the economics of air quality and associated policy responses - ton manders
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15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders
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The economics of air quality and associated policy responses
15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders
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Content
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050
Co-benefits
Costs and benefits
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Urban air pollution to become top by 2050
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
ParticulateMatter
Ground-levelozone
Unsafe WaterSupply and…
Indoor AirPollution
Malaria
Deaths (millions of people)
2010
2030
2050
Global premature deaths from selected environmental risks: Baseline, 2010 to 2050
Urban air pollution worse than WHO guidelines
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
OECD
Brazil
Russia
India
Indonesia
China
Africa
South…
μg/m3
2010
2030
2050
WHO Air Quality Guideline
20
PM10 concentration in major cities: Baseline, 2010-2050
Premature deaths (PM) more than double
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Death
s (
mill
ions o
f people
)
OECD BRIICS RoW
Premature deaths worldwide from exposure to PM: Baseline
OECD high premature death rates from ground-level ozone
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
OECD India South +SE Asia Other countries
De
ath
s p
er
mill
ion
in
ha
bita
nts
2010 2030 2050
Premature deaths linked to ground-level ozone worldwide: Baseline Number of deaths per million inhabitants
Co-benefits of Air Pollution Policy
Air pollution policy depends on end-of-pipe controls (< 50%)
Required emission reduction will come from changes in the use of energy (>50%)
– efficiency improvements
– fuel switching
– other structural changes in the economy.
Greenhouse gas emissions decrease, which renders climate change policies less costly.
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Costs and benefits - general
Methodology
– Discounting
– Valuation (VOLY)
– Scope
Costs
– Agriculture (NH3, manure)
– Transport (inland shipping), consumers
– Manufacturing, refineries
Benefits
– Health (premature deaths)
– Nature
– Economic
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Costs and benefits - Netherlands
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Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 2030
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Health impacts: years of life lost, 2030
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Sea-based versus land-based air policies: cost and benefits and cost-effectiveness compared
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Good is not alway best - optimal policy
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Take away
Air quality/pollution is a policy topic of sustained importance globally into the future
Air quality/pollution policies can carry high benefits and reasonably low costs
There are however, many complexities and considerations in terms of weighing up the costs and benefits of actions in the context of broader policy decisions
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References
OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, OECD
PBL (2012), Air Pollution Policy in Europe: Quantifying the Interaction with Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Policies, PBL Working Paper 7 / CPB Discussion Paper 220
PBL (2012), Assessment of the environmental impacts and health benefits of a nitrogen emission control area in the North Sea, PBL Policy S
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