uk giaf: winter 2015

UPCOMING TALKS

Slot machines: Tweaking randomness in Social Casino Juan Gabriel Gomila Salas, CEO at Frogames

Analytical techniques: A practical guide to answering business questionsFred Easey, Head of Analytics at Space Ape Games The secrets to successful F2P ad monetization: An analytics perspectiveMark Robinson, CEO at deltaDNA

Analytical techniques: A practical guide to answering business questions

26th Nov 2015

Topics

1. Intro

2. The Four Pillars of Analytics

3. A/B testing

4. Reporting and Visualization

5. Data Analysis

6. Communication

7. Q&A

Who are we?

Space Ape Games is an award-winning UK independent game studioGame of the Year - TIGA 2015

Best Indie Studio - Develop 2015Combined KPIs: 20mm downloads, $44mm gross revenue

Apple Editor’s Choice, 4.7 average app store rating

Disclaimer!

The four pillars of analytics

1. Data Munging 2. Reporting andVisualization

3. Analysis and Insights

4. AppliedAnalytics

Ad-hoc analysis

Deep Dives

A/B Testing

Dashboards

Slice & Dice Tools

Data Viz

Event Generation

Aggregation

Multiple Data Sources

Predictive Modelling

User Segmentation

Targeted Content

The four pillars of analytics

1. Data Munging 2. Reporting andVisualization

3. Analysis and Insights

4. AppliedAnalytics

Ad-hoc analysis

Deep Dives

Hypothesis Testing

Dashboards

Data Viz

Event Generation

Aggregation

Multiple Data Sources

Predictive Modelling

User Segmentation

Targeted Content

A/B Testing

● Primacy Effect○ When changes are made to a website, app etc, users will sometimes react to the

“novelty” of seeing something different, but only for a short period. This can confound a/b tests, biasing results against control

● Examine test vs control time-series - is the uplift uniform or front-loaded?● Sometimes opposite effect - eg changes to pricing changes can take time to sink in● Interesting side-note: continuous change may be optimal, rather than “one-and-done” a/b test

A/B Testing - Primacy effect

● Bootstrapping○ T-Test relies on data being normally distributed○ For mobile F2P games data is often heavily skewed and high variance, especially

revenue○ Bootstrapping is an alternative to a t-test○ Re-sampling with replacement to generate a distribution of sample means○ Compare test group distribution to control to determine if test mean is different from

control - CLT means the distributions are normally distributed

A/B Testing - Bootstrapping

● Decide on target metrics before starting the test (helps avoid type 1 errors by measuring too many metrics or confirmation bias)

● When running optimization tests, only change 1 variable at a time (otherwise you won’t know which variable caused the uplift!)

● Calculate how long the test will need to run for to detect a difference between test and control (avoid ending test too early or running test for too long)

○ It is bad practice to wait until you get a significant result - can result in type 1 errors● If possible, run a dummy control along with the actual control (eg have a “test group” that is the

same as control). This is insurance in case the assigning of users to a group affects the result somehow

A/B Testing - best practices

Reporting & Visualisation

Tableau is awesome!

● As a lifelong Excel user - Tableau is superior for dashboards and slice/dice tools○ Very flexible and fast - can quickly drill / filter / slice in real-time

during meetings. No need for “let me go back to my desk and check that”

● “total” function is equivalent of windowing functions in SQL. Allows same functionality in report (example: taps report - divide by DAU rather than just users that used that tap)

● Works best when pointed at user / date level tables, rather than rolled-up tables, as you can then calculate “per user” metrics on the fly

Beware being caught out by Y-axis scaling

Yellow sales declining much faster than other types

Beware being caught out by Y-axis scaling

In fact share of sales is unchanged

Can also index values against starting amount or calculate period-on -period change

Truncated Y-Axes are misleading - do not use them!* (some BI tools add them by default)

Beware being caught out by Y-axis scaling

* Unless you want to over-emphasise the differences in something

● Make sure your graph is clearly understandable○ Add Axis labels, legend and title where needed○ are font sizes big enough (will this be shown as a presentation or emailed to

someone?)

● Too many series on a graph can be confusing - filter out or roll-up long tail stuff - country split for example

● R + ggplot2 is good if you need to make a lot of similar graphs

Data Viz best practices

Data Analysis

Eat your own dogfood● Dogfooding is the practice

of using your own product

● Put yourself in the shoes of the customer - make sure that your experience is as close to theirs as possible - no god mode, no free premium currency

● This gives you a big advantage when analyzing player behaviour or interpreting KPIs

● Be careful that you don’t assume that your experience is the “mean” experience though

● Not everything will be captured in tracking events + data warehouse

○ Do you need to add additional hooks?○ Use Charles Proxy to see what else the client

is sending (eg for us - outside of Swrve)● “System” tables (for us: Dynamo DB) ● Dev tools (server devs often have additional tools

and data you may not know about (for us: logstash)● Spot when data is broken (eg hacked client)● Competitor Tracking (App Annie)● Marketing data aggregators (Singular)● Platform reports (iTunes, google, Facebook)● 3rd Party user trackers (Slice, SimilarWeb,

SuperFly)

Use all the data sources!

● Mean does not tell the whole story● Look at distributions using tools like R● Use median/percentile measurements (for example measuring FPS - use

95th percentile)● In F2P games we often see long-tailed, heavily skewed distributions

○ Outliers can heavily influence means - consider removing outliers● Break users into segments (eg spend) to analyze features etc

Beware of only looking at means

● Be careful to avoid confirmation bias● Correlation does not not imply causation! Eg PvE vs retention (a/b testing is good here)● Talking a problem through with someone will often yield good results - rubber duck effect● Peer review of analysis is great for picking up mistakes and spotting additional avenues of

investigation● Effort vs business benefit - sometimes the simple version is “good enough” (ie engineering

tolerance)● A good analyst should be thinking about solutions as well as looking for the smoking gun -

this is the problem and here are suggestions for how we fix it (you are in a unique position of having the most info - use that!)

Data Analysis best practices

Communication

● Use “reverse brief”: when you receive a brief for some analysis work, write your own brief for how you will tackle the issue and the run through it with the originator○ Good way to avoid going too deep on wrong areas or not

deep enough in key areas

● Sometimes it’s easier / quicker to go lo-fi on output and run through it with someone face-to-face, rather than spending time on a polished presentation

● For presenting work: big difference between a presentation you send out to people vs presentation you present (try and avoid “wall of text”. Yes I appreciate the irony saying that on this slide!)

Communication best practices

Questions

Thankyou!

The secrets to successful F2P ad monetization: An analytics perspective

● The only deep data analytics platform dedicated to games ● End-to-end toolkit to optimize & manage engagement, retention, &

monetization

deltaDNA: powered by deep data

The evolution of analytics

The secrets to success: why players are leaving

Grinder: Set your strategyThe secrets to success: personalization

THE STATE OF PLAY

Interstitial are the most commonly shown type of ad

It is most common for interstitial ads to be combined with rewarded ads

The state of play

Most popular advert types

● Average certainty that the right approach is being taken: 54%

The state of play

The state of play Developer concerns about in-game advertising

● Larger games are more confident in their approach

The state of play

APPROACH TOWARDS ADVERTISING

Developers are cautious of using advertising, and their approach is varied

The approach taken towards advertising in games

Approach towards advertising

● Games with high ad revenues are more aggressive with ads. These games are more likely to target casual players, and player numbers are lower

Approach towards advertising

● Games with higher confidence use segmentation. Their revenue from ads is lower than average, but they may be more focused on protecting IAP revenue● Less confident games advertise more aggressively

Approach towards advertising

● There’s not much difference across genres in whether payers see ads ● Action games are less aggressive with ad serving

Approach towards advertising

THE SECRETS TO SUCCESS

● Focus on the overall monetization strategy is needed ● Data is at the heart of the solution

The secrets to success: developer recommendations

“Think of your game as a marketplace: focus on integrating monetization strategies as a joined up component of gameplay”

The secrets to success: Seeing your game as a marketplace

Uncertainty in the approach towards advertising shows a lack of analytics reporting

Unnecessary caution & fear of frightening off players with advertising

Developers don’t have the correct tools to optimize their monetization strategies

There is opportunity to increase ad density and improve ad revenues

Developers should match the ad format to the right player

Successful F2P ad monetization: key insights

/deltaDNA info@deltadna.com @deltaDNA

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