the domino effect: a network analysis of regime shifts drivers and causal pathways
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The domino effect: A network analysis of regime shifts
drivers and causal pathways
Juan Carlos Rocha, R. Oonsie Biggs & Garry PetersonStockholm Resilience Center
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Interaction of regime shifts drivers?
Anthropocene and the likelihood of regime shifts
1. What is more important? What we should be worry about?
2. What are the possible connections among RS?
3. What are the impacts of climate change in RS?
4. Where are they more likely to happen?
Rockström et al., 2009
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Regime shifts that matter to people
Regime shift: Large, abrupt, persistent change in the structure and function of a system.
Policy relevant = Substantial change in Ecosystem Services
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Global change drivers
“...any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem. A direct driver unequivocally influences ecosystem processes. An indirect driver operates more diffusely, by altering one or more direct drivers” (MEA 2005)
Our drivers are the result of literature review for each regime shift.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
The objective of this paper is to perform an exploratory analysis of the causal interactions among global change drivers of regime shifts.
1. What are the major global change drivers of regime shifts?
2. What are the impacts of regime shifts on global change drivers?
3. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers?
RS1 RS2 RS3
D1
D1 D2 D3
RS1
RS1 RS2D1 ...
Regime shifts
Drivers
Cascading effects
Q2Q1
Q3
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Regime shift database
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Regime shift database
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Description of the alternative regimes and reinforcing feedbacks
The drivers that precipitate the regime shift
Impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being
Management options
www.regimeshifts.org
Regime shift database
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Current data: 19 Regime Shifts descriptions + CLD.
N Policy relevant Regime Shifts Mechanism Reversibility
1 Bivalves collapse Established H
2 Coral transitions Established H
3 Coral bleaching Established H
4 Desertification Contested H, I
5 Encroachment Established H
6 Eutrophication Established H, I, R
7 Fisheries collapse Contested U
8 Marine foodwebs collapse Contested U
9 Forest - Savanna Established I
10 Hypoxia Established H, R
11 Kelp transitions Established H, R
12 Soil salinization Established H, I
13 Steppe - Tundra Established I
14 Tundra - Forest Established I
15 Monsoon circulation Established I
16 Thermohaline circulation collapse Established I
17 Greenland ice sheet collapse Established I
18 Arctic salt marshes Established I
19 Arctic ice collapse Established I
Reversibility: H = Hysteretic; I = Irreversible; R= Reversible; U = Unknown
Causal-loop diagrams is a technique to map out the
feedback structure of a system (Sterman 2000)
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Centrality Definition
Degree The number edges a vertex is connected to (Newman 2010): In-degree and Out-degree
Betweenness The extent to which a vertex lies on paths between other vertices (Newman 2010)
Eigenvector A vertex is important if it is directly or indirectly connected to other vertices that are in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009), like Google PageRank
Methods: Network Analysis
Degree centrality
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Centrality Definition
Degree The number edges a vertex is connected to (Newman 2010): In-degree and Out-degree
Betweenness The extent to which a vertex lies on paths between other vertices (Newman 2010)
Eigenvector A vertex is important if it is directly or indirectly connected to other vertices that are in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009), like Google PageRank
Methods: Network Analysis
Betweenness centrality
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Centrality Definition
Degree The number edges a vertex is connected to (Newman 2010): In-degree and Out-degree
Betweenness The extent to which a vertex lies on paths between other vertices (Newman 2010)
Eigenvector A vertex is important if it is directly or indirectly connected to other vertices that are in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009), like Google PageRank
Methods: Network Analysis
Eigenvector centrality
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
1. What are the major global change drivers of regime shifts?
Arctic Ice−Sheet CollapseArctic Salt−Marshes
Tundra − ForestSteppe − Tundra
Thermohaline CirculationGreenland Ice−sheet Collapse
Marine FoodwebsMonsoon
DesertificationForest − Savanna
Bush EncroachmentSoil Salinization
Kelps TransitionsCoral Bleaching
Bivalves CollapseHypoxia
Fisheries CollapseLake Euthrophication
Coral Transitions
Drivers per Regime Shift
0 5 10 15 20
Atmospheric CO2
Floods
Nutrients input
Turbidity
Fishing
Urban growth
Erosion
Deforestation
Agriculture
Human population
Demand
Global warming
Top drivers
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
RS1 RS2 RS3
D1
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
1. What are the major global change drivers of regime shifts? RS1 RS2 RS3
D1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 19 22
Indegree
Num
ber o
f ver
tex
010
2030
4050
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 14 15 17
Outdegree
Num
ber o
f ver
tex
020
4060
80
Incoming linksOutgoing links
Num
ber
of v
erte
x
Num
ber
of v
erte
x
Few nodes have a lot of links!Tuesday, March 15, 2011
1. What are the major global change drivers of regime shifts?
0 5 10 15
05
10
Indegree
Out
degr
ee
Absorption of solar radiation
AdvectionAerosol concentration
Agriculture
Albedo
Algae
Aquifers
Arctic sea ice volume
Atmospheric CO2
Atmospheric temperature
Basal lubrication
Biodiversity
Biomass
Bivalves abundance
Brown clouds
Canopy−forming algae
Carbon extractionCarbon storage
CHL structureCO2 emissions
Consumption preferences
Convection
Coral abundance
Cropland
Cropland−Grassland area
Daily relative cooling
Deforestation
Demand
Density contrast in the water column
Disease outbreak
Dissolved oxygen
Droughts
Dust
ENSO−like events frequency
Erosion
Evaporation Evapotranspiration
Exposed soilsFeces deposition
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Fish
FishingFloods
Flushing
Forest
Fossil fuel burning FreshwaterGesseGlacier exposure to wave actionGlacier undercutting
Global warming
Grass dominance
Grazers
Grazing
Greenhouse gases
Greenland ice sheet volume
Ground water tableHabitat structural complexityHeat flux in summer
Herbivores
Human population
HuntingHurricanesIce calving ratesIce cyclonic circulationIce front retreatIce sliding velocityIce−ocean heat exchangeIllegal logging
ImmigrationImpoundmentsInfrastructure developmentInvasive species
Irrigation
Land conversionLand−Ocean pressure gradient
Land−Ocean temperature gradient
Landscape fragmentation/conversion
Latent heat releaseLeakageLifting condensation level
Lobsters and meso−predators
Local water movements
Logging industryLow tides frequency
Macroalgae abundance
Macrophytes
Meltwater drainage
Meltwater runoff
Microbial activity
Mid−predators
MoistureMonsoon circulationMortality rate
Native vegetationNekton
Noxious gasesNutrient availability
Nutrient cycling
Nutrients input
Ocean acidificationOcean anthropogenic CO2 uptake
Open surface
Open water
Openings in ice coverOrganic matterOther competitorsOverturning
Palatability
Permafrost degradationPerverse incentives Phosphorous in water
PhytoplanktonPlanktivore fish
Plankton and filamentous algae
Pollutants
Precipitation
Productivity
Rainfall deficit
Rainfall variability
RanchingRiver runoffRoughnessSalinity
Savanna
Sea surface levelSea tides
SedimentsSewage
Shadow_rooting
Shrubs
Snowing driftingSoil drainage / aerationSoil impermeability
Soil moisture
Soil productivity
Soil quality
Soil salinity
Soil temperature
Solar radiation
SpaceSST
Steppe
Stratification
Stress beneath iceSubsidiesSulfide release Surface air temperatureTechnology TemperatureThermal annomaliesThermal low pressure
Top predators
TradeTragedy of the commonsTree maturity
Tundra
Turbidity
Turf−forming algae
Unpalatability Upwellings
Urban growth
Urban storm water runoff
Urchin barren
Vapor
Vegetation
Warm water inflow Water availability
Water column density contrastWater consumption
Water demandWater densityWater infrastructure
Water mixing
Water temperature
Water vapor
Wind fetch
Wind stress
Woody plants dominance
Woody vegetationYoung thin ice in winter
Zooplankton
Zooxanthellae
RS1 RS2 RS3
D1
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
Eigenvector
Betw
eenn
ess
Absorption of solar radiation
AdvectionAerosol concentration
Agriculture
Albedo
Algae
Aquifers
Arctic sea ice volume
Atmospheric CO2
Atmospheric temperature
Basal lubrication Biodiversity
Biomass
Bivalves abundance
Brown cloudsCanopy−forming algaeCarbon extractionCarbon storage
CHL structureCO2 emissionsConsumption preferencesConvection
Coral abundance
Cropland
Cropland−Grassland area
Daily relative cooling
DeforestationDemand
Density contrast in the water column
Disease outbreak
Dissolved oxygen
Droughts
Dust
ENSO−like events frequency
Erosion
EvaporationEvapotranspiration
Exposed soilsFeces deposition Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Fish
Fishing
Floods
Flushing
Forest
Fossil fuel burning
Freshwater
GesseGlacier exposure to wave action
Glacier undercutting
Global warming
Grass dominance
GrazersGrazing
Greenhouse gases
Greenland ice sheet volume
Ground water tableHabitat structural complexity
Heat flux in summer
Herbivores
Human populationHuntingHurricanes
Ice calving ratesIce cyclonic circulation
Ice front retreat
Ice sliding velocity
Ice−ocean heat exchangeIllegal loggingImmigrationImpoundmentsInfrastructure developmentInvasive species
Irrigation
Land conversion
Land−Ocean pressure gradient
Land−Ocean temperature gradient
Landscape fragmentation/conversionLatent heat release
LeakageLifting condensation levelLobsters and meso−predatorsLocal water movementsLogging industryLow tides frequency
Macroalgae abundance
Macrophytes
Meltwater drainage
Meltwater runoffMicrobial activity
Mid−predatorsMoistureMonsoon circulation
Mortality rateNative vegetation Nekton
Noxious gases
Nutrient availabilityNutrient cycling
Nutrients input
Ocean acidification
Ocean anthropogenic CO2 uptake
Open surface
Open water
Openings in ice cover
Organic matterOther competitors
Overturning
PalatabilityPermafrost degradation
Perverse incentivesPhosphorous in water
Phytoplankton
Planktivore fishPlankton and filamentous algae
Pollutants
Precipitation
Productivity
Rainfall deficitRainfall variability
RanchingRiver runoff
Roughness
Salinity Savanna
Sea surface levelSea tides SedimentsSewage
Shadow_rooting
Shrubs
Snowing drifting
Soil drainage / aerationSoil impermeability
Soil moisture
Soil productivity
Soil quality
Soil salinitySoil temperature
Solar radiation
Space
SST
Steppe
Stratification
Stress beneath ice
SubsidiesSulfide release
Surface air temperature
TechnologyTemperature
Thermal annomalies
Thermal low pressureTop predators
TradeTragedy of the commonsTree maturityTundra
TurbidityTurf−forming algae
Unpalatability
Upwellings
Urban growthUrban storm water runoff
Urchin barrenVapor
Vegetation
Warm water inflowWater availability
Water column density contrastWater consumptionWater demand
Water density
Water infrastructure
Water mixing
Water temperatureWater vapor
Wind fetch
Wind stress
Woody plants dominance
Woody vegetation
Young thin ice in winter Zooplankton
Zooxanthellae
Local centrality Global centrality
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Marine Regime Shifts
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
Eigenvector
Betw
eenn
ess
Agriculture
Algae
Atmospheric CO2
Biodiversity
Bivalves abundance
Canopy−forming algae
Consumption preferences
Coral abundance
Daily relative coolingDeforestationDemandDensity contrast in the water column
Disease outbreak
Dissolved oxygen
DroughtsENSO−like events frequency
Erosion
Fertilizers useFish
Fishing
FloodsFlushing
Global warming
Greenhouse gases
Habitat structural complexityHerbivores
Human populationHurricanesImpoundmentsInvasive speciesIrrigationLandscape fragmentation/conversionLeakage
Lobsters and meso−predators
Local water movementsLow tides frequency
Macroalgae abundance Macrophytes
Mid−predators
Mortality rate
Nekton
Noxious gases
Nutrients input
Ocean acidificationOrganic matter
Other competitorsPerverse incentivesPhosphorous in water
Phytoplankton
Planktivore fishPlankton and filamentous algae
PollutantsPrecipitationSedimentsSewage
Space
SST
StratificationSubsidiesSulfide releaseTechnologyThermal annomalies
Thermal low pressureTop predators
TradeTragedy of the commons
TurbidityTurf−forming algae
Unpalatability
Upwellings
Urban growthUrban storm water runoff
Urchin barrenWater column density contrast
Water mixing
Water temperature
Water vapor
Wind stress
Zooplankton
Zooxanthellae
0 5 10 15
05
10
Indegree
Out
degr
ee Agriculture Algae
Atmospheric CO2
Biodiversity
Bivalves abundance
Canopy−forming algae
Consumption preferences
Coral abundance
Daily relative cooling
DeforestationDemand
Density contrast in the water column
Disease outbreak
Dissolved oxygen
Droughts
ENSO−like events frequency
Erosion
Fertilizers use
Fish
Fishing
Floods
Flushing
Global warming
Greenhouse gases
Habitat structural complexity
HerbivoresHuman population
HurricanesImpoundmentsInvasive speciesIrrigation
Landscape fragmentation/conversion
Leakage
Lobsters and meso−predators
Local water movements
Low tides frequency
Macroalgae abundance
Macrophytes
Mid−predators
Mortality rate
Nekton
Noxious gases
Nutrients input
Ocean acidificationOrganic matterOther competitors
Perverse incentivesPhosphorous in water
PhytoplanktonPlanktivore fish
Plankton and filamentous algae
Pollutants
Precipitation SedimentsSewage
Space
SST
StratificationSubsidiesSulfide releaseTechnologyThermal annomalies
Thermal low pressure
Top predators
TradeTragedy of the commons
Turbidity
Turf−forming algae
Unpalatability Upwellings
Urban growth
Urban storm water runoff
Urchin barren
Water column density contrastWater mixing
Water temperature
Water vapor
Wind stress
Zooplankton
Zooxanthellae
RS1 RS2 RS3
D1
Local centrality Global centrality
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Terrestrial Regime ShiftsRS1 RS2 RS3
D1
0 2 4 6 8
02
46
8
Indegree
Out
degr
ee
Absorption of solar radiationAdvectionAerosol concentration
AgricultureAlbedo
Aquifers
Atmospheric CO2Atmospheric temperature
BiomassBrown cloudsCarbon storage
Cropland−Grassland area Deforestation
DemandDroughts
DustENSO−like events frequency
ErosionEvapotranspiration
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Floods
Forest
Global warming
Grass dominance
Grazers
Grazing
Ground water table
Human population
Illegal loggingImmigration
Infrastructure development
Irrigation
Land conversionLand−Ocean pressure gradient
Land−Ocean temperature gradient
Latent heat releaseLifting condensation levelLogging industryMoisture
Monsoon circulation
Native vegetation
Palatability
Precipitation
Productivity
Rainfall deficit
Rainfall variability
Ranching Roughness
Savanna
Sea tidesShadow_rooting
Soil impermeability
Soil moistureSoil productivity
Soil quality Soil salinitySolar radiation
SpaceSST
Temperature
Tree maturity Vapor
VegetationWater availability
Water consumption
Water demandWater infrastructure
Wind stress
Woody plants dominance
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
Eigenvector
Betw
eenn
ess
Absorption of solar radiation
Advection
Aerosol concentration
Agriculture
Albedo
Aquifers
Atmospheric CO2
Atmospheric temperature
Biomass
Brown clouds
Carbon storage
Cropland−Grassland area
Deforestation
Demand
Droughts
DustENSO−like events frequency
Erosion
Evapotranspiration
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Floods
Forest
Global warming
Grass dominance
Grazers
Grazing
Ground water table
Human populationIllegal loggingImmigrationInfrastructure development
Irrigation
Land conversion
Land−Ocean pressure gradient
Land−Ocean temperature gradient
Latent heat release
Lifting condensation level
Logging industry
MoistureMonsoon circulation
Native vegetation
Palatability
Precipitation
Productivity
Rainfall deficitRainfall variability
RanchingRoughness
Savanna
Sea tides
Shadow_rooting
Soil impermeability
Soil moisture
Soil productivity
Soil quality
Soil salinitySolar radiation
Space
SSTTemperature Tree maturity
Vapor
VegetationWater availability
Water consumptionWater demand
Water infrastructure
Wind stress
Woody plants dominance
Local centrality Global centrality
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
2. What are the impacts of regime shifts on global change drivers?
Water infrastructureUpwellings
StratificationLand conversionInvasive species
GrazingENSO−like events frequency
DroughtsDemand
DeforestationAgriculture
Water demandNutrients input
IrrigationErosion
Disease outbreaksAtmospheric CO2
TurbidityGlobal warming
FishingFire frequency
How many regime shifts reinforce this driver?
0 1 2 3 4
Steppe − TundraKelps Transitions
Arctic Ice−sheet CollapseArctic Salt−Marshes
Thermohaline CirculationTundra − Forest
Fisheries CollapseLake EuthrophicationBush Encroachment
Coral TransitionsCoral Bleaching
Greenland Ice−sheet CollapseHypoxia
Bivalves CollapseMonsoon
Forest − SavannaMarine Foodwebs
Soil SalinizationDesertification
How many drivers are actually reinforced by regime shifts dynamics?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D1 D2 D3
RS1
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Arctic Icesheet collapse
Bivalves collapseCoral bleaching
Coral transitions
Desertification
Encroachment
EutrophicationFisheries collapse
Foodwebs
Forest to savanna
Greenland icesheet collapse
Hypoxia
Kelp transitions
Monsoon
Soil salinization
Thermohaline
Arctic salt marsh
Steppe to Tundra
Tundra to Forest
3. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers? Reported by RSDB
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Up to 68 new inconvenient feedbacks when coupling regime shifts pairs (e.g. Marine foodwebs collapse & Kelps transitions)
Most feedbacks are dominated by changes on biodiversity dynamics.
Paths with shared drivers but non-forming feedback are not included.
3. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers? RS1 RS2D1 ...
Bivalves.collapse
Coral.Bleaching
Coral.Transitions
Lake.Eutrophication
Fisheries.collapse
Marine.foodwebs
Hypoxia
Kelps
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Up to 159 new feedbacks, e.g. when coupling desertification and bush encroachment.
Most feedbacks include climate - vegetation interactions.
Scaling up and down dynamics characterize the couplings.
3. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers? RS1 RS2D1 ...
Desertification
Bush.Encroachment
Forest...SavannaSoil.Salinization
Monsoon
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Summary1. What are the major
global change drivers of regime shifts?
2.
Marine: - Nutrient inputs - Fishing
Terrestrial: - Fire frequency - Deforestation - Agriculture
2. What are the impacts of regime shifts on global change drivers?
4.
Drivers more reinforced: - Fire frequency - Turbidity - Fishing - Global warming
Drivers more reinforced: - Fire frequency - Turbidity - Fishing - Global warming
3. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers?
Inconvenient feedbacks dominated by change in biodiversity
Inconvenient feedbacks dominated by scaling up/down dynamics
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Regime shifts are tightly connected. The management of immediate causes or well studied variables might not be enough to avoid such catastrophes.
Agricultural processes and global warming are the main causes of regime shifts.
Network analysis might be a useful approach to address causality relationships
Interaction of regime shifts drivers?
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Thanks! Drs. Oonsie Biggs & Garry Peterson for their supervision
RSDB folks for inspiring discussion and writing examples
SRC for an inspiring research space and funding!
What is a regime shift? Science pub May 2009 - SRC
Questions??e-mail: juan.rocha@stockholmresilience.su.seTwitter: @juanrochaBlog: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Q4. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers?
6.5 · 106 possible paths
Longest path 6 degrees
Average distance 2.37
Sample: 400 shortest pathways
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Q4. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers?
Coral transitions
Coral bleaching
Tundra to forest
Kelp transitions
Hypoxia
Steppe to tundra
Fisheries collapse
Bivalves collapse
Lake eutrophication
Bush encroachment
Soil salinization
0 20 40 60 80
Domino effect
Strong Weak Fake
6.5 · 106 possible paths
Longest path 6 degrees
Average distance 2.37
Sample: 400 shortest pathways
- Spatial mismatch of drivers and ecosystem processes
(fragmentation)
- Demographic & economic drivers
- Spatial adjacency is required
- Agriculture related drivers- Physical processes: climate
change
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Q4. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers?
Exacerbation of feedback loops
Neighborhood effect
Diffuse connections
Cascading-down interactions
Cascading-up interactions
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
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