the incumbency advantage what is an incumbent? stephanow, 2006

The Incumbency Advantage

What is an incumbent?

Stephanow, 2006

94%

of House incumbents won re-election in 2006!

(It was 98% in 2004.)

79%

of Senate incumbents won re-election in 2006!

An incumbent doesn’t lose,

they get fired!

Why do so many get easily re-elected?

incumbent Advantages

Challenge the incumbent? Good luck!

Relatively few seats are seriously contested.

Some are not contested at all!

Money $$$!

People are more likely to donate to people they “know”.– Especially from PACs.

Type of Candidate Total Raised Numberof Cands

Avg Raised

Incumbent $325,769,228

37 $8,804,574

Challenger $120,160,926 104 $1,155,394

Open Seat $63,626,782 28 $2,855,486

Grand Total $509,556,936 169 $3,015,130

SENATE, 2008

http://www.opensecrets.org/overview/incumbs.php

Type of Candidate Total Raised Numberof Cands

Avg Raised

Incumbent

Challenger 650

Open Seat 289

Grand Total

HOUSE, 2008

$589,947,049

$218,575,834

$169,325,461

$977,848,344

435 $1,356,200

1,373

$336,271

$585,901

$711,680

http://www.opensecrets.org/overview/incumbs.php

Franking Privilege

Free postage– Can do mass mailing up to 3 months

before the election, letting their constituents know all the “wonderful” things they’ve done and how they’ve “brought home the bacon.”

Staffers

Incumbents already have staff in place.– Illegal to work on re-election campaign

during regular office hours, but many volunteer their free time.

– Because no re-election for boss means no job!

Patronage

Incumbents are able to appoint people to lower level offices/give people jobs.

Friends of friends, etc.= votes.

Name Recognition

People tend to vote for people they have heard of.– The Distinguished Gentleman

Eddie Murphy’s character, Thomas Jefferson Johnson, got into Congress by using the name “Jeff” Johnson because that was the name of the Congressman before (who had died and left the seat open.)

He never showed his face, just ran on the name. His slogan was, “Jeff Johnson—The Name You Know.”

Media Access

Can get free media time by appearing on talk shows, radio talk shows and news coverage.

Casework

Again, delivering the goods.Staff help constituents with all kinds

of problems and concerns.

Gerrymandering

How district lines are drawn in a state can draw an advantage for one particular party.

– Tom DeLay’s encouragement for TX state legislature to redrawn the Texas district lines had a big impact on Texas in 2004.

– We’ll learn more about this in a few days!

So, with all those incumbent advantages, should Congressmen

be term limited?

What do you think?

Many states tried…

…but the Supreme Court ruled…

May 22, 1995 TERM LIMITS ARE UNCONSTUTIONAL. 5-4, States can’t place limits on the length of time

members of Congress can serve. Strikes down an Arkansas term-limit law & similar

measures that were passed by 21 other states. It would have to be done by a constitutional amendment. An amendment failed in the House earlier in 1995, but

Sen. Fred Thompson pledged to bring a Senate version to the floor “at the earliest date possible.”