the us national greenhouse gas inventory of forests: where we’ve been and where we’re going
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The US National Greenhouse Gas Inventory of Forests: Where We’ve Been and Where We’re GoingChristopher W. Woodall with Domke, Smith, Coulston, Healey, Gray
U.S. Forest ServiceForest Inventory and Analysis St. Paul, MN
Outline
ContextRecent
Science/ImprovementsNear Term DeliverablesLong Term Plans
Courtesy of Perry et al. In Prep Atlas of US Forests
Forest Carbon Cycle in Context of US Emissions
86% ≈15%Why inventory?
Annual sequ...0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Other
Settlements
Grassland
Cropland
Forest land
That 15% Might Get Larger
Past, Current, and Future C
Inform Policy At Various Scales
Vs.Biogenic emissions
Post-2020 Emission Targets
National Forest NEPA
Recent Enhancements of FIA’s Carbon Inventory
CRM adoptionStanding dead C estimation overhaul Incorporation of P3 downed dead wood CP2+ Inventories (i.e., greater sample
intensity)National utilization (i.e., life cycle analysis)Dead wood residence time researchC density imputation (i.e., Wilson’s maps)
Differences in dead tree carbon
MethodCRM:CRM+DRF:CRM+DRF+SLA:
91.2 kg C89.2 kg C87.9 kg C
74.8 kg C61.2 kg C49.1 kg C
Decay class 5
Decay class 1
Decay class 2
Decay class 3
Decay class 4
29.4 kg C19.6 kg C12.1 kg C
2.4 kg C1.7 kg C1.0 kg C
0.4 kg C0.3 kg C0.2 kg C
Harmon et al. 2011 NRS-RP-15Domke et al. 2011 CBMWoodall et al. 2012 Forestry
Downed Dead Wood
Woodall et al. 2013 FEM
Domke et al. 2013 PLoS One
Imputing Carbon Density to Landscape
Presented in 2014 NGHGI
3rd Most Downloaded Research Dataset in FS:RDS-2013-0004
Most Accessed Article on Journal Website
Wilson et al. 2013. CBM
Modeling of Dead Wood Residency
Woodall et al. 2012 FEM; Russell et al. 2013. Ecol. Model.; Russell et al. 2014. Ecosystems
Climate and Dead Wood?
Russell et al. In review
Near Term Deliverables
Carbon estimates from P2+/P3 Vegetation plots
New delineation of “managed” forest land in AK
Refined woodland vs forestland delineation
Forest floor C estimates from P3 data
Sources of stock estimation uncertainty
Understory vegetation Includes seedlings,
shrubs, grasses, and forbs
Formerly: Function of forest type and overstory size (based on Birdsey 1996), See EPA Annex 3.12
Cover and height by growth form “scales” estimates of maximum carbon
Russell et al. In Revision Forestry
Adding AK Forest to NGHGI
Per IPCC guidance…only forest potentially impacted by humans included in inventory
AK forests along transport corridors or in mining/gas areas
Ogle et al. In Prep
Woodlands vs Forest land
Beyond inventorying forests: woodlands and urban areas
Delineation based on maximum attainable height in situ (5m threshold)
≈50 million acres
Coulston et al. In Prep
Forest Floor CarbonPrimary Goal: Update
Smith and Heath (2002) models used in FIADB and NGHGI using extensive P3 observations
Progress: Initial modeling complete…integrate updated models in 2015 NGHGI
Sources of Uncertainty Objectives
Evaluate alternative estimation methods in DDW C
Quantify total uncertainty
Sources of Uncertainty Measurement Sampling Model selection Model parameter
Initial Results Differences among methods
may range up to 150%
• Oregon (2001-2010)• P2 plots = 4,859
Future Vision: Synergy
• Attribution• Land Use
Change• Disaggregation• Planned
Improvements• AK/HI
• Reduce uncertainty
• Alaska• Land Use
Change• Forecasting
Farm Bill: “Report information on renewable biomass supplies and carbon stocks at the local, State, regional, and national level, including by ownership type”
Increased Precision, Refined Data Distribution, and Application of RS/Biometrical Science
P2+ of Non-Live Tree Pools Increased P2 Sample Intensity/Reduced Cycle LengthContinued Incorporation of Biomass/C Attributes into Online
ToolsConsistent/Timely TPO/Utilization Information Improved biometrics: forest floor, soils, understory
vegetation, belowgroundNational Volume Biomass StudyLeverage Remote Sensing Technologies (e.g., ICE, LCMS)
Improving Change Detection and 1990-Present Baselines
NASA Grant: Carbon Monitoring Systems
National biomass mapping based on LiDAR and FIA network
Landsat change detection informs attribution of C to disturbance
Most Everything Feeds into Biomass/Carbon
ICE
LCMS
National Vol/Biomass Study
TPO/Utilization
Interior AK
Woodlands
P2+/P3
Questions?
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