summary of progress with poama/access seasonal prediction system
DESCRIPTION
Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction System. System. Re-analyses. Hind-casts. Operational. Products and doc. Applications. System Development. Re-analyses. Hind-casts. Operational. Products & Doc. Applications. POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System. 2007. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESSSeasonal Prediction System
POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System
20082007 2010
PO
AM
A-2
PO
AM
A-1
.5P
OA
MA
-3
2009
Hind-casts
2011
OperationalProducts & docs
Applications
SystemRe-analyses
Hind-castsOperational
Products and docApplications
System DevelopmentRe-analyses
Hind-castsOperational
Products & DocApplications
Major improvements
POAMA-1.5
• New ACCESS atmosphere/land initialisation (ALI) system• Comprehensive hind-cast set (1980-2006, 10 member ensemble each month) - 3
members done• Rainfall forecasts (direct + statistical downscaling)• Intra-seasonal (weekly) forecasts• OpenDAP external data server (sample - last 3 years available)
POAMA-2
• New ACCESS Ocean assimilation system (PEODAS)• New ACCESS ensemble generation strategy• Increased atmospheric resolution (T95 - optional)
POAMA-3
• New ACCESS coupled model (UKMO UM, AusCOM, ..)• Higher resolution (ocean, atmosphere)• Greenhouse gases• New ACCESS coupled assimilation system
Results
POAMA-1.5B
So far 3 out of 10 member ensemble each month from 1980-2005
Real-time forecasts in next 2 months
(Some results from preliminary version 1.5A, with no ALI)
Summary of work of many from BMRC
P15b P15a P1 Persistence
P15b P15a P1 Persistence
Produced by Guomin Wang
NINO 3SSTA forecasts
P15b P15a P1 Persistence
Indian Ocean Dipole Model Index
Produced by Guomin Wang
POAMA15B1982-20053 members mean
Skill at lead=5
Dashed: persistence
Produced by Guomin Wang
SST Anomaly Correlation
POAMA-1 POAMA-1.5
1 month
3 month
5 month
Produced by Guomin Wang
MAM LT 0
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
AVG SEACI QLD NSW
Co
rr.
Co
eff.
POAMA
EOF
SVD
POAMA NINO4
SVD-calib
STAT
MAM LT 3
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
AVG SEACI QLD NSWCo
rr.
Co
eff.
POAMA
EOF
SVD
POAMA NINO4
SVD-calib
STAT
MAM forecasts
Winner POAMA
Loser SVD
Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
SON LT 0
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
AVG SEACI QLD NSW
Co
rr.
Co
eff.
POAMA
MLR
SVD
POAMA NINO4
SVD-calib
STAT
SON LT 3
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
AVG SEACI QLD NSW
Co
rr.
Co
eff.
POAMA
MLR
SVD
POAMA NINO4
SVD-calib
STAT
SON Forecasts
Winner Bridging (EOF/NINO4)
Loser SVD-calib
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)
1997
OBS
2002
SST anomaly predicted by POAMA 1.5a at LT3
1997
2002
1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
1997 2002
1997 vs 2002 Rainfall forecasts
Obs
Forecast - Lead 3
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
Intra-Seasonal Forecasts
Initialised with true state of ocean, land and atmosphere
Stored daily data
Can start looking at weekly time scales
Gap between NWP and Seasonal prediction
Skill over Australia as a function of lead time (days): precipitation
(by Debbie Hudson)
(1980-2001)KEY: persistence p15a p15b
0.5
Wheeler MJO Phase Diagram
•Forecasts starting 1st March 1997
•50 day forecasts
•Light Blue - obs
•Other colours - ensembles
•Produced by Harun Rashid
Summary
• Significant improvement in SST skill levels
• Rainfall competitive with statistical forecasts ?
• Range of new products
• Seasonal and Weekly forecast
• Comprehensive hind-cast set available soon
• Available externally - openDAP server
• Exiting year ahead !!