sra 2012 - towards a life cycle aware chemical risk analysis

Towards a Life Cycle Aware Chemical Risk Analysis

Brandon Kuczenski, Roland Geyer, and Bob Boughton

Society for Risk Analysis – San Francisco, CA

December 12, 2012

Regulation of Chemical Risks

Kuczenski et al SRA 2012 Annual Meeting – 2 / 11

Industrial chemistry provides the foundation for modern production andmanufacturing.

● Over 11.8 Gt of chemicals produced or imported in 2006 (EPA);

● Threats can be highly uncertain or unknown.






Regulation of chemicals focuses on assessing and managing risks.

● Toxic Substances Control Act (1976): regulates chemicals which pose an“unreasonable risk” to public health or the environment;

● REACH: a distributed risk data management framework;

● P&G, e.g.: “It’s all about risk.”






Regulation of chemicals focuses on assessing and managing risks.

● Toxic Substances Control Act (1976): regulates chemicals which pose an“unreasonable risk” to public health or the environment;

● REACH: a distributed risk data management framework;

● P&G, e.g.: “It’s all about risk.”

RA Downsides: expensive and slow; uncertain; technically complex; narrowscope; overwhelming.

● Innumerable chemical exposure + adverse effect scenarios

● Not always straightforward to set quantitative guidelines (e.g. Methylene

chloride and OSHA; Tickner and Geiser, Environ Impact Assess Rev 2004)

Alternative Approaches


US States have advanced their own regulatory programs to supplementTSCA:

● Massachusetts: Toxics Use Reduction Act (1989)

− Reduce toxic waste 50% over 10 years through source reduction;

− Office of Technical Assistance;

− Toxics Use Reduction Institute (TURI) – UMass Lowell;

− Five Chemicals Alternatives Assessment Study.









● California: Green Chemistry Initiative (2006)

− AB 1879 (2008): Safer alternatives to chemicals of concern in consumer

products;

− “Multimedia Life Cycle Evaluation” of alternative measures;

− Reduce toxic threats; avoid regrets.









● California: Green Chemistry Initiative (2006)

− AB 1879 (2008): Safer alternatives to chemicals of concern in consumer

products;

− “Multimedia Life Cycle Evaluation” of alternative measures;

− Reduce toxic threats; avoid regrets.

These programs often emphasize qualitative analysis; “life cycle thinking.”

Four Steps to Risk Assessment


National Research Council 1983 –“Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process”

HazardTrait

DoseResponse

ExposureModel

RiskCharacterization

Chemical propertiesCMR, PBT

Animal studiesSAR studies

Expert judgment

dose

response

Animal studies. . .PNEC / NOAEL /

NOAEC. . .Dose curves are oftenassumed to be linear

Acute / ChronicConcentration

Duration

“Risk = Hazard × Exposure”

Risk Ratings:PEC / PNEC

minimal MOS / MOS

Risk Management

Life Cycle Thinking


A Life Cycle Perspective: An awareness of the material flows associatedwith a given product system, from the extraction of raw materials throughproduction and use, energy production, chemicals, disposal of wastes,infrastructure, and end of life.

● Objective: holistic accounting of environmental impacts that arise from delivering aproduct or service;

● Aggregate impacts over geographic areas, industries and times;

● Comparison on the basis of a functional unit of utility.

Goal + Scope

Inventory

Impact

Assessment

Interpretation

Life Cycle Inventory Modeling


Unit Process

Upstreamproducts

andservices

. . .

Energy Resources

Wastes Emissions

Product

● Each industrial process is modeled;

● Inputs and outputs (elementary vs.intermediate);

● LCIA aggregates impacts across allprocesses;

● focuses mainly on elementary flows.

Life Cycle Inventory Modeling


Unit Process

Upstreamproducts

andservices

. . .

Energy Resources

Wastes Emissions

Product

● Each industrial process is modeled;

● Inputs and outputs (elementary vs.intermediate);

● LCIA aggregates impacts across allprocesses;

● focuses mainly on elementary flows.

Life Cycle of a product made of PVC

Bulk PVCPVC

Formulation

DBP

Toymanufacture

PackagingDistribution Use End of Life

Life Cycle Aware Risk Characterization


PEC / PNEC

0.012Sewage treatment

0.3Surface water

0.31Sediment

0.017Soil

2.1E-4Fish (oral)

7.8E-3Worm (oral)

1.5Plant (air)

Environmental emissions1

0.71Dermal, systemic

190Inhalation, local

1.2Inhalation, systemic

1.37Reproduction (all routes)

neg.Inhalation (non-aerosol)

Occupational exposure2MOSminimal / MOS

1.3E-9Nail polish

0.016Adhesive (inhalation)

0.041Food wrapping (oral)

6.2E-3Child toy (oral)

Consumer exposure3

10−3 10−2 0.1 1 10 100

Risk ratio (expected / threshold)

Exposure

dibutyl phthalate – risk characterization

1 – EC 2004, Tables 3.22–3.23, plus addendum2 – EC 2004, Tables 4.14–4.183 – EC 2004, Section 4.1.3.3

Kuczenski et al (2011) – ES&T

Chemical Risks are part of Inventory Data


Unit Process

Occupational exposure

Toxic

Upstreamproducts

andservices

Hazardouswastes?

Emissions

Product

toxic flowmight contain toxicsbenign flowpotential exposure scenario

● Risk assessments can be made life-cycle aware by associatingthem with unit processes;

● LCA can be made risk aware by identifying and trackingintermediate flows that might be toxic or otherwise hazardous.

Risk in the Life Cycle


Life Cycle of a product made of PVC

Bulk PVCPVC

Formulation

DBP

Toymanufacture

PackagingDistribution Use End of Life

PEC / PNEC

Sewage treatment

Surface water

Sediment

Soil

Fish (oral)

Worm (oral)

Plant (air)

Environmental emissions1

Dermal, systemic

Inhalation, local

Inhalation, systemic

Reproduction (all routes)

Inhalation (non-aerosol)

Occupational exposure2MOSminimal / MOS

Nail polish

Adhesive (inhalation)

Food wrapping (oral)

Child toy (oral)

Consumer exposure3

10−3 10−2 0.1 1 10 100

Distributed Assessment of Chemical Hazards


Reporter #1

DBP Producerhazard characteristicsenvironmental emissions:– at production– at end of life

DBP Plastic part End of Life

R61, R50, R62S53, S45, S61chemical propertiesrisk information

environ. environ.



Reporter #1




environ. environ.

Reporter #2

Toy Manufacturer– occupational exposure– consumer exposure– multiple substances

PVC / DBPToy

manufacturePackagingDistribution Use

occup.

inhalationreproductive harmdermal

consumer

dermaloral



Reporter #1




environ. environ.

Reporter #2

Toy Manufacturer– occupational exposure– consumer exposure– multiple substances

PVC / DBPToy

manufacturePackagingDistribution Use

occup.

inhalationreproductive harmdermal

consumer

dermaloral

Reporter #3

Public Agencytoxics monitoring– consumer exposure– end of life

Kuczenski et al (2011) – ES&T

PVC / DBP ManufacturePackagingDistribution Use End of life

environ.consumer

dermal

Risk Characterization of Processes and Flows


● RA Helps LCA:

− Provides key information about intermediate flows;

− Aids in tracking the flow of toxic materials through product systems and the economy;

● “Life cycle thinking” can situate RA studies in a broader scope:

− Process-flow network model can help organize risk information;

− associating toxics use with a functional unit may facilitate the search for safer alterna-tives.

● Toxics use reduction is part of life cycle sustainability.

Kuczenski, Geyer, Boughton. (2011) “Tracking Toxicants: Toward a life cycle aware risk

assessment.” Environ Sci Technol 45(1).

Thanks to:

● Cal/EPA, Department of Toxic Substances Control

● CalRecycle

sra 2012 - towards a life cycle aware chemical risk analysis

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