the next industrial revolution
Post on 05-Jul-2015
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Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
www.ca-global.org
The next industrial revolution?
A prequel !
Not so long ago....unbelievable constraints !
Not so long ago....unbelievable constraints !
An amazing confluence....all the technologies available in the same timeframe!
The digital divide has gone...hardware and access costs are no longer an issue....and nor is software!
Everybody is now on line...
>5Bn people have mobiles & >50% are internet ready!
>5Bn people have mobiles & >50% are internet ready!
Soon it will be everything!
…and now entering the workforce… -Any platform- Any device - Any OS - Any Application
- An entirely different expectation!
~20 years of living on line…
For young people, joining a company is like being catapulted back in time...
NetworkedCool Apps
Unlimited storageProcessing Power
BandwidthFixed & mobileOpen, sharing
Influential
For young people, joining a company is like being catapulted back in time...
NetworkedCool Apps
Unlimited storageProcessing Power
BandwidthFixed & mobileOpen, sharing
Influential
Why isn’t working at the office the same
as working at home?
IT Dept’s canno longer cope...or compete !
Creativity is nowat the edge, outof control, open, & distributed...
The most important hot spot....
People&
Society
Commerce&
Governance
Science&
Technology
The most important hot spot....
People&
Society
Commerce&
Governance
Science&
Technology
The most important hot spot....
People&
Society
Commerce&
Governance
Science&
TechnologyThis where the action always is – and ‘we’ are the primary impediment of change
How the previous industrial revolution is still perceived....
How the previous industrial revolution is still perceived....
The reality today....
Machines produce everything....and without them we would all die...
The reality today....
Machines produce everything....and without them we would all die...
We have to stand on the shoulders of what went before....but it was a ‘food to waste’ cycle
This is unsustainable in the long, and perhaps even the short, term - and growth always has limits !
Mother Nature on the other hand....has created sustainable ‘food to waste to food’ cycles
This eco-system model is now one we have to aspire to…to live symbiotically with our planet !
How ?
A new all encompassing approach....
BioNano
IT +AI
A new all encompassing approach....
BioNano
IT +AI
A new all encompassing approach....
BioNano
IT +AIThis will give rise to new
materials, medicines, capabilities and greater understanding
The convergence of ‘dry’ & ‘wet’ science’ - genome, protein, nano, intelligence, robotics, AI + AL with old, and new forms of genetics
A new ability to replicate 3D objects at adistance...
A new ability to replicate 3D objects at adistance...
Distributed design and production in the office and home...
With recycling that works and a new ‘open hardware’ movement/culture...leading to new models of innovation!
A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
A new ability to understand complex systems through sheer computational power and AI...will transform Pharma & R&D +++
The biggest challenge we face?Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled with our ignorance of everything complex and non-linear...
The biggest challenge we face?Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled with our ignorance of everything complex and non-linear...
We need help from the very technology we are creating...in order to make the right choices & decisions
Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed?
Less
Mor
e
Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed?
Openness
Less
Mor
e
Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed?
Openness
Sharing
Less
Mor
e
Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed?
Openness
Sharing
Communicative
Less
Mor
e
Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed?
Openness
Sharing
Communicative
Tech Capable
Less
Mor
e
Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed?
Openness
Sharing
Communicative
Tech Capable
Transitory
Less
Mor
e
Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed?
Openness
Sharing
Communicative
Tech Capable
Transitory
Independence
Less
Mor
e
Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed?
Openness
Sharing
Communicative
Tech Capable
Transitory
Independence
Global
Less
Mor
e
Openness
Sharing
Communicative
Tech Capable
Transitory
Independence
Global
Less
Mor
e
Where are New Companies headed?Le
ss
Mor
e
Where are New Companies headed?
Controlism
Less
Mor
e
Where are New Companies headed?
Controlism
Concentration
Less
Mor
e
Where are New Companies headed?
Controlism
Concentration
Hierarchy
Less
Mor
e
Where are New Companies headed?
Controlism
Concentration
Hierarchy
Myopia
Less
Mor
e
Where are New Companies headed?
Controlism
Concentration
Hierarchy
Myopia
Adaptability & Flexibility
Less
Mor
e
Where are New Companies headed?
Controlism
Concentration
Hierarchy
Myopia
Adaptability & Flexibility
People Focus
Less
Mor
e
Where are New Companies headed?
Controlism
Concentration
Hierarchy
Myopia
Adaptability & Flexibility
People Focus
Outsourcing
Less
Mor
e
IT continues to be exponential !
Visible lightToday’s
transistors
Human hair
Bacteria
Viruses
0.1 nm
1.0 nm
10 nm
0.10 mm
1 mm
10 mm
100 mm0.1 mm
Diameter of a DNA helix Silicon lattice
constant Diameter of a carbon atom
X-rays
1 angstrom
Shockley, Bardeen,and Brattain - 1947
The first IC-1959
ICs-1980
End of the road?~2020 - 2025
Intel 2006Intel 2010
Is there an end in sight??
Atomic manipulation has been a reality for some time…& just gets better – currently approaching the electron
Why is IT really critical?
Well, on a grand scale, we don’t understand much!
Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….
Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….
…but we are linear and limited thinkers devoidof tools & techniques tohelp us comprehend…
Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….
…but we are linear and limited thinkers devoidof tools & techniques tohelp us comprehend…
If we have a long-term future it lies with technology & machines and their ability to extend our knowledge and understanding
Time
SocietyTechnologyWealthHealthWell Being
AdvanceFutures
Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies
Time
SocietyTechnologyWealthHealthWell Being
AdvanceFutures
Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies
Our green effort works& status quo just holds
Time
SocietyTechnologyWealthHealthWell Being
AdvanceFutures
Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies
Our green effort works& status quo just holds
Cold FusionClimatic ControlEarth ManagementNano - Bio Tech AI + AL +++
Time
SocietyTechnologyWealthHealthWell Being
AdvanceFutures
Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies
Our green effort works& status quo just holds
Cold FusionClimatic ControlEarth ManagementNano - Bio Tech AI + AL +++
Time
SocietyTechnologyWealthHealthWell Being
AdvanceFutures
Our climate and planet models areso crude that we have no real clueabout which trajectory we are on
…..and if we can influence it anyway!
We now live in a world of the infinite…
… how do you find, how do you choose?
Predicting the Present
Economic Index
Lag Variables Other Exogenous VariableGoogle Trends
35
Automobiles
36 9
Auto Sales by Make (Top 9 Make by Sales) Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month
When you get tectonic forces…
When you get tectonic forces…
Shift happens!
The changing shape of societies…
HunterGatherer
EarlyCivilizations
IndustrialRevolution
Inherentlylinear & wellbehaved…
Optimizing individualparts canoptimize
the whole
Intuitionmostly works
The changing shape of societies…
HunterGatherer
EarlyCivilizations
IndustrialRevolution
Inherentlylinear & wellbehaved…
Optimizing individualparts canoptimize
the whole
Intuitionmostly worksConnectivity ∝ N and does not scale
The changing shape of societies…
InformationSociety
The changing shape of societies…
InformationSociety
Connectivity
Phone ∝N2
Internet∝Nn
The changing shape of societies…
This all getsvery muchworse aseverythingbecomes
mobile andintelligent
and sensory
SemanticSociety
The changing shape of societies…
This all getsvery muchworse aseverythingbecomes
mobile andintelligent
and sensory
SemanticSociety
The changing shape of societies…
This all getsvery muchworse aseverythingbecomes
mobile andintelligent
and sensory
SemanticSociety
The changing shape of societies…
This all getsvery muchworse aseverythingbecomes
mobile andintelligent
and sensory
SemanticSociety
The changing shape of societies…
This all getsvery muchworse aseverythingbecomes
mobile andintelligent
and sensory
SemanticSociety
The changing shape of societies…
SemanticSociety
Inherentlynon-linear &
not wellbehaved…
Optimizing individual
parts neveroptimizes the whole
Intuitionmostly
fails
Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...
Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...
Autonomous: Sensors Computing power
Artificial Intelligence Human Augmentation Decision Making System Control People Support Society Support Commercial Support
The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things
The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things
We reward those who afford us more freedom – not less!
A general observa3on !
Spot the problem...
~9 months Tech Cycle
~2.5 years Management Cycle
~5 years People Cycle
2 - 10 years Procurement Cycle
Expect to see books, paper, telephones, email, txt ++ to d i e w i t h i n t h e n e x t decade ...and social nets & apps take over...
We live in a society obsessed with risk!
What about the upside/downside ratio?
Risk analysis
Modern organizations now look like this…
Risk analysis
Opportunity analysis
Modern organizations now look like this…
COCHRANEa s s o c i a t e s
Thank You
ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk
COCHRANEa s s o c i a t e s
Thank You
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