the global steel industry in the post pandemic era514edba3-1429-47da...16 november 2020 1 the global...
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Nae Hee Han | Director, Economic StudiesWorld Steel Association16 November 2020
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The global steel industry in the post pandemic era
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▌Disclaimer
This document is protected by copyright. Distribution to third parties or reproduction in any format is not permitted without written permission from worldsteel. worldsteel operates under the strictest antitrust guidelines. Visit worldsteel.org\About us for detailed antitrust guidelines.
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The short-term impact of COVID-19 on steel demand
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0123456789
10
World Adv econ Em econ US EU Japan China India Brazil Russia
Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20%
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
World Adv econ Em econ US EU Japan China India Brazil Russia
Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20%
Source: IHSMarkit
V-shaped recovery thanks to the release of pent-up demand, but since August, the momentum is levelling off. Fear of second waves further clouds recovery prospects. The recovery will be uneven
Better than expected post lockdown recovery led to an upward revision of the GDP outlook globally except for India. Still, a deep economic downturn is inevitable
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Weak confidence, high level of unemployment anddamages to supply chains point to a slow recoveryfor years to come. Emerging economies are morevulnerable to the pandemic shock
2020 GDP forecast revisions, %
2021 GDP forecast revisions, %
Global economic outlook
-
▌Global overviewSteel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
5
2020 (forecasts)
Mt Mt Mt1 725.1
-2.4%
2019
1 766.7
3.5% / 1.3%*
2021 (forecasts)
1 795.1
4.1%
Mt = Million tonnes
*World growth rates based on adjusted Chinese growth rates
db
201620172018201920202021
Austria3.8364.0954.1853.9793.4653.598
Belgium-Luxembourg4.3864.5574.6394.6394.3144.659
Czech Republic6.9007.2007.6007.2006.5006.810
Finland1.7061.9771.9601.7391.4801.630
France13.02414.12614.08213.80111.73012.669
Germany40.45441.00039.64835.03229.68733.656
Hungary2.5382.6592.7852.7612.4872.586
Italy23.70424.84425.28924.97719.60722.666
Netherlands4.0223.9814.8324.5864.3134.587
Poland13.14813.60114.89513.63312.10912.440
Slovak Republic2.2562.4402.5542.4572.2362.460
Slovenia1.0941.2431.3711.2521.1501.250
Spain12.57613.25813.83713.24010.85512.395
Sweden3.8734.1264.0633.8013.5353.818
United Kingdom10.88311.00310.82210.1898.1509.641
Rest of EU (28)13.71313.61315.00415.06312.68914.173
European Union (28)158.114163.724167.567158.349134.307149.037
European Union (15)124.361128.914129.741122.387102.499115.354
Turkey34.07735.92630.73525.99828.60032.000
Rest of Other Europe6.4836.4826.8017.7966.5517.341
Other Europe40.56042.40837.53633.79435.15139.341
Kazakhstan2.3152.6302.4982.6222.4382.633
Russia38.74940.86141.42243.70039.98641.985
Ukraine4.2454.5604.6834.6553.9574.313
Rest of CIS5.7426.3406.9957.9247.2107.606
CIS51.05254.39155.59758.90153.59056.537
Canada13.36114.04015.11613.00011.00011.700
Mexico25.48726.50925.99424.61921.32022.877
United States91.86197.72299.77597.65082.25187.644
USMCA130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221
Argentina4.2064.9204.8263.9193.3233.485
Brazil18.52019.52321.20720.97719.98821.329
Chile2.6072.7592.7052.8192.1702.450
Colombia3.6603.5503.6543.5762.7533.166
Peru2.9653.6592.9813.0082.5552.989
Venezuela0.6780.5110.1700.1190.0780.096
Rest of C & S America7.1027.1897.3957.2166.5556.988
Central & South America39.73842.11142.93741.63337.42340.504
Algeria5.6885.8135.4285.5825.0245.275
Egypt11.68310.17811.06710.3549.15510.007
Morocco2.8593.0312.9773.0362.6722.859
South Africa4.9704.7394.6634.4703.1683.700
Rest of Africa12.41010.79312.12212.96810.57711.585
Africa37.61034.55436.25736.41130.59633.426
12.652-5.553-5.809
Iran19.10519.95719.55818.49014.79216.567
Saudi Arabia12.20011.8348.6008.6527.2977.468
United Arab Emirates7.8337.9317.8657.5915.5535.809
Rest of the Middle East13.94513.44213.60613.14310.87911.069
Middle East53.08353.16449.62947.87638.52140.913
681.020773.840836.050907.460916.600916.600
China681.020773.840836.050907.460980.057980.057
India83.64388.68096.737102.62281.863100.443
Indonesia12.67313.59215.08215.94314.98616.005
Japan62.17164.38265.41163.20650.80054.900
Malaysia10.2569.4439.7769.2267.8428.312
Philippines9.6779.81910.7269.8478.8629.544
Singapore2.8322.7202.8912.3192.2002.300
South Korea57.07656.31353.71053.22348.87750.758
Taiwan, China18.27717.65317.85317.62317.43617.693
Thailand20.77719.03819.23518.42016.81717.524
Vietnam22.32821.63722.31224.32024.56325.914
Rest of Asia20.91720.70520.34923.64220.51423.285
Asia1001.6461097.8221170.1311247.8501274.8181306.737
Australia5.8495.4415.5005.5005.1005.300
New Zealand0.7560.7880.8150.8100.7500.780
Other Oceania0.3430.3260.2870.2950.2730.284
Oceania6.9486.5556.6026.6056.1236.364
Asia & Oceania1008.5951104.3771176.7331254.4551280.9421313.101
2.0003.0003.0004.000
World1519.4601632.9991707.1401766.6891725.1011795.080
World excl. China838.440859.159871.090859.229745.044815.023
BRIC821.932922.904995.4161074.7591121.8931143.814
MENA72.56771.16267.98265.85354.76258.435
Developed Economies393.186405.287409.109393.442336.750363.460
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)1126.2741227.7121298.0311373.2471388.3511431.620
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China445.254453.872461.981465.787408.294451.563
World excl. BRIC697.528710.095711.724691.930603.208651.266
Developing Asia858.974954.5671027.9511109.1401153.3071178.791
Developing Asia excl. China177.954180.727191.901201.680173.250198.734
ASEAN (5)75.71173.52977.13277.75573.07177.300
Developed Asia142.673143.255142.180138.710121.512127.945
Northern Europe84.29387.01286.43579.98568.53376.350
Southern Europe40.06741.90243.30742.40233.96639.005
Middle East excl. Iran33.97833.20730.07129.38623.72924.346
MENA excl. Iran53.46251.20548.42447.36339.97141.869
GCC24.62824.39220.84120.24315.85016.049
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa9.8948.7099.93910.6578.5259.378
World excl. China and EU680.327695.435703.523700.880610.737665.986
130.7090749138.2708093140.8846913135.2697676114.5714827122.2208779
European Union (13)33.752994734.809145837.8253235.962315731.807636749933.6828231624
The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)9.232157789.96779.339619579.402442077.478720398.60576704
Mercosur23.90785525.453564526.851525.53935623.87408125.4175475
North Africa22.74621.10530621.65451221.28387418.90230120.34789
Sub-Saharan Africa14.86401513.44859614.60198915.12679711.693437613.07798136
presentation
20192020 (forecasts)2021 (forecasts)
MtMtMt
1,766.71,725.11,795.1
3.5% / 1.3%*-2.4%4.1%
-
Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
▌Regional overview
6
-5.5
-10.0
5.9
-4.0 -3.0
0.4
-3.5 -2.4
5.1 4.01.3
-15.2
4.0
-9.0
-15.3
-10.1
-16.0
-19.5
-12.4-14.1
8.0
-2.4
11.0 11.9
5.5 6.78.2 9.3
6.25.3
14.7
0.0
4.1
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
European Union(28)
Other Europe CIS USMCA Central & SouthAmerica
Africa Middle East Developed Asia Developing Asiaexcl. China
China World
% 2019* 2020 2021
2021 (Mt)
149.2 39.3 56.5 122.2 40.5 33.4 40.9 127.9 980.1 1 795.1198.7
*World growth rates based on adjusted Chinese growth rates
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Crisis impact on sectors: 2009 vs 2020
-3.2
-23.9
-16.9
-3.9-1.3
-6.3-5.4
-21.6
-6.6
-5.6
-4.6
-2.4
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Construction
Automotive
Mechanicalmachinery
Investments
GDP
Steel demand
2009
2020 (f)
Steel demand
Global financial crisis vs COVID-19 crisisComparison by sector
7
COVID-19 impact on GDP and investment is larger than global financial crisis (GFC), but the impact on global steel demand is milder
The automotive sector is the hardest hit steel using sector in both crises, while the mechanical machinery sector contracts less with COVID-19 crisis
Source: worldsteel, IHS Markit
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8
Impact on steel demand milder than GFC, for advanced economies, but from a low level
Some emerging economies harder hit by COVID-19 than by GFC, in particular India & MENA
2009 vs 2020Developed economies
%
09/08 10/09 20/19 21/20World -6.3 14.1 -2.4 4.1
Developed -33.3 24.9 -14.4 7.9United States -39.8 34.9 -15.8 6.6European Union (28) -35.0 20.9 -15.2 11.0
France -28.3 18.8 -15.0 8.0Germany -33.4 28.5 -15.3 13.4Italy -39.7 27.8 -21.5 15.6Spain -34.0 10.0 -18.0 14.2
Japan -32.3 20.4 -19.6 8.1South Korea -22.5 15.4 -8.2 3.8
GFC SRO Oct 20
Global financial crisis vs COVID-19 crisisComparison by region
Recovery will be slower for both developed and emerging than the post GFC era
%
09/08 10/09 20/19 21/20World -6.3 14.1 -2.4 4.1
China 23.4 6.6 8.0 0.0Emerging & Developing excl. China
-10.0 17.3 -12.3 10.6
India 12.5 12.2 -20.2 22.7ASEAN (5) -7.9 17.2 -6.0 5.8MENA 4.9 -1.4 -16.8 6.7Russia -30.0 48.0 -8.5 5.0Mexico -14.4 17.0 -13.4 7.3Brazil -22.8 43.6 -4.7 6.7
GFC SRO Oct 202009 vs 2020Developing economies
db
201620172018201920202021
Austria3.8364.0954.1853.9793.4653.598
Belgium-Luxembourg4.3864.5574.6394.6394.3144.659
Czech Republic6.9007.2007.6007.2006.5006.810
Finland1.7061.9771.9601.7391.4801.630
France13.02414.12614.08213.80111.73012.669
Germany40.45441.00039.64835.03229.68733.656
Hungary2.5382.6592.7852.7612.4872.586
Italy23.70424.84425.28924.97719.60722.666
Netherlands4.0223.9814.8324.5864.3134.587
Poland13.14813.60114.89513.63312.10912.440
Slovak Republic2.2562.4402.5542.4572.2362.460
Slovenia1.0941.2431.3711.2521.1501.250
Spain12.57613.25813.83713.24010.85512.395
Sweden3.8734.1264.0633.8013.5353.818
United Kingdom10.88311.00310.82210.1898.1509.641
Rest of EU (28)13.71313.61315.00415.06312.68914.173
European Union (28)158.114163.724167.567158.349134.307149.037
European Union (15)124.361128.914129.741122.387102.499115.354
Turkey34.07735.92630.73525.99828.60032.000
Rest of Other Europe6.4836.4826.8017.7966.5517.341
Other Europe40.56042.40837.53633.79435.15139.341
Kazakhstan2.3152.6302.4982.6222.4382.633
Russia38.74940.86141.42243.70039.98641.985
Ukraine4.2454.5604.6834.6553.9574.313
Rest of CIS5.7426.3406.9957.9247.2107.606
CIS51.05254.39155.59758.90153.59056.537
Canada13.36114.04015.11613.00011.00011.700
Mexico25.48726.50925.99424.61921.32022.877
United States91.86197.72299.77597.65082.25187.644
USMCA130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221
Argentina4.2064.9204.8263.9193.3233.485
Brazil18.52019.52321.20720.97719.98821.329
Chile2.6072.7592.7052.8192.1702.450
Colombia3.6603.5503.6543.5762.7533.166
Peru2.9653.6592.9813.0082.5552.989
Venezuela0.6780.5110.1700.1190.0780.096
Rest of C & S America7.1027.1897.3957.2166.5556.988
Central & South America39.73842.11142.93741.63337.42340.504
Algeria5.6885.8135.4285.5825.0245.275
Egypt11.68310.17811.06710.3549.15510.007
Morocco2.8593.0312.9773.0362.6722.859
South Africa4.9704.7394.6634.4703.1683.700
Rest of Africa12.41010.79312.12212.96810.57711.585
Africa37.61034.55436.25736.41130.59633.426
12.652-5.553-5.809
Iran19.10519.95719.55818.49014.79216.567
Saudi Arabia12.20011.8348.6008.6527.2977.468
United Arab Emirates7.8337.9317.8657.5915.5535.809
Rest of the Middle East13.94513.44213.60613.14310.87911.069
Middle East53.08353.16449.62947.87638.52140.913
681.020773.840836.050907.460916.600916.600
China681.020773.840836.050907.460980.057980.057
India83.64388.68096.737102.62281.863100.443
Indonesia12.67313.59215.08215.94314.98616.005
Japan62.17164.38265.41163.20650.80054.900
Malaysia10.2569.4439.7769.2267.8428.312
Philippines9.6779.81910.7269.8478.8629.544
Singapore2.8322.7202.8912.3192.2002.300
South Korea57.07656.31353.71053.22348.87750.758
Taiwan, China18.27717.65317.85317.62317.43617.693
Thailand20.77719.03819.23518.42016.81717.524
Vietnam22.32821.63722.31224.32024.56325.914
Rest of Asia20.91720.70520.34923.64220.51423.285
Asia1,001.6461,097.8221,170.1311,247.8501,274.8181,306.737
Australia5.8495.4415.5005.5005.1005.300
New Zealand0.7560.7880.8150.8100.7500.780
Other Oceania0.3430.3260.2870.2950.2730.284
Oceania6.9486.5556.6026.6056.1236.364
Asia & Oceania1,008.5951,104.3771,176.7331,254.4551,280.9421,313.101
2.0003.0003.0004.000
World1,519.4601,632.9991,707.1401,766.6891,725.1011,795.080
World excl. China838.440859.159871.090859.229745.044815.023
BRIC821.932922.904995.4161,074.7591,121.8931,143.814
MENA72.56771.16267.98265.85354.76258.435
Developed Economies393.186405.287409.109393.442336.750363.460
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)1,126.2741,227.7121,298.0311,373.2471,388.3511,431.620
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China445.254453.872461.981465.787408.294451.563
World excl. BRIC697.528710.095711.724691.930603.208651.266
Developing Asia858.974954.5671,027.9511,109.1401,153.3071,178.791
Developing Asia excl. China177.954180.727191.901201.680173.250198.734
ASEAN (5)75.71173.52977.13277.75573.07177.300
Developed Asia142.673143.255142.180138.710121.512127.945
Northern Europe84.29387.01286.43579.98568.53376.350
Southern Europe40.06741.90243.30742.40233.96639.005
Middle East excl. Iran33.97833.20730.07129.38623.72924.346
MENA excl. Iran53.46251.20548.42447.36339.97141.869
GCC24.62824.39220.84120.24315.85016.049
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa9.8948.7099.93910.6578.5259.378
World excl. China and EU680.327695.435703.523700.880610.737665.986
130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221
European Union (13)33.75334.80937.82535.96231.80833.683
The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)9.2329.9689.3409.4027.4798.606
Mercosur23.90825.45426.85225.53923.87425.418
North Africa22.74621.10521.65521.28418.90220.348
Sub-Saharan Africa14.86413.44914.60215.12711.69313.078
presentation
%
GFCSRO Oct 20
09/0810/0920/1921/20
World-6.314.1-2.44.1
Developed-33.324.9-14.47.9
United States-39.834.9-15.86.6
European Union (28)-35.020.9-15.211.0
France-28.318.8-15.08.0
Germany-33.428.5-15.313.4
Italy-39.727.8-21.515.6
Spain-34.010.0-18.014.2
Japan-32.320.4-19.68.1
South Korea-22.515.4-8.23.8
db
201620172018201920202021
Austria3.8364.0954.1853.9793.4653.598
Belgium-Luxembourg4.3864.5574.6394.6394.3144.659
Czech Republic6.9007.2007.6007.2006.5006.810
Finland1.7061.9771.9601.7391.4801.630
France13.02414.12614.08213.80111.73012.669
Germany40.45441.00039.64835.03229.68733.656
Hungary2.5382.6592.7852.7612.4872.586
Italy23.70424.84425.28924.97719.60722.666
Netherlands4.0223.9814.8324.5864.3134.587
Poland13.14813.60114.89513.63312.10912.440
Slovak Republic2.2562.4402.5542.4572.2362.460
Slovenia1.0941.2431.3711.2521.1501.250
Spain12.57613.25813.83713.24010.85512.395
Sweden3.8734.1264.0633.8013.5353.818
United Kingdom10.88311.00310.82210.1898.1509.641
Rest of EU (28)13.71313.61315.00415.06312.68914.173
European Union (28)158.114163.724167.567158.349134.307149.037
European Union (15)124.361128.914129.741122.387102.499115.354
Turkey34.07735.92630.73525.99828.60032.000
Rest of Other Europe6.4836.4826.8017.7966.5517.341
Other Europe40.56042.40837.53633.79435.15139.341
Kazakhstan2.3152.6302.4982.6222.4382.633
Russia38.74940.86141.42243.70039.98641.985
Ukraine4.2454.5604.6834.6553.9574.313
Rest of CIS5.7426.3406.9957.9247.2107.606
CIS51.05254.39155.59758.90153.59056.537
Canada13.36114.04015.11613.00011.00011.700
Mexico25.48726.50925.99424.61921.32022.877
United States91.86197.72299.77597.65082.25187.644
USMCA130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221
Argentina4.2064.9204.8263.9193.3233.485
Brazil18.52019.52321.20720.97719.98821.329
Chile2.6072.7592.7052.8192.1702.450
Colombia3.6603.5503.6543.5762.7533.166
Peru2.9653.6592.9813.0082.5552.989
Venezuela0.6780.5110.1700.1190.0780.096
Rest of C & S America7.1027.1897.3957.2166.5556.988
Central & South America39.73842.11142.93741.63337.42340.504
Algeria5.6885.8135.4285.5825.0245.275
Egypt11.68310.17811.06710.3549.15510.007
Morocco2.8593.0312.9773.0362.6722.859
South Africa4.9704.7394.6634.4703.1683.700
Rest of Africa12.41010.79312.12212.96810.57711.585
Africa37.61034.55436.25736.41130.59633.426
12.652-5.553-5.809
Iran19.10519.95719.55818.49014.79216.567
Saudi Arabia12.20011.8348.6008.6527.2977.468
United Arab Emirates7.8337.9317.8657.5915.5535.809
Rest of the Middle East13.94513.44213.60613.14310.87911.069
Middle East53.08353.16449.62947.87638.52140.913
681.020773.840836.050907.460916.600916.600
China681.020773.840836.050907.460980.057980.057
India83.64388.68096.737102.62281.863100.443
Indonesia12.67313.59215.08215.94314.98616.005
Japan62.17164.38265.41163.20650.80054.900
Malaysia10.2569.4439.7769.2267.8428.312
Philippines9.6779.81910.7269.8478.8629.544
Singapore2.8322.7202.8912.3192.2002.300
South Korea57.07656.31353.71053.22348.87750.758
Taiwan, China18.27717.65317.85317.62317.43617.693
Thailand20.77719.03819.23518.42016.81717.524
Vietnam22.32821.63722.31224.32024.56325.914
Rest of Asia20.91720.70520.34923.64220.51423.285
Asia1,001.6461,097.8221,170.1311,247.8501,274.8181,306.737
Australia5.8495.4415.5005.5005.1005.300
New Zealand0.7560.7880.8150.8100.7500.780
Other Oceania0.3430.3260.2870.2950.2730.284
Oceania6.9486.5556.6026.6056.1236.364
Asia & Oceania1,008.5951,104.3771,176.7331,254.4551,280.9421,313.101
2.0003.0003.0004.000
World1,519.4601,632.9991,707.1401,766.6891,725.1011,795.080
World excl. China838.440859.159871.090859.229745.044815.023
BRIC821.932922.904995.4161,074.7591,121.8931,143.814
MENA72.56771.16267.98265.85354.76258.435
Developed Economies393.186405.287409.109393.442336.750363.460
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)1,126.2741,227.7121,298.0311,373.2471,388.3511,431.620
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China445.254453.872461.981465.787408.294451.563
World excl. BRIC697.528710.095711.724691.930603.208651.266
Developing Asia858.974954.5671,027.9511,109.1401,153.3071,178.791
Developing Asia excl. China177.954180.727191.901201.680173.250198.734
ASEAN (5)75.71173.52977.13277.75573.07177.300
Developed Asia142.673143.255142.180138.710121.512127.945
Northern Europe84.29387.01286.43579.98568.53376.350
Southern Europe40.06741.90243.30742.40233.96639.005
Middle East excl. Iran33.97833.20730.07129.38623.72924.346
MENA excl. Iran53.46251.20548.42447.36339.97141.869
GCC24.62824.39220.84120.24315.85016.049
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa9.8948.7099.93910.6578.5259.378
World excl. China and EU680.327695.435703.523700.880610.737665.986
130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221
European Union (13)33.75334.80937.82535.96231.80833.683
The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)9.2329.9689.3409.4027.4798.606
Mercosur23.90825.45426.85225.53923.87425.418
North Africa22.74621.10521.65521.28418.90220.348
Sub-Saharan Africa14.86413.44914.60215.12711.69313.078
presentation
%
GFCSRO Oct 20
09/0810/0920/1921/20
World-6.314.1-2.44.1
China23.46.68.00.0
Emerging & Developing excl. China-10.017.3-12.310.6
India12.512.2-20.222.7
ASEAN (5)-7.917.2-6.05.8
MENA4.9-1.4-16.86.7
Russia-30.048.0-8.55.0
Mexico-14.417.0-13.47.3
Brazil-22.843.6-4.76.7
-
▌Evolution of regional shares in steel demandSteel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
9
40.8%45.2%
47.7%51.8%52.7%
58.1%58.3%
61.3%63.7%
74.1%71.7%72.1%73.2%
74.9%73.5%73.7%74.1%75.2%76.0%
77.7%80.5%
79.8%
59.2%54.8%52.3%48.2%47.3%41.9%41.7%38.7%36.3%25.9%28.3%27.9%26.8%25.1%26.5%26.3%25.9%24.8%24.0%22.3%19.5%20.2%
16.6%20.7%
23.6%27.5%
28.6%33.5%33.3%34.2%
36.3%47.8%
44.7%45.2%45.7%
48.0%45.8%
44.6%44.8%
47.4%49.0%
51.4%56.8%
54.6%
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Emerging & Developing Economies Developed Economies China
db
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Austria2.9133.0293.1373.1373.2973.4784.0764.0903.8853.1053.5103.8943.6583.5663.6063.9053.8364.0954.1853.9793.4653.598
Belgium-Luxembourg5.7005.4004.4804.0404.7604.6005.5005.6005.4004.1004.6115.0344.2484.1914.3234.3294.3864.5574.6394.6394.3144.659
Czech Republic3.9103.9904.1784.4145.1785.2355.9706.5686.5364.5065.5206.0635.8505.8656.1956.6006.9007.2007.6007.2006.5006.810
Finland2.3422.1592.0552.0002.1582.1032.3782.5412.3131.5601.4041.1161.9171.7201.7091.7091.7061.9771.9601.7391.4801.630
France18.09116.42916.38015.70016.62114.84216.16016.61915.32810.99813.06514.01312.60812.60912.52513.23213.02414.12614.08213.80111.73012.669
Germany38.58937.44435.45133.48736.25835.25839.22242.72042.36728.20536.23840.71237.49738.01339.64239.13740.45441.00039.64835.03229.68733.656
Hungary1.7911.8122.0242.1152.1222.0232.2412.6492.7301.5331.7771.8881.7061.8632.0862.3432.5382.6592.7852.7612.4872.586
Italy30.08730.11529.47431.80033.20031.63136.44235.93033.28920.07525.65226.55021.51921.90421.92824.48823.70424.84425.28924.97719.60722.666
Netherlands4.7074.7264.0723.4513.4773.5003.6435.2284.7483.0233.5184.0814.0263.7423.4633.4964.0223.9814.8324.5864.3134.587
Poland7.5737.1067.0807.7168.4708.37410.66212.05111.5178.1949.95211.02110.40610.39712.27812.57913.14813.60114.89513.63312.10912.440
Slovak Republic1.2551.2841.3581.4811.5311.4911.9422.2942.1361.3861.8001.8431.8392.0172.1412.2262.2562.4402.5542.4572.2362.460
Slovenia0.9781.0281.0410.9841.1581.0471.2031.3961.2480.8750.8830.9240.8840.8510.8011.0311.0941.2431.3711.2521.1501.250
Spain17.40018.90019.69020.95921.11220.89523.64124.50017.99711.87613.06813.11410.43310.92311.59912.70712.57613.25813.83713.24010.85512.395
Sweden3.7513.2293.2653.5663.9994.1024.4694.8564.3392.5693.6403.8923.5023.5903.3883.3743.8734.1264.0633.8013.5353.818
United Kingdom13.83913.83113.31513.14214.33812.54714.14314.31713.0347.9099.85310.1859.6799.59210.68010.49410.88311.00310.82210.1898.1509.641
Rest of EU (28)14.04113.93215.60815.44916.32116.03919.87121.69019.68711.36712.13312.62210.94311.53712.61412.69613.71313.61315.00415.06312.68914.173
European Union (28)166.967164.414162.608163.441174.000167.165191.562203.048186.554121.280146.622156.952140.714142.379148.978154.346158.114163.724167.567158.349134.307149.0370.16132012050.168912630.1657472420.15162536830.10521220850.11146648480.11066769070.09734045050.0921787230.0960217750.10249929990.10405906430.10025944760.09815645270.08963034870.07785455680.0830253139
European Union (15)146.374144.012141.024140.836148.336141.643160.269167.136152.29899.550120.457128.081113.961115.183118.168122.257124.361128.914129.741122.387102.499115.354
Turkey13.0708.70711.28613.65515.22118.44021.22223.77021.45318.02623.56726.93128.46831.30130.77334.38134.07735.92630.73525.99828.60032.000
Rest of Other Europe4.4314.5924.3534.1474.8545.7227.2166.4916.2985.1395.2445.7285.5905.6056.2385.7176.4836.4826.8017.7966.5517.341
Other Europe17.50113.29915.63917.80220.07524.16228.43830.26127.75223.16528.81132.65934.05836.90637.01140.09840.56042.40837.53633.79435.15139.341
Kazakhstan0.9010.9000.9671.4001.8242.3052.3832.9952.3972.6372.1052.2272.7813.4902.7572.6842.3152.6302.4982.6222.4382.633
Russia20.44022.21221.23325.14526.28629.33034.91840.37935.46724.82836.74541.49042.79343.31043.14639.82438.74940.86141.42243.70039.98641.985
Ukraine4.8955.7865.5466.4205.7635.7176.6438.0526.6993.9225.4806.3326.1485.5694.2323.3094.2454.5604.6834.6553.9574.313
Rest of CIS2.7642.4472.5113.8484.2574.4144.9205.5976.1975.7135.8786.0757.3497.7987.5566.5965.7426.3406.9957.9247.2107.606
CIS29.00031.34530.25736.81338.12941.76748.86457.02250.76037.10150.20856.12559.07260.16757.69152.41351.05254.39155.59758.90153.59056.537
Canada17.80215.17315.81115.61217.38316.84318.11815.51114.6759.53114.09014.17115.57514.80015.77512.93513.36114.04015.11613.00011.00011.700
Mexico13.87412.80213.59114.09615.30515.27917.13317.10617.73715.17517.76019.80420.91120.57423.47224.88125.48726.50925.99424.61921.32022.877
United States120.012106.008107.253100.847117.371105.380119.601108.28598.40959.20679.89789.20096.20095.700106.95796.13191.86197.72299.77597.65082.25187.644
USMCA151.688133.983136.655130.555150.059137.502154.852140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204133.947130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.2210.20227825930.1758458090.16849136860.14951729880.15564333230.13269443410.13654321450.11501762940.10632702870.07279516240.08495320330.08685152810.09178688030.08485961190.09423411110.08895210010.08602336610.08467293360.08252673050.07656683140.06641436110.0680865984
Argentina2.9702.5601.7462.8413.5803.7004.4944.6174.7863.2034.6205.3384.8995.0655.0095.2544.2064.9204.8263.9193.3233.485
Brazil15.76016.69416.48415.96018.31616.81218.53522.06024.04818.57626.66926.09426.57328.01825.60621.29518.52019.52321.20720.97719.98821.329
Chile1.4651.7641.7551.7712.0802.0762.3022.3102.5681.7052.3822.7383.0082.7012.6372.7972.6072.7592.7052.8192.1702.450
Colombia1.6951.3171.2961.6522.1402.3812.8232.7602.5582.2332.7993.2183.5063.4883.9544.0323.6603.5503.6543.5762.7533.166
Peru0.8250.8801.1241.0300.9371.0851.3871.5432.1491.5852.4212.4222.6762.7662.9003.4922.9653.6592.9813.0082.5552.989
Venezuela2.1732.2721.5971.4792.2812.4293.2353.6473.4002.6842.2662.6062.9902.8722.0381.8440.6780.5110.1700.1190.0780.096
Rest of C & S America2.9743.1223.2604.1633.8754.1084.5685.6865.8304.3044.7754.9645.4036.7747.1137.3637.1027.1897.3957.2166.5556.988
Central & South America27.86228.60927.26228.89633.20932.59137.34442.62245.33934.29045.93247.38149.05551.68449.25846.07739.73842.11142.93741.63337.42340.504
Algeria1.8791.9811.7952.4512.7092.8233.1032.9093.6974.2773.0633.7874.6445.6416.1735.9905.6885.8135.4285.5825.0245.275
Egypt3.9284.3864.0074.2253.8444.9714.6635.5107.46011.0549.3327.7809.4689.20710.18210.86211.68310.17811.06710.3549.15510.007
Morocco0.8941.0501.2721.2701.3291.5191.4991.4201.8761.7271.6332.7992.6002.7732.5352.7002.8593.0312.9773.0362.6722.859
South Africa4.0474.2194.8744.1094.9454.6775.8685.8076.1264.4565.0015.3325.2665.6895.1175.2944.9704.7394.6634.4703.1683.700
Rest of Africa3.3143.8413.8204.5834.5725.4334.8437.1749.04810.38212.2009.75110.95513.11313.38713.83912.41010.79312.12212.96810.57711.585
Africa14.06215.47715.76816.63817.39919.42319.97622.82028.20731.89631.22929.44932.93336.42337.39338.68537.61034.55436.25736.41130.59633.426
12.652-5.553-5.809
Iran9.5897.5749.53110.08111.67614.01013.78018.30915.04517.54619.69021.12018.97319.79819.88019.72019.10519.95719.55818.49014.79216.567
Saudi Arabia6.1776.4156.6636.9217.1897.4667.8968.4189.61310.00610.72012.00012.54013.30014.10013.50012.20011.8348.6008.6527.2977.468
United Arab Emirates1.8122.2192.2942.6373.0624.9946.4977.71212.0926.2416.6286.8337.0446.8207.1497.1367.8337.9317.8657.5915.5535.809
Rest of the Middle East4.4667.4616.2476.2537.2838.4098.1619.18610.74312.22411.62211.30112.18212.79613.38513.46013.94513.44213.60613.14310.87911.069
Middle East22.04423.66924.73525.89229.20934.87936.33443.62547.49346.01748.66051.25450.73952.71454.51453.81653.08353.16449.62947.87638.52140.913
710.768672.340681.020773.840836.050907.460916.600916.600
China124.278157.979191.329240.479275.819347.472377.664418.426446.861551.443587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020773.840836.050907.460980.057980.0570.16572660670.20733945830.23590271170.27540753170.28608381050.33532312540.33301049780.34155851040.36319503410.4783841380.44669547870.4521297320.45663389870.48002463090.45811740190.44649190760.44819866450.47387661420.48973719170.51365015310.56811571230.5459684839
India27.64728.52330.67733.11935.30039.90045.60051.48251.43857.89264.94069.78872.38373.65276.05080.19883.64388.68096.737102.62281.863100.443
Indonesia4.8585.0294.8594.6895.7187.2356.2457.2458.8237.4208.95010.95212.50012.69212.89811.37512.67313.59215.08215.94314.98616.005
Japan76.10073.20071.70073.43076.80076.73078.99081.18077.95052.79063.57064.10063.95065.24067.69062.95062.17164.38265.41163.20650.80054.900
Malaysia6.2137.3947.0616.1947.1386.8266.7797.6948.4916.6458.3148.2388.92210.04910.07910.00010.2569.4439.7769.2267.8428.312
Philippines3.0413.1203.7353.5923.0413.0763.1613.3973.5553.4343.9995.1086.0086.7057.3258.7609.6779.81910.7269.8478.8629.544
Singapore2.9802.8072.9992.8963.0003.0002.0002.9003.3962.8042.6803.8973.8264.2763.8334.0162.8322.7202.8912.3192.2002.300
South Korea38.30038.05543.71345.37147.20247.12349.83255.20358.57245.41452.39056.39154.06951.76255.52155.80057.07656.31353.71053.22348.87750.758
Taiwan, China21.08017.42020.39019.86022.05219.91019.82018.08016.91011.28017.79018.09617.77718.57119.55817.52718.27717.65317.85317.62317.43617.693
Thailand6.5957.5369.98811.00912.66113.87612.59012.71813.46610.75014.08514.51816.38017.82919.24818.14920.77719.03819.23518.42016.81717.524
Vietnam2.9803.7684.4895.0305.3125.6606.1479.3168.18410.92210.5729.69810.95611.76914.44118.25422.32821.63722.31224.32024.56325.914
Rest of Asia0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0008.6727.2028.1359.32511.89611.72612.43415.45719.65320.91720.70520.34923.64220.51423.285
Asia314.073344.830390.939445.669494.044570.808608.828676.313704.846768.930844.196913.903938.6021,026.4251,012.868979.0221,001.6461,097.8221,170.1311,247.8501,274.8181,306.7370.55085097380.5368422570.55207097070.57287768110.66705699240.64178151470.6443981260.64928693050.66452497360.65283257150.65015537170.65921198590.67227355640.6854336710.7063215990.73898184530.7279546219
Australia5.9005.5006.2006.5007.0006.9006.9007.3377.4265.3416.9666.0246.4585.7576.4496.2915.8495.4415.5005.5005.1005.300
New Zealand0.7200.7400.8200.8500.8900.9400.8900.9300.9000.5600.7350.7000.7370.7690.8430.8080.7560.7880.8150.8100.7500.780
Other Oceania0.0800.0680.1670.1210.1060.0930.1020.1670.2630.2270.2890.6050.5350.3010.2880.3250.3430.3260.2870.2950.2730.284
Oceania6.7006.3087.1877.4717.9967.9337.8928.4348.5896.1297.9907.3297.7306.8277.5807.4246.9486.5556.6026.6056.1236.364
Asia & Oceania320.773351.138398.127453.140502.040578.741616.720684.748713.435775.059852.186921.232946.3321,033.2531,020.448986.4461,008.5951,104.3771,176.7331,254.4551,280.9421,313.101
-5.5002.0003.0003.0004.000
World749.898761.935811.050873.177964.1211,036.2301,134.0901,225.0481,230.3611,152.7201,315.3951,418.2281,445.5891,544.6001,551.4971,505.8281,519.4601,632.9991,707.1401,766.6891,725.1011,795.08011111111111111111
World excl. China625.620603.955619.721632.697688.302688.758756.426806.622783.500601.277727.814777.005785.484803.154840.729833.488838.440859.159871.090859.229745.044815.023
BRIC188.125225.408259.723314.704355.721433.514476.717532.346557.814652.739715.935778.595801.855886.426855.570813.657821.932922.904995.4161,074.7591,121.8931,143.814
MENA28.67430.62131.34933.82837.39044.78646.17054.36961.45964.49463.56264.72167.27170.45173.49872.94772.56771.16267.98265.85354.76258.435
Developed Economies443.880417.401424.419420.761456.314434.229473.367473.768446.570298.082372.312395.246386.925387.073410.868395.956393.186405.287409.109393.442336.750363.4600.59192065820.54781672750.5232952020.48187371740.47329535880.41904662280.4173981420.38673444130.36295848830.25859030420.2830420610.27869014550.26765877480.25059756280.26482040320.26294896270.25876683040.2481858160.23964605320.22270014490.1952057540.202475552
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)306.018344.534386.632452.416507.807602.002660.723751.280783.791854.638943.0831,022.9821,058.6651,157.5271,140.6291,109.8721,126.2741,227.7121,298.0311,373.2471,388.3511,431.6200.40807934180.45218327250.4767047980.51812628260.52670464120.58095337720.5826018580.61326555870.63704151170.74140969580.7169579390.72130985450.73234122520.74940243720.73517959680.73705103730.74123316960.7518141840.76035394680.77729985510.8047942460.797524448
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China181.740186.555195.303211.936231.988254.530283.059332.854336.930303.195355.502381.759398.560416.081429.861437.532445.254453.872461.981465.787408.294451.563
World excl. BRIC561.773536.526551.327558.473608.400602.716657.374692.702672.547499.981599.460639.633643.734658.174695.927692.171697.528710.095711.724691.930603.208651.266
Developing Asia170.814208.688247.548299.624340.209420.153454.525516.438546.174655.055705.969769.662797.124884.303863.720835.204858.974954.5671,027.9511,109.1401,153.3071,178.791
Developing Asia excl. China46.53650.70956.21959.14464.38972.68176.86198.01399.313103.612118.388128.439137.019142.857152.952162.864177.954180.727191.901201.680173.250198.734
ASEAN (5)23.68826.84630.13230.51433.87036.67334.92240.37042.51839.17245.92048.51354.76659.04463.99166.53875.71173.52977.13277.75573.07177.300
Developed Asia143.259136.142143.392146.045153.835150.655154.303159.875158.673113.875138.227144.241141.478142.122149.148143.819142.673143.255142.180138.710121.512127.945
Northern Europe92.56688.82685.04781.17687.63882.95592.67599.12894.09162.74677.31284.74978.96778.84381.23481.70284.29387.01286.43579.98568.53376.350
Southern Europe53.80955.18655.97759.66060.69858.68867.59468.00958.20736.80443.14643.33234.99536.34036.93540.55440.06741.90243.30742.40233.96639.005
Middle East excl. Iran12.45516.09515.20415.81117.53320.86922.55425.31632.44828.47128.97030.13431.76632.91634.63434.09633.97833.20730.07129.38623.72924.346
MENA excl. Iran19.08523.04721.81823.74725.71430.77632.39036.06046.41446.94843.87243.60148.29850.65353.61853.22753.46251.20548.42447.36339.97141.869
GCC8.6389.83910.24111.04712.17714.84616.92118.92925.74419.45420.83421.93723.05124.08925.72225.30924.62824.39220.84120.24315.85016.049
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa4.8946.6587.3949.5648.6198.95810.56410.67911.3349.8948.7099.93910.6578.5259.378000.00399533540.00541173940.00641431010.00727049940.00607763490.00619706860.00683904490.0068830940.00752674760.00651147720.0053333330.00582201130.00603207350.00494199320.0052242699
World excl. China and EU458.653439.542457.113469.256514.302521.594564.864603.574596.946479.997581.191620.053644.770660.775691.752679.142680.327695.435703.523700.880610.737665.986
140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204133.947130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221
European Union (13)20.59320.40221.58422.60525.66425.52231.29335.91234.25621.73026.16528.87126.75327.19630.80932.09033.75334.80937.82535.96231.80833.683
The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)3.9853.9614.1754.4535.1575.5426.5126.6137.2755.5237.6028.3799.1908.9559.49110.3219.2329.9689.3409.4027.4798.606
Mercosur21.12821.76020.06120.46324.40323.23626.58430.53432.43424.70533.91934.49434.92736.41433.11928.86123.90825.45426.85225.53923.87425.418
North Africa8.2768.6838.4369.7059.90411.59711.24312.11815.42320.04616.66415.49818.70920.17021.59722.05722.74621.10521.65521.28418.90220.348
Sub-Saharan Africa10.70112.78411.85014.56513.95114.22416.25315.79616.62814.86413.44914.60215.12711.69313.078
presentation
presentation
200020002000
200120012001
200220022002
200320032003
200420042004
200520052005
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200720072007
200820082008
200920092009
201020102010
201120112011
201220122012
201320132013
201420142014
201520152015
201620162016
201720172017
201820182018
201920192019
202020202020
202120212021
Emerging & Developing Economies
Developed Economies
China
0.4080793418
0.5919206582
0.1657266067
0.4521832725
0.5478167275
0.2073394583
0.476704798
0.523295202
0.2359027117
0.5181262826
0.4818737174
0.2754075317
0.5267046412
0.4732953588
0.2860838105
0.5809533772
0.4190466228
0.3353231254
0.582601858
0.417398142
0.3330104978
0.6132655587
0.3867344413
0.3415585104
0.6370415117
0.3629584883
0.3631950341
0.7414096958
0.2585903042
0.478384138
0.716957939
0.283042061
0.4466954787
0.7213098545
0.2786901455
0.452129732
0.7323412252
0.2676587748
0.4566338987
0.7494024372
0.2505975628
0.4800246309
0.7351795968
0.2648204032
0.4581174019
0.7370510373
0.2629489627
0.4464919076
0.7412331696
0.2587668304
0.4481986645
0.751814184
0.248185816
0.4738766142
0.7603539468
0.2396460532
0.4897371917
0.7772998551
0.2227001449
0.5136501531
0.804794246
0.195205754
0.5681157123
0.797524448
0.202475552
0.5459684839
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The stronger than expected post lockdown recovery of steel using sectors led to upward revisions of steel demand forecast
Still, a substantial decline of steel demand is expected in 2020 in both developed and developing countries. China again is an exception
China’s role as crisis buffer is much reduced this time, compared to the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, global steel demand in 2020 will contract much less than in 2009
Strong government stimuli have provided a buffer to the pandemic shock in developed economies. Emerging economies were more vulnerable to the shock, especially India and Latin America
Beyond 2020, recovery is expected to be slow and uneven withcontinued social distancing, fall out from unemployment and corporatebankruptcies, and lingering uncertainty. Recovery to be led by emergingAsian countries
Further downside risk from second waves in various regions
Structural changes are expected to accompany the recovery process 10
▌Summary of short term impact
-
11
Steel industry beyond the COVID-19 pandemic
-
▌Pr
e-CO
VID
Meg
atre
nds
Technology• Digitisation
• Automation
International • Backlash against
globalisation
• Shifting global power, great decoupling
• Weakening of global institutes
• Rising protectionism
12
Social/Political• Political polarisation,
nationalism
• Rising inequality
• Aging population
• Urbanisation
• Rising climate change pressure
-
▌Pre-COVID trends in the steel industry
CO2 mitigation efforts
Slow demand growth
Auto industry transformation
New concept of urban mobility
Smart manufacturing
Shift in regional growth driver
Smart cities
Energy transformation
13
-
▌ Impact of the pandemic on megatrends Could accelerate or reverse ongoing megatrends
Additional impact on productivity and regional growth pattern
Social ImpactResilience building
Political Impact
Increased tele-activitiesBusiness: focus on supply
chain resilience, automation
Adjusted globalisation and new pattern of
international relationship
Shift in value/preference, environmental awareness
Consumer: higher savings
State as protector and last resort
14
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Shift in the demand structure of steel using sectors• Automotive: EV transition, new urban mobility patterns• Construction: new pattern of urbanisation, changes in urban
planning and building designs, energy sector investment Slower demand growth, change in steel intensity of GDP Regional shift: acceleration of the “Asian Shift”? Increased trade protectionism Re- or Near-shoring of steel using sectors: shift in indirect trad
pattern Rising environmental pressure
▌ Possible impact on the steel industry
15
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The COVID-19 pandemic might bring a far-reaching transformation of the world
Exact shape of transformation is yet to be identified, but likely to shift demand patterns and operational environment
New megatrends may offer additional challenges to the steel industry
Still, steel will be part of the solution and will also see new opportunities
▌Concluding remarks
16
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▌Presenter
Nae Hee Han
Director, Economic Studies
han@worldsteel.org
17
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worldsteel.org | constructsteel.org | steeluniversity.org | worldautosteel.org | issf.org
18
Slide Number 1DisclaimerSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Global overview�Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)Regional overviewSlide Number 7Slide Number 8Evolution of regional shares in steel demand�Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Pre-COVID MegatrendsPre-COVID trends in the steel industryImpact of the pandemic on megatrendsPossible impact on the steel industryConcluding remarksPresenterSlide Number 18
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