the antarctic peninsula under a 1.5°c global warming scenario what change … · 2020-04-29 ·...

The Antarctic Peninsula under a 1.5°C global warming scenario What change is it locked into? MARTIN SIEGERT1, ANGUS ATKINSON2, ALISON BANWELL3, MARK BRANDON4, PETER CONVEY5, BETHAN DAVIES6, ROD DOWNIE7, TAMSIN EDWARDS8, BRYN HUBBARD9, GARETH MARSHALL5, JOERI ROGELJ1, JANE RUMBLE10, JULIENNE STROEVE11, DAVID VAUGHAN5

Introduction

TheUNParisAgreementseekstolimitglobalwarmingtowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevels,promptinganassessmentofhowtoachievea1.5°Ctarget1,2.Here,webringtogetherinformationonhowa1.5°CscenariowillaffecttheAntarctic

Peninsula,notingithasalreadyexperiencedrapidchangeinatmosphericclimate,oceanandiceconditions,andtheimpactsofdirecthumanactivities.AntarcticTreatyParties,aswellasotherinterestedparties,areinvitedtoconsidertheimplicationsofthesepredictionsforthegovernanceofhumanactivitiesintheAntarcticPeninsulaoverthecomingdecades.

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Highlights• AntarcticPeninsulawarminginthelate20thCenturywasgreaterthananywhereelseintheSouthernHemisphere.

• Withafurtherincreaseinglobaltemperaturesof0.5°C:

– AntarcticPeninsulatemperatureswillincreaseby1-2°Cinwinterand0.5-1.0°Cinsummer,withupto130daysperyearabove0°C,leadingtoincreasedrain,snowandicemelt,andsurfacerun-off.

– Oceanturbulencewillincreaseanddeliverheattotheseasurfaceandcoast.

– SeaiceextentwillbehighlyvariablewestoftheAntarcticPeninsula.

– Retreatofmarineglaciermarginswillaccelerate,increasingicebergproduction.

– Meltwaterproductionwillincreaseoniceshelves,butwilllikelynotleadtofurthercollapses.

– Southwardshiftsinmarinelifedistributionhavebeenobservedandwillcontinue.

– Ice-freelandareawillexpand,providinghabitatsfornativeandnon-nativeplantsandinvertebrates,witheachlikelytobenefitfromwarming.

• Non-nativespeciesareafargreaterthreattonativebiodiversitythanthedirectimpactsofwarmingundera1.5°Cscenario.

1. GranthamInstitute,ImperialCollegeLondon,ExhibitionRoad,SouthKensington,LondonSW72AZ,UK2. PlymouthMarineLaboratory,ProspectPlace,Plymouth,PL13DH,UK3. CooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofColoradoBoulder,Boulder80309CO,USA.4. SchoolofEnvironment,EarthandEcosystemSciences,OpenUniversity,MiltonKeynes,MK76AAUK5. BritishAntarcticSurvey,NERCHighCross,MadingleyRoad,Cambridge,CB30ET,UK6. CentreforQuaternaryResearch,DepartmentofGeography,RoyalHollowayUniversityofLondon,Egham,TW200EX,UK7. WWFUK,TheLivingPlanetCentre,RuffordHouse,BreweryRd,WokingGU214LL,UK8. DepartmentofGeography,King’sCollegeLondon,London,WC2R2LS,UK9. DepartmentofGeography&EarthSciences,AberystwythUniversity,Aberystwyth,SY233DB,UK10. PolarRegionsDepartment,UKForeign&CommonwealthOffice,W2.80KingCharlesStreet,LondonSW1A2AH,UK11. CentreforPolarObservationandModelling,UniversityCollegeLondon,GowerStreet,London,WCE1BT,UK

About the Antarctic Peninsula

TheAntarcticPeninsulaincludesthePeninsulaitself,itsislands,andthesurroundingcontinentalshelfandocean.Forthepurposesofthispaper,thenortherlyislands,suchastheSouthOrkneyIslands,arenotincluded.TheAntarcticPeninsulaextendstothesouthernendofGeorgeVISoundandtothenorthernextentofRonneIceShelf,andisdivideddownitslengthymountainousspinebyverystrongwesttoeastgradientsinatmosphericandoceancirculation.Thesefeaturesshapethedistinctcharacteristicsinoceanography,glaciologyandbiologyoneithersideofthePeninsula.ThePeninsulaisalsoaffectedbynorth-southchangesfromthefringeofthesub-Antarctictothedeeppolarregion.

Asaconsequenceofregularmeasurementsoverthelast100years,weknowmoreaboutchangeintheAntarcticPeninsulathanelsewhereonthecontinent.Althoughthereisstrongevidenceofatmosphericwarming,thisisalsoanareaofhighnaturalvariability.Annualnear-surfacetemperaturesincreasedbymorethan2.5°Cinthelatter20thCenturyand,atleastinthenorthernAntarcticPeninsula,havestabilisedinthelast20yearswithvariationsofaround1.5°Cyear-to-year.Summermeltingoccurs,allowingaroundthreepercentofthelandtobesnow-free.

IceshelvesaroundtheAntarcticPeninsulahavethinnedandretreated,andbreak-upeventshaveoccurred.ThecollapseofLarsenA(1995)andLarsenB(2002)iceshelvescausedtheflowofglaciersthatfeedthemtospeedup3,4.GlaciersoftheAntarcticPeninsulacontributearound0.09mmperyear,oraroundthreepercent,toglobalsea-levelrise5,6,7,influencedbyheatprovidedbytheocean7,8,9.SeaiceconditionsareoftenheavytotheeastoftheAntarcticPeninsulaandlighttothewest,butthereisalargedegreeofyear-to-yearvariability.Marinelifehasbeenaffectedbyhumans(sealing,whalingandfishing),especiallyupuntilthe1960s(andthesigningoftheAntarcticTreaty),andresponsestoclimatemustbeinterpretedinthatcontext.Therecentexposureofnewterrestrialsurfacesthathavebeencolonisedbynativevegetationisaclearsignalofclimatechange.

How will the Antarctic Peninsula respond in a 1.5°C scenario?

Climate and weather. AntarcticPeninsulatemperatureswillincreasebymorethantheglobalaverageina1.5°Cscenario2.ThislevelofwarminghasalreadybeenexceededinthenorthernPeninsula10,despitetherecentpauseinrisingtemperaturesintheregion11.Regionaltemperaturescouldincreaseby1-2°Cinwinterand0.5-1.0°Cinsummerbeyondcurrentlevels12.Warmingof1°Cfromtodaywillresultina50to150percentincreaseindaysperyearabove0°C,fromarangeof25to80daysinthenorthernAntarcticPeninsulato

between35and130days.Whiletherehasbeena10to20percentincreaseinprecipitation,andanincreaseinextremeprecipitationevents13,thereisunlikelytobemuchfurtherincreasebeyondcurrentlevels12.ThegreatestchangeinatmosphericcirculationaffectingthePeninsulaisaweakeningofthecircumpolarsummerwesterlywindsinresponsetostratosphericozonerecovery.Increasedlevelsofsurfacewaterrun-off(fromrainandsnow/glacialmelt)and/ormeltingofanythinlayersoffrozensedimentmayalterthestrengthofthegroundconsiderably,albeitforlimitedperiodsoftheyear.Suchchangemayhaveanimpactonstationbuildingsand,potentially,airstrips.

Ocean conditions. ThewestofthePeninsulaisinfluencedbywarmCircumpolarDeepWater(CDW),incontrasttotheeastofthePeninsulawherewatersaremuchcolder14.TheSouthernOceaniswarming15,butwehavenoclearevidencethatthePolarFrontismovingasaresultofthischange16.However,theCDWisbothwarmingandbecomingshallower17,andtheamountofturbulenceintheSouthernOceanisincreasing18.Weexpectthesetrendstocontinue.

Sea ice.ThetwosidesoftheAntarcticPeninsulahaveverydifferentseaiceconditions.TheiceedgeisgenerallyatahigherlatitudeonthePeninsula’swestcomparedwiththeeast.Insummer,virtuallythewholeBellingshausenSeaisfreeofseaice,butontheeastintheWeddellSea,theseaicetypicallyextendstothenorthernendoftheAntarcticPeninsulaandisthickerso,eveninthesummertime,thehighestclassificationice-breakingshipscanhavegreatnavigationaldifficulty.Sincesatelliterecordsbeganaround30yearsago,therehasbeenamodestincreaseintotalannualAntarcticseaiceextent,thoughthevariabilityfromyeartoyearislarge19,andregionalandseasonalchangesaremixed.Tothewest,annualseaiceextenthasdecreasedbyaroundsixtotenpercentperdecadewiththegreatestchangesinautumnandsummer20.ThelengthoftheseaiceseasononthewestofthePeninsulahasalsoreducedbyaroundfourdays21.WeexpectincreasedseaicevariabilityonthewestofthePeninsula,comparedwiththeeast,astheclimatewarms.Thesechangeswillincreasinglyneedtobeaccountedforbyshipping.

Land ice. AntarcticPeninsulaglaciersaresteepandfastflowing,andrespondrapidlytoclimatechange6.Oceanwarmingislikelytocauseacceleratedrecessionofglaciersthatareincontactwiththesea,withslowerrecessiondrivenbyatmosphericchangesforglaciersthatendinland.Thinningandrecessionofglaciersthatextendfromthelandintotheocean,knownasmarine-terminatingglaciers,arethereforeexpectedtoaccelerate,drivenlargelybyincreasedupwellingofwarmCDW.Oncethemarine-terminatingglaciersretreattotheirlandmarginstheywillexperienceslowerthinningandrecession.InsouthernPalmerLand,glaciersaregroundeddeeplybelowsealevelwhichcouldleadtosignificantglacierretreat16.Undera1.5°Cscenario,glaciersonlandwillexperiencemoremeltingthanatpresent16,22,causingincreasedsurfacerun-off.

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2TheAntarcticPeninsulaundera1.5°Cglobalwarmingscenario–Whatchangeisitlockedinto? Briefingnote No10 April2019

E

Sea ice everyyear here.

THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA UNDERA GLOBAL 1.5°C SCENARIOAn assessment of how atmospheric, oceanographic, glaciologicaland biological processes may be affected if global averagetemperatures are limited to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels (i.e.another 0.5ºC increase globally).

High

Low

.

ANTARCTICAW

SITUATION TODAY AT 1°C of GLOBAL WARMING

Krill and sea-ice dependent food web (e.g. with Antarctic krill, Crabeater- and Weddell seals, Adélie penguins) is still present in the north.

CHANGES EXPECTED UNDER 1.5°C OF GLOBAL WARMING35-130 days per year above 0°Cin the northern Peninsula

Increasing populations of native species, and numbers and impacts of non-native species, on exposed surfaces.

Increased surface melting on glaciers andice shelves. Wholescale ice-shelf instability is not expected

Retreat of marine margins of glaciers.

Krill-dependentfood web

Loss of Larsen Aand B ice shelves.

25-80 days per year above 0°C in the northern Peninsula

Productive new habitat may open up with the reduced ice shelves, glaciers and sea ice.

Krill and sea-ice dependent food web displaced southward down peninsula.

Bottom-dwelling species with limited dispersal capability stressed by impacts from icebergs, changes in surface productivity, warming and ocean acidification.

Terrestrial communities on exposed surfaces.

The sea ice is typically further south on this side of the Peninsula.

Annual presenceof sea ice.

Sea ice limited and variable west of the peninsula.

Species less dependent on krill and sea ice (e.g. fur seals, elephant seals, gentoo penguins) increase around the northern peninsula.

Cold water circulating clockwise around the Weddell Sea approaches the Peninsula.

Relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water approaches the Peninsula at depth.

Cold water circulating clockwise around the Weddell Sea approaches the Peninsula maintains the sea ice cover.

Circumpolar Deep Water is expected to increase in temperature and ascend closer to the surface.

TheAntarcticPeninsulaundera1.5°Cglobalwarmingscenario–Whatchangeisitlockedinto? 3Briefingnote No10 April2019

Ice Shelves.ItislikelythatAntarcticPeninsulaiceshelveswillcontinuetothin,primarilyduetoincreasedsurfacemelting23,24.Ifmeltwatercollectsinponds,itcouldcauseice-shelfbendingandfracture;aprocessimplicatedinthecollapseofLarsenB25.However,surfaceriversmayhelppreventsomeofthisice-shelfinstabilitybytransportingmeltwaterintotheocean26.Iceshelveswillalsothininresponsetomeltingoftheirundersidesbywarmoceanwater27.Whileice-shelfthinningincreasesthelikelihoodoficebergsbreakingoff,thelargesticeshelves(e.g.,LarsenCandGeorgeVI)havesufficientsurfaceareatoavoidcatastrophicfailure.

Marine Ecosystems.Theresponseofmarinelivingsystemstoclimatechangeiscomplicatedbyextractionofmarineresources.Sequentialover-exploitationofseals,whalesandsomespeciesoffishoverthelasttwocenturieshasseverelyperturbedthefoodweb,makingithardtounravelitsconsequencesfromthoseofclimatechange28.Responsesofmarinelifetothe1.5°Cscenariowillbediversewithlikelychangesinbehaviour,physiology,geographicordepthdistribution,plusevolutionaryadaptation.Anobservedsouthwardshiftinthedistributionoflivingthingsdownthepeninsulaislikelytocontinue29.

Terrestrial Ecosystems. Terrestrialbiologyislimitedtoice-freeareas,ofwhichonlyafractioniscurrentlyvisiblycolonised.Theseasonally-exposedterrestrialareaofthePeninsulaisexpectedtoexpand29.Thiswillprovidenewhabitatsforcolonisationbynativeand,likely,non-nativeorganisms.Itwillalsoleadtothecoalescingofsomeareasthatarecurrentlyisolated,andalossofgeneticdiversity.NativeplantsandinvertebratesarewelladaptedtothevariableconditionsoftheAntarcticPeninsula30,31andarelikelytobenefitfrommodestwarming32.However,awiderangeofnon-nativespeciescouldsurviveinpartsoftheAntarcticPeninsula.Thus,thethreatofnon-nativespeciestonativebiodiversityfaroutweighstheimpactsofclimatechangeundera1.5°Cscenario.Inlightofthesepressures,environmentalprotectionoftheAntarcticPeninsulamustremainresolute.

Conclusion

ThePolarRegionshavewarmedtwiceasmuchastheglobalaveragesince1850,sowhileglobaltemperatureshaverisenby1°C,theAntarcticPeninsulahasseenatemperatureincreaseofmorethan2.5°C.Thishasledtoglacierretreat,iceshelfdecayandtheexpansionofexposedlandonwhichsomeplantshavebeenabletogrow.Byrestrictingglobaltemperatureincreaseto1.5°C,wecanlimitthedamagetotheAntarcticPeninsula’secosystems.Wecannotavoidfurtherlossofice,expansionofvegetationandcertaininvertebratecommunitiesonland(potentiallywithalienspecies),andalterationtomarineecosystemsthatarestillrecoveringfrommarineresourceextractiondecadesago.However,theiceshelvesarelikelytobemaintainedandmarinelifecanstillbeprotected.Ifwefailtorestricttemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cglobally,however,theAntarcticPeninsulawillexperienceirreversibleanddramaticchange.

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AcknowledgementsWethankDavidSugden(UniversityofEdinburgh)forcommentingonanearlierdraftandClaireWelshfordesigningtheinfographic.FundingforaworkshopheldattheGranthamInstitute,wheremanyoftheideasinthebriefingpaperwerediscussed,wasprovidedbytheUKForeign&CommonwealthOffice.

About the authorsProfessor Martin SiegertisCo-DirectoroftheGranthamInstitute,andanAntarcticglaciologist.Hespecialisesinusingairbornegeophysicalmeasurementstounderstandtheflowandformofpolaricesheets.In2013hewasawardedtheMarthaTMusePrizeforAntarcticScienceandPolicybytheTinkerFoundation.

Dr. Angus AtkinsonisaseniorplanktonecologistatPlymouthMarineLaboratory.Hehasmaintainedalong-standinginterestintheresponseofzooplanktontoclimatechange,withfocusonpolarfoodwebsandparticularlyonAntarctickrill.

25. Banwell,A.F.,D.R.MacAyeal,andO.V.Sergienko,Breakup of the Larsen B Ice Shelf triggered by chain reaction drainage of supraglacial lakes.GeophysicalResearchLetters,2013.40(22):p.5872-5876.

26. Bell,R.E.etal.Antarctic ice shelf potentially stabilized by export of meltwater in surface river. Nature544,344–348(2017).

27. Bentley,M.J.,Hodgson,D.A.,Sugden,D.E.,Roberts,S.J.,Smith,J.A.,Leng,M.J.,Bryant,C.2005.EarlyHoloceneretreatoftheGeorgeVIIceShelf,AntarcticPeninsula.Geology,33(3),173-176.doi:10.1130/G21203.1

28. TrivelpieceWZ,HinkeJT,MillerAK,ReissCS,TrivelpieceSG,WattersGM(2011)VariabilityinkrillbiomasslinksharvestingandclimatewarmingtopenguinpopulationchangesinAntarctica.ProcNatlAcadSci108:7625-7628doi:10.1073/pnas.1016560108

29. Lee,J.R.,Raymond,B.,Bracegirdle,T.J.,Chadès,I.,Fuller,R.A.,Shaw,J.D.&Terauds,A.2017.ClimatechangedrivesexpansionofAntarcticice-freehabitat.Nature,547,49–54,10.1038/nature22996.

30. Peck,L.S.,Convey,P.&Barnes,D.K.A.2006.EnvironmentalconstraintsonlifehistoriesinAntarcticecosystems:tempos,timingsandpredictability. Biological Reviews81,75-109.

31. Pertierra,L.R.,Aragón,P.,Shaw,J.D.,Bergstrom,D.M.,Terauds,A.&Olalla-Tárraga,M.Á.2017.GlobalthermalnichemodelsoftwoEuropeangrassesshowhighinvasionrisksinAntarctica.Global Change Biology, 23,2863–2873,10.1111/gcb.13596.

32. Convey,P.2011.Antarcticterrestrialbiodiversityinachangingworld.Polar Biology34,1629-1641.

Dr. Alison BanwellisaResearchFellowattheCooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences(CIRES)attheUniversityofColoradoBoulder.Sheisaglaciologistwhoisprimarilyinterestedinthepolarregions,andcurrentlyspecialisesinAntarcticice-shelfhydrologyanddynamicsthroughmodelling,remotesensingandfieldwork.

Professor Mark Brandonisanoceanographerwithover25yearsexperience,basedattheOpenUniversity.Hehasatrackrecordofsuccessfullargeprojectsandextensivepublicengagement.

Professor Peter ConveyisapolarterrestrialecologistandhasbeenworkingwiththeBritishAntarcticSurveyinbothpolarregionsforover30years.Hehaswideinterestsinallaspectsofterrestrialecosystems,butparticularlyinbiodiversity,biogeographyandhumanimpactsinthepolarregions.

Dr. Bethan DaviesisaSeniorLecturerinQuaternaryGeologyatRoyalHolloway,UniversityofLondon.Sheisaglacialgeologistinterestedintheinteractionbetweenglaciersandclimateovermultipletimescales.

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Briefingnote No10 April2019TheAntarcticPeninsulaundera1.5°Cglobalwarmingscenario–Whatchangeisitlockedinto?

Dr. Rod DownieistheChiefPolarAdvisoratWWF.RodhasledWWFspolarprogrammeintheUKsince2011,following14yearswiththeBritishAntarcticSurvey.Hehascompleted15fieldseasonsintheAntarctic,totallingmorethantwo-and-a-halfyearslivingandworkingontheice.

Dr. Tamsin EdwardsisaclimatescientistatKing’sCollegeLondon,specialisingintestingandassessinguncertaintiesforclimatemodels,especiallyfortheAntarcticandGreenlandicesheetcontributionstofuturesealevelrise.Sheisalsoanexperiencedcommunicator,involvedinpublicengagementwithscience.

Professor Bryn Hubbardisafieldglaciologist,specializinginborehole-basedinvestigationsofthethree-dimensionalphysicalstructureoficemasses.Thisresearchfocuseson,forexample,firnificationprocesses,englacialicetemperatureanddeformation,andthelinksbetweenglaciermotionandhydrology.

Dr. Gareth Marshall isaseniorclimatologistattheBritishAntarcticsurvey.

Dr Joeri RogeljisaLecturerinClimateChangeattheGranthamInstituteresearchinghowourunderstandingoftheEarthsystemcanaffectclimatepolicy.HeservedasaCoordinatingLeadAuthorontheSpecialReporton

GlobalWarmingof1.5°CoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.

Jane RumblejoinedthePolarRegionsDepartmentintheForeign&CommonwealthOfficein2003,andshehasbeenHeadoftheDepartmentsinceJanuary2007.Inthisrole,JaneleadsonallAntarcticissuesfortheUKGovernmentandoverseestheUK’sengagementwiththeArcticCouncil.JanewasmadeanOBEattheQueen’sBirthdayHonoursinJune2018forservicestoPolarscience,marineconservationanddiplomacy;andwasmadeanhonoraryDoctorofSciencebyLeedsUniversityinJuly2018.

Professor Julienne Stroeveisasea-icescientistatUniversityCollegeLondonwhospecialisesinremotesensingofthepolarregions.ShewasrecentlyawardedaCanada150ResearchExcellenceChairattheUniversityofManitoba.

Professor David VaughanistheDirectorofScienceattheBritishAntarcticSurvey.Hehasadistinguishedcareerinunderstandingicesheetsandthecryosphereandin2017hewasawardedanOBEforservicestoscience.

TheAntarcticPeninsulaundera1.5°Cglobalwarmingscenario–Whatchangeisitlockedinto?

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