the political economy of climate change

The Political Economy of Climate Change

Professor Jeremy B Williamswww.jeremybwilliams.net

4 October 2009

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Overview

1) Why some believe there is no need to worry about climate change

2) Why we should worry about climate change3) What needs to be done4) Reasons to be cheerful5) Summary and conclusions

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1) WHY SOME BELIEVE THERE IS NO NEED TO WORRY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

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© Jeremy B. Williams 2007

1.Doubts about the science

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Image source: healthandenergy.com/global_warming_cartoons.htm

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2.We will inventour way outof trouble

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© Jeremy B. Williams 2007

3.Think abouttoday not the

future

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A concern for the future

“I conceive that land belongs to a vast family of which many are dead, few are living, and countless members are unborn”.

Kwame Nkrumah (1909-72) Ghanaian leader

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1.Doubts about the science

3.Think abouttoday not the

future

2.We will inventour way outof trouble

Bordering on the absurd

Ignores precautionary principle

Unethical

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2) WHY WE SHOULD WORRY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

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The Stern Review, October 2006

On climate change:“The greatest market failure the world has ever seen”

Sir Nicholas Stern

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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

February, 2007: Evidence of Human-caused Global Warming is ... “Unequivocal”

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“Climate change will not be a major issue in my life time.”

A. Strongly disagree

B. DisagreeC. Note sure D. AgreeE. Strongly agree1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

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2005: CO2 = 379ppm

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Source: http://www.21school.ox.ac.uk/news/archive/200702_inaugural_lecture.cfm

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Source: http://www.21school.ox.ac.uk/news/archive/200702_inaugural_lecture.cfm

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Upsala Glacier, Argentina

1928

2004

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Blomstrandbreen Glacier, Norway

1922

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Blomstrandbreen Glacier, Norway

2002

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The Imja Glacier, Himalayas

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The Imja Glacier, Himalayas

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Why this is a big deal …Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster

than in any other part of the worldAt the present rate of retreat, they may be

gone by 2035More than 2 billion people - a third of the

world's population - rely on the Himalayas for their water

Ref: www.greenpeace.org

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© Jeremy B. Williams 2007

Guandong, China, July 2006

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© Jeremy B. Williams 2007

Anhui Province, China, August 2006

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Forced migrations

2005: UN study reveals that there could be as many as 50 million environmental refugees around the world by the end of the decade.

Same study estimates that as many as 100 million people live in areas that are below sea level or liable to storm surge

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1 metre sea level rise will inundate more than 15 percent of Bangladesh, displacing more than 13 million people

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Annual carbon dioxide emissions

Bangladesh: 172kg per capitaUnited States: 21 tonnes per capita

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The ecological footprint concept

How many planets would we need if everyone lived like you?

http://www.myfootprint.org

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Calculating the ecological footprint

Image source: http://www.ew.govt.nz

Official statistics on consumption are used to calculate the amount of biologically productive land and water area required to produce the resources consumed and to absorb the wastes generated using prevailing technology

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Image source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/

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Worldwide, there exists about 1.9 biologically productive global hectares per person

Image source: www.adbusters.org

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At what stage do you think humankind will outstrip its supply of biologically productive hectares?

A. 2010B. 2020C. 2050D. 2100E. No answer

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Image source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/

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Image source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/

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Image source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/

China

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3) WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE

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“The Virgin Earth Challenge”… USD25 million prize if you can develop “a commercially viable design which results in the removal of anthropogenic, atmospheric greenhouse gases so as to contribute materially to the stability of Earth’s climate”.

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This design does not qualify apparently …

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Marine cloud whitening?

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The world’s largest per capita carbon emitter …

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… needs an emissions trading scheme

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Cap and trade

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Creating the next industrial revolution?

Radical resource productivity

Biomimicry

Service and flow economy

Investing in natural capital

See, also by Paul Hawken, (1994) The Ecology of Commerce

www.naturalcapitalism.org

Paul Hawken, Amory and L. Hunter Lovins propose 4 central strategies of natural capitalism:

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Radical resource productivity

Using resources more efficiently in ways that can already be achieved; e.g. process redesign (disembodied technical change) or energy efficient buildings, passive solar heating.

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Research biomimicry

Spider silk Abalone shell

Stenocara beetle

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Reorient to a service and flow economy

Focuses more on selling and purchasing services rather than products

Makes manufacturers more ecologically responsible

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Invest in natural capital

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4) REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

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The process of creative destruction

Describes the process of industrial transformation that accompanies radical innovation

Innovation sustains long-term economic prosperity, even as it destroys the value of established companies

Professor Joseph Schumpeter

1883-1950

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5) SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS

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"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing, and baffling expedience of delays is coming to a close. In its place, we are coming to a period of consequences".

Winston Churchill(cited in An Inconvenient Truth)

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The role of government

Unfortunately, governments are often motivated by the political cycle

For this reason, command-and-control solutions are not expedient

At the very least, governments need to provide the legislative framework to change behaviour; e.g. ecological tax reform

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The role of business

Business is more dynamic than governmentThere is a competitive advantage to be

gained from developing a business strategy based on sustainable development

Supply-side: reduce costsDemand-side: attract environmentally-

conscious customers

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The role of the individualTime to have a rethink

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Questions and comments please

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