intermediate flows;
− Aids in tracking the flow of toxic materials through product systems and the economy;
● “Life cycle thinking” can situate RA studies in a broader scope:
− Process-flow network model can help organize risk information;
− associating toxics use with a functional unit may facilitate the search for safer alterna-tives.
● Toxics use reduction is part of life cycle sustainability.
Kuczenski, Geyer, Boughton. (2011) “Tracking Toxicants: Toward a life cycle aware risk
assessment.” Environ Sci Technol 45(1).
Thanks to:
● Cal/EPA, Department of Toxic Substances Control
● CalRecycle
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