ted@econleadership.com. i have nothing profound the say …except, many of the things we all used to...

ted@econleadership.com

I Have Nothing Profound the Say

…except, many of the things we all used to know we knew, have

changed

Think

Today’s New “Place” Reality• The economy changed• The competition changed• Locational factors changed• The U.S. workforce has changed• The talent demands changed• Customer (talent & companies)

demands/expectations changed• The pace of change and everything

else changed

How Is The Economy?

Corporate Profits at All Time High

Stock Market at All Time High

Housing Price Index- Inflation Adjusted

Source: Calculatedriskblog.com

Stagnation of wages and slow growth of jobs

Wide disparity between people and places

So What Are Some Economic Facts?

Annual U.S. Employment Change

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-6,000,000

-5,000,000

-4,000,000

-3,000,000

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

-1,757,000

-532,000

62,000

2,019,0002,484,000

2,071,000

1,115,000

-3,617,000

-5,052,000

1,022,000

2,103,0002,193,000

2,331,000

Source: BLS Nov 2013

Annual U.S. Employment Change By SectorMarch 2013 to March 2014

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade/Trans/Util

Information

Financial

Prof/Biz Services

Ed/Health Services

Leisure/Hosp

Governm

ent

-100,000.00

0.00

100,000.00

200,000.00

300,000.00

400,000.00

500,000.00

600,000.00

700,000.00

800,000.00

151,00072,000

529,000

29,000 57,000

667,000

334,000406,000

-19,000

Source: BLS April 2014

Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes Feb 2013 to Feb 2014

AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0.8%1.0%

2.8%

1.4%

-0.3%

0.5%0.3%

1.2%

0.4%

1.2% 1.2%

1.5% 1.4%

2.8%

0.0%0.2%

Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Feb 2013- Feb 2014

Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes

AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

14,30011,600

211,500

56,000

-5,800

9,900 7,600

32,000

4,900

46,400

20,20027,500

37,700

314,200

-1,8001,900

Source: U.S. BLS, March 2014, Measured Feb 2013 to Feb 2014

NC Employment Change By SectorFeb 2013 to Feb 2014

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade/Trans/Util

Financial

Prof/Biz Services

Ed/Health Services

Leisure/Hosp

Governm

ent

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

5,400

-600

11,600

2,800

19,000

5,3002,100

-2,900

Source: BLS April 2014

NC Employment Growth

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Source:NCESC.com

Jan Annual Employment

“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get hit in the mouth”

Mike Tyson

The Punch- Job Change 1990 to 2012

Textiles Tobacco App/Cut Sew Furniture0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000182,905

16,530

92,531 86,962

30,685

6,1198,338

30,229

19902012

Source: NCESC.com

The loss of about 80% of our traditional manufacturing jobs

NC Employment Changes By Sector 2000-2012

Total

Agriculture

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Retail

Trans/Ware

Info

Finance/Ins

Real Estate

Prof/Tech

Education

Health

Art/Enter

Accom/Food

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

1%

-9%

-30% -26%

-42%

3%

0%

-13%-18%

18%

1%

35%27%

40%

28% 28%

Source: QCEW County Sector DataEmployees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted

Employment ChangeJanuary 2008 to January 2014

West Charlotte East Northeast Southeast Triad Triangle-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

-12,276

44,050

-763-10,393

3,714

-18,505

54,730NC Total 60,557

Source: NCESC.com

Southern States Per Capita Income1990-2012 (% Different from Nation Change)

AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

7.5%

20.5%

-13.0% -10.7%

7.5%

39.2%

8.5%

1.5%

31.5%

-5.1%

22.0%

-4.3%

6.7%

19.7%

11.2%

18.2%

Source: bber, University of New Mexico

U.S. Change 120.6% Inflation 73%

NC Per Capita Income Compared to U.S. 1990-2012

19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

United StatesNC

Source: bber, University of New Mexico

GDP/Capita Changes in the NC 1997-2011

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

NC USA

Source: BEA, Oct 2012

Contextualizing Change

A “Place-Based” Strategy

26

Where You Are, Your Current

Reality

Where You Desire To Be

Direction, or Compass is driven by the Vision, Mission and Core Values of the organization or place

Context is determined by the conversion of comparative and longitudinal data into information that can be used as knowledge

Change is the group of factors, outside your control, that influences your future, global trends, demographic shifts, changing technology

Choices of Intentional Actions To Move From

Here To There

Change

Compass

Context

Goals

Actions

Metrics

Action Plan• What actions will we undertake?• Who will be responsible for those actions?• What resources do we need to be successful?• Where will those resources come from?• When will each action start and be completed?• What results do we expect?• How will those results be evaluated, and;• How will we monitor the plan and continuously

update it?

LeadershipInformation Curation

“No one born after the turn of the century has ever known anything but a world uprooting its foundations, overturning its values and toppling its idols.”

Peter Drucker 1957

Big Trends

Urbanization

U.S. Population ConcentrationMetro-Non-Metro

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Metro Non-Metro Source: Census

80%Almost 60% of US population lives in Cities of 1 million or more

In 2012 over 90% of GDP and 86% of all jobs are in metropolitan areas

Southern States % of Population Rural & Small Cities 2010

AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV KS IL IA NE0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

51%

61%

13%

35%

59%

39%

17%

43%

72%

45%

54%

44% 46%

25%30%

67%

50%

20%

58%

46%

Source: U.S. Census 2010, Daily Yonder 2012

2013 Ranking for NC Metropolitan and Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Of 366 Metropolitan AreasTop Third (7)Middle Third (3)Bottom Third (4)

Of 576 Micropolitan AreasTop Third (8)Middle Third (4)Bottom Third (14)

Source: Policom.com, 2013

Global Interdependence

State Goods % Exports Growth 2010-2013

AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

25%

37%

9%

30%

31%

53%

16%

0%

50%

18%

29%28%

25%

35%

5%

32%

Source:2010-2013 data from U.S. Census and Foreign Trade

Technology

McKinsey & CompanyDisruptive Technologies: May 2013

Energy Mobile Internet

Advanced Materials Next Generation Genomics

Robotics, Cloud, Digital-intel, 3D Printing

The Talent Bar Is Rising

US Adults Years School Completed

Less than HS HS Grad Some College BA plus0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% 76%

14%

5% 5%

31%37%

15% 17%13%

31%26%

30%

19401950196019701980199020002010

In 1980, 32% had some college & 17% BA

In 2010, 56% some college & 30% BA

Source: U.S. Census

Creative Work

Routine Work

Outsourced

RoutineWork

Machines

Routine Work

Source: National Center on Education and the Economy, Tough Choices or Tough Times, 2007

Work Shifts

“What is different now is the nature of jobs going away has changed…the type

of jobs affected have moved up the income distribution.”

Peter DiamondMIT Economist

2010 Nobel Prize Winner

Source: Economicmodeling, Joshua Wright, Oct 3, 2013

Local policy could be worsening the hollowing out of the job market. Data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Southern States Percentage of New Jobs 2010-2013 Paying Middle Wage

AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

16.0%18.0%

17.0%

22.0%

30.0%29.0%

22.0%

17.0%

10.0%

22.0%

32.0%

29.0%

24.0% 25.0%

14.0%

19.0%

Source: The Atlantic, Joshua Wright, Oct, 2013

So What…

June 24th and 25th at RTP

• Commercialization must come from the top of the university.

• A culture of change towards entrepreneurship and risk-taking must occur on all levels of the university.

• A centralized point of contact, for industry looking for university invention

• Restructure teaching structures by pushing beyond the standard seat-in-a-classroom, semester-organized, graduate in four years model

• Centers and programs that stretch across traditional academic boundaries

• Incubators and/or accelerators for student and faculty startups, and business plan competition with sizable cash awards.

• Entrepreneurship programs that permeate the university with entrepreneurial opportunities.

“Do what you have, with what you have, where you are.”

“ Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other.”

John F. Kennedy ted@econleadership.com