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The next 40 YearsThe ART of the Possible
Dr Gill LockwoodIVI-Midland Fertility Tamworth
International Summit on Assisted Reproduction and GeneticsSARG, Tel Aviv, Israel
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Oscar Wilde:1889
“Life imitates Art more than ART imitates life”
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• Eloi
• Morlocks
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Guardian April 2015
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New Scientist: August 2016
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Fertility Rates per Woman
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Fertility Rates over time (UK)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Children per woman
1800 2015
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Daily Mail: March 2014
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When Harry met Meghan
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The perils of ‘perpetual postponing’
• The risk of permanent childlessness and female age at time of starting to try to conceive is….
• 6% at age 30• 14% at age 35• 35% at age 40• Just postponing a first conception attempt from 25 to 30 years reduces mean number of children
from 2 to 1.7, increases infertility prevalence from 9.8 to 15.8% and increases ‘incomplete’ families from 14.8 to 24%
(Leridon INED France)
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Unreasonable expectations…
• 59% of childless women aged 35-39 still planned to have a baby
• 30% aged 40-45 did too!(Sobotka, Austrian survey data)
• 58% said they wanted 2 children (aged 21-23)
• Only 36% had achieved that by age 36-38(Smallwood and Jeffries, UK Population
Trends)
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Marie Claire Magazine: April 2017
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Valedictory Portraits
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The Medieval Approach to Motherhood
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Victorian Family
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Eton College Boarding School
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The Kibbutz Movement
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Anthony Burgess Foundation
“The ability to continue a family line without intervention from ruling bodies is a key freedom in a democratic civilisation”
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Thank You
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Female childlessness (%) at age 45 years NCDS cohort and (optimistic!) projections for the BCS70 cohort by educational level
Educational level NCDS Cohort BCS70 Cohort
Tertiary 23.6 (21.4-25.9) 28.3 (26.4-30.3)
Intermediate 14.0 (12.8-15.2) 17.3 (15.9-18.8)
No Qualifications 10.6 (8.5-12.8) 17.0 (12.6-22.0)
Source: Kneale and Joshi (2008)
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The Modern Family?
Page.3326th May 2018
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