thesis defense presentation

11 November 2009Chris Hippner

Quantitative metrics Spending Employment

Hypothesis: $100 billion United States Dollars 500,000 persons

NOT YET POSSIBLE

ethod does not exist for international comparisons

ssumes: Function, roles, & missions

are different

WRONG FEATURES

1. Common features: Collection/analysis Covert action Counterintelligence

n National wealth v. security concerns?

Cold War Paradigm

Civil-Military Relations

Non-Western

Inconsistent/qualitative variables

Annual reports/disclosers

Domestic requirements

Pro: Quantitative

Con: Irregular reporting

All intel. Components?

Brassey’s Intelligence Yearbook Case study format Different attributes

Intelligence Resource Program Collected data

Design Descriptive research

1. Intelligence spending

2. Intelligence personnel

3. Gross Domestic Product

Population 195 nation-states

Standardizing1. Spending units

▪ US Dollar▪ 2008 = baseline year

2. Personnel definitions▪ Full time equivalents▪ No contractors

DATA RETRIEVAL

Internet Sources

Traditional Sources

Considerations Documents in foreign

languages Webpage credibility

ESTIMATION PROCESS

Spending1. Create ratio

2. Average ratios

3. Apply Personnel

1. Establish similarity

2. Set ranges

3. Create average

4. Apply

Finding Total world intel.

spending = $106,961,604,308.01 US spends most = 65% US proportion of world GDP =

23.5% US spending is disproportion

Finding 20 countries spend 93%

of total

Their GDP = 69% world GDP

175 countries spend

remaining $7.8 billion

Their GDP = 31% world GDP

Top 10% average point-to-

point variation

Top 10% vs. Bottom 90%

Exponential Trend R2 Value = 0.940

Power Trend R2 Value = 0.835

Results (cont’d)

Affect of US on Estimating

Population(US Included)

Population(US Excluded)

Average Spending $548,521,047.73 $164,750,537.67

Standard Deviation $5,389,872,754.45 $576,959,565.88

Ratios for Estimating 2/947 1/442

Percent Difference of Estimates 5.22%

Finding Total world intelligence

employment =

1,130,104 Russia spends =

$18,902.70 per person US spends = $520,833 per

person

Total: 1,130,104

World814,10472%

= Top Intelligence Employers

Top 20 employers = 61% of total

Bottom 175 employer = 39% of total

Interesting… Top intel. spenders ≠ top

intel. employers Only 6 countries are both

= Top Intelligence Spender and Employer

Found 246 different intel. agencies

Average intel. agency per country = 1.28

Financial intel. units generally excluded

CRITIQUE

Search methods Alternative estimations

methods Intel. spending &

Employment Assumed linear Relationship

FUTURE RESEARCH

Continuous Regular reporting

Intel. spending & employment relationship

Employment components Analysts, Linguists, support

staff

Contact:Chris Hippner