summary of progress with poama/access seasonal prediction system

Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESSSeasonal Prediction System

POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System

20082007 2010

PO

AM

A-2

PO

AM

A-1

.5P

OA

MA

-3

2009

Hind-casts

2011

OperationalProducts & docs

Applications

SystemRe-analyses

Hind-castsOperational

Products and docApplications

System DevelopmentRe-analyses

Hind-castsOperational

Products & DocApplications

Major improvements

POAMA-1.5

• New ACCESS atmosphere/land initialisation (ALI) system• Comprehensive hind-cast set (1980-2006, 10 member ensemble each month) - 3

members done• Rainfall forecasts (direct + statistical downscaling)• Intra-seasonal (weekly) forecasts• OpenDAP external data server (sample - last 3 years available)

POAMA-2

• New ACCESS Ocean assimilation system (PEODAS)• New ACCESS ensemble generation strategy• Increased atmospheric resolution (T95 - optional)

POAMA-3

• New ACCESS coupled model (UKMO UM, AusCOM, ..)• Higher resolution (ocean, atmosphere)• Greenhouse gases• New ACCESS coupled assimilation system

Results

POAMA-1.5B

So far 3 out of 10 member ensemble each month from 1980-2005

Real-time forecasts in next 2 months

(Some results from preliminary version 1.5A, with no ALI)

Summary of work of many from BMRC

P15b P15a P1 Persistence

P15b P15a P1 Persistence

Produced by Guomin Wang

NINO 3SSTA forecasts

P15b P15a P1 Persistence

Indian Ocean Dipole Model Index

Produced by Guomin Wang

POAMA15B1982-20053 members mean

Skill at lead=5

Dashed: persistence

Produced by Guomin Wang

SST Anomaly Correlation

POAMA-1 POAMA-1.5

1 month

3 month

5 month

Produced by Guomin Wang

MAM LT 0

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

AVG SEACI QLD NSW

Co

rr.

Co

eff.

POAMA

EOF

SVD

POAMA NINO4

SVD-calib

STAT

MAM LT 3

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

AVG SEACI QLD NSWCo

rr.

Co

eff.

POAMA

EOF

SVD

POAMA NINO4

SVD-calib

STAT

MAM forecasts

Winner POAMA

Loser SVD

Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)

Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

SON LT 0

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

AVG SEACI QLD NSW

Co

rr.

Co

eff.

POAMA

MLR

SVD

POAMA NINO4

SVD-calib

STAT

SON LT 3

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

AVG SEACI QLD NSW

Co

rr.

Co

eff.

POAMA

MLR

SVD

POAMA NINO4

SVD-calib

STAT

SON Forecasts

Winner Bridging (EOF/NINO4)

Loser SVD-calib

Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)

1997

OBS

2002

SST anomaly predicted by POAMA 1.5a at LT3

1997

2002

1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts

Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

1997 2002

1997 vs 2002 Rainfall forecasts

Obs

Forecast - Lead 3

Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

Intra-Seasonal Forecasts

Initialised with true state of ocean, land and atmosphere

Stored daily data

Can start looking at weekly time scales

Gap between NWP and Seasonal prediction

Skill over Australia as a function of lead time (days): precipitation

(by Debbie Hudson)

(1980-2001)KEY: persistence p15a p15b

0.5

Wheeler MJO Phase Diagram

•Forecasts starting 1st March 1997

•50 day forecasts

•Light Blue - obs

•Other colours - ensembles

•Produced by Harun Rashid

Summary

• Significant improvement in SST skill levels

• Rainfall competitive with statistical forecasts ?

• Range of new products

• Seasonal and Weekly forecast

• Comprehensive hind-cast set available soon

• Available externally - openDAP server

• Exiting year ahead !!