the economics of air quality and associated policy responses - ton manders

15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders

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The economics of air quality and associated policy responses

15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders

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Content

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050

Co-benefits

Costs and benefits

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Urban air pollution to become top by 2050

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

ParticulateMatter

Ground-levelozone

Unsafe WaterSupply and…

Indoor AirPollution

Malaria

Deaths (millions of people)

2010

2030

2050

Global premature deaths from selected environmental risks: Baseline, 2010 to 2050

Urban air pollution worse than WHO guidelines

15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders 4

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OECD

Brazil

Russia

India

Indonesia

China

Africa

South…

μg/m3

2010

2030

2050

WHO Air Quality Guideline

20

PM10 concentration in major cities: Baseline, 2010-2050

Premature deaths (PM) more than double

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0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Death

s (

mill

ions o

f people

)

OECD BRIICS RoW

Premature deaths worldwide from exposure to PM: Baseline

OECD high premature death rates from ground-level ozone

15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

OECD India South +SE Asia Other countries

De

ath

s p

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mill

ion

in

ha

bita

nts

2010 2030 2050

Premature deaths linked to ground-level ozone worldwide: Baseline Number of deaths per million inhabitants

Co-benefits of Air Pollution Policy

Air pollution policy depends on end-of-pipe controls (< 50%)

Required emission reduction will come from changes in the use of energy (>50%)

– efficiency improvements

– fuel switching

– other structural changes in the economy.

Greenhouse gas emissions decrease, which renders climate change policies less costly.

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Costs and benefits - general

Methodology

– Discounting

– Valuation (VOLY)

– Scope

Costs

– Agriculture (NH3, manure)

– Transport (inland shipping), consumers

– Manufacturing, refineries

Benefits

– Health (premature deaths)

– Nature

– Economic

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Costs and benefits - Netherlands

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Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 2030

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Health impacts: years of life lost, 2030

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Sea-based versus land-based air policies: cost and benefits and cost-effectiveness compared

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Good is not alway best - optimal policy

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Take away

Air quality/pollution is a policy topic of sustained importance globally into the future

Air quality/pollution policies can carry high benefits and reasonably low costs

There are however, many complexities and considerations in terms of weighing up the costs and benefits of actions in the context of broader policy decisions

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References

OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, OECD

PBL (2012), Air Pollution Policy in Europe: Quantifying the Interaction with Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Policies, PBL Working Paper 7 / CPB Discussion Paper 220

PBL (2012), Assessment of the environmental impacts and health benefits of a nitrogen emission control area in the North Sea, PBL Policy S

ton.manders@pbl.nl

15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders 16