transport – mitigation and adaptation tamás fleischer institute for world economics of the...

TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

Tamás FleischerInstitute for World Economics of the Hungarian

Academy of Scienceshttp://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/

tfleisch@vki.hu

Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach Event

Central European University, Budapest, April 10-11, 2008

Mitigation: decreasing the emissions (decreasing the driving forces of the climate change). It suppose known reasons, known relations, known target

Adaptation: posterior adaptation: reaction to changes already

happened

preventive adaptation: to improve capability of resistance / of survival of future changes

flexibility, buffers, reserves, redundancies, diversity,

Characteristics that are not „efficient” or „uniform” or „optimal” etc.

(„Post-modern” versus „modern” values)

Transport – mitigation and adaptation

Source: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC TAR Vol II. indirect source: Smit et al 1999.

Mitigation and adaptation as policy answers

Mitigation and adaptation

Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach

The myth of the negative feedback loop

Expectation: the more technology, the less emission / CC

Experience: the more technology – increasing emission

Behaves rather like a positive feedback loop

(transport) sector emissions

technology

Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach

„Fuel economy regulations have been effective in slowing the growth of GHG emissions, but so far growth of transport activity has overwhelmed their impact.” (AR4)

What happened?

Misleading message to the user: „technology can solve the problem, you don’t have to change anything”

Transport: target: to gain time => higher speed => no time gain, but bigger distance covered => (+higher emission)

The cumulated social result differs from the direct one

IPCC mitigation approach

The non-technical solutions

From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation”

(transport) sector emissions

regulations, prices,emissions trade etc.

IPCC mitigation approach

The non-technical solutions

From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment)

(transport) sector emissions

regulations, prices,emissions trade etc.

(transport) sector

IPCC mitigation approach

The non-technical solutions

From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment)

How to make the feedback even more back to policy level?

(transport) sector emissions

regulations, prices,emissions trade etc.

(transport) sector

IPCC four basic storylines or scenario families

2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

IPCC scenarios

A B

1

2

2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

IPCC scenarios

A B

1

2 Local, fragmented, regional world

Global, converged, connected world

2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

IPCC scenarios

A B

1

2

Economic priority, efficiency, market based world, competition

Environment, equity, participative decisions, co-operation

Local, fragmented, regional world

Global, converged, connected world

2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

IPCC scenarios

A B

1

2

market co-operation

regional

global

2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

IPCC scenarios

A B

1

2

market co-operation

regional

global A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development

2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

IPCC scenarios

A B

1

2

market co-operation

regional

global A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development

B1 ‘global co-operation’social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU]

2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

IPCC scenarios

A B

1

2

market co-operation

regional

global A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development

B1 ‘global co-operation’social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU]

A2 ‘regional market’protectionist, anti-globalsystem of efficient localmarkets, based on limited range TNCs rather than statesgood local connections

2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

IPCC scenarios

A B

1

2

market co-operation

regional

global A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development

B1 ‘global co-operation’social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU]

A2 ‘regional market’protectionist, anti-globalsystem of efficient localmarkets, based on limited range TNCs rather than statesgood local connections

B2 ‘regional co-operation’intra-regional redistribution, equity and environment-friendly development directed by regional institutions, Harmony with SD principles: regional production, -trade, -employment; regional institutions and -governance.

2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy

Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted

A B

1

2

market co-operation

regional

global A1 ‘global market’sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups

2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy

Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted

A B

1

2

market co-operation

regional

global A1 ‘global market’sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups

B2 ‘regional co-operation’integrated urban, spatial and transport policy, integrated modal policy, innovative local shuttle services, priority to PT, congestion price, local calming, in rural areas integrated goods and passenger transport

2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy

Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted

A B

1

2

market co-operation

regional

global A1 ‘global market’sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups

B1 ‘global co-operation’top-down elaborated legal and institutional changes,support sustainable scenarios at national and international level, eliminate regional inequalities

A2 ‘regional market’B2 ‘regional co-operation’integrated urban, spatial and transport policy, integrated modal policy, innovative local shuttle services, priority to PT, congestion price, local calming, in rural areas integrated goods and passenger transport

While technology is very important to promote mitigation, without a proper wider context it may lead to more emissions instead of less.

The adaptation scenario is not just necessary, but also represent a different and multidimensional approach of risk management

From the IPCC scenarios ‘B2’ and „B1” dispose of values fitting pro-sustainability, and can present a multi-dimensional world

B1 ‘global co-operation’ scenario shows a kind of „world-wide union” approach for a global, bureaucratic, centrally governed co-operation – somewhat contradicting to certain values of sustainability

B2 ‘regional co-operation’ scenario is a regionally organised world with strong internal connections within the single unites and secondary connections between those unites. This form of governance seems to fit best to sustainability principles, while more moderated in globalisation

Transport – mitigation and adaptation

TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

Tamás FleischerInstitute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Scienceshttp://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ tfleisch@vki.hu

Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach Event

Central European University, Budapest, April 10-11, 2008

THANKS FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION !