usda / national agricultural statistics service

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

AUGUST CROP REPORT

Presented at the

Midwest, Great Plains, and Western Outlook Conference

August 14, 2007

Indianapolis, IN

Jeff Geuder

Chief, Crops Branch

USDA/NASS

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Corn:

Planted Mil Ac 92.9 NC + 18.6

Harvested Mil Ac 85.4 NC + 20.9

Yield Bu/Ac 152.8 -- + 2.5

Production Bil Bu 13.1 -- + 23.9

U.S CORN PRODUCTION

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Corn:

Planted Mil Ac 92.9 NC + 18.6

Harvested Mil Ac 85.4 NC + 20.9

Yield Bu/Ac 152.8 -- + 2.5

Production Bil Bu 13.1 -- + 23.9

U.S CORN PRODUCTION

No changefrom June Up from ‘06

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Corn:

Planted Mil Ac 92.9 NC + 18.6

Harvested Mil Ac 85.4 NC + 20.9

Yield Bu/Ac 152.8 -- + 2.5

Production Bil Bu 13.1 -- + 23.9

U.S CORN PRODUCTION

2nd highest yieldon record

Recordproduction

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

11% above previous record

24% abovelast year

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

2nd highest behind 160.4 in 2004

152.8

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Corn Objective Yield RegionDerived Grain Weight vs Ears per Acre

Aug 0706

04

020301

00

94

9998

9697

95

93

9205

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

Ears Per Acre

Lbs/Ear

Very highear count

Recent trend

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

August 2007

Corn Objective Yield Sample Distribution

Maturity Code 2: Pre-blister 3: Blister 4: Milk 5: Dough 6: Dent

Dent

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Corn for Grain Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year

65-7

153#7

1707

150-6

80-65

1153

17815

157NC

18014

13217 120

-26

150#10

90-52

111-36

156-5

12515

137-1

168#16

112-17

185#NC

123-6

94-38

12514

143-16

13530

110-12

100-10

U.S. 152.83.7

# Record HighNC = No Change

11720

95-30

142#21

80-40

210#NC

1452

Better vegetative condition vs. 2006

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Corn for Grain Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year

65-7

153#7

1707

150-6

80-65

1153

17815

157NC

18014

13217 120

-26

150#10

90-52

111-36

156-5

12515

137-1

168#16

112-17

185#NC

123-6

94-38

12514

143-16

13530

110-12

100-10

U.S. 152.83.7

# Record HighNC = No Change

11720

95-30

142#21

80-40

210#NC

1452

Increased yield in some major States

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Corn for Grain Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year

65-7

153#7

1707

150-6

80-65

1153

17815

157NC

18014

13217 120

-26

150#10

90-52

111-36

156-5

12515

137-1

168#16

112-17

185#NC

123-6

94-38

12514

143-16

13530

110-12

100-10

U.S. 152.83.7

# Record HighNC = No Change

11720

95-30

142#21

80-40

210#NC

1452

Decreased yield in some minor States

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Corn for Grain Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year

65-7

153#7

1707

150-6

80-65

1153

17815

157NC

18014

13217 120

-26

150#10

90-52

111-36

156-5

12515

137-1

168#16

112-17

185#NC

123-6

94-38

12514

143-16

13530

110-12

100-10

U.S. 152.83.7

# Record HighNC = No Change

11720

95-30

142#21

80-40

210#NC

1452

Record yield in some States

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

NASS vs. Industry EstimatesCorn Production (billion bushels)

12.60

12.80

13.00

13.20

13.40

Industry Estimates Industry Average NASS

12.909

13.054

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Soybeans:

Planted Mil Ac 64.1 NC - 15.1 Harvested Mil Ac 63.3 NC - 15.2 Yield Bu/Ac 41.5 -- - 2.8 Production Bil Bu 2.63 -- - 17.7

U.S SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Soybeans:

Planted Mil Ac 64.1 NC - 15.1 Harvested Mil Ac 63.3 NC - 15.2 Yield Bu/Ac 41.5 -- - 2.8 Production Bil Bu 2.63 -- - 17.7

U.S SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

No changefrom June Down from ‘06

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Soybeans:

Planted Mil Ac 64.1 NC - 15.1 Harvested Mil Ac 63.3 NC - 15.2 Yield Bu/Ac 41.5 -- - 2.8 Production Bil Bu 2.63 -- - 17.7

U.S SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

Yield down 1.2 bu. from ‘06

Production downfrom last year’s

record

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Lowest since 2003

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Soybean Yield

41.5

20

25

30

35

40

45

Bushels/Acre

Down 1.2 bu from ‘06

Still 4th highest yield

41.5

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

August 2007

Soybean Objective Yield Sample Distribution

Maturity Code 2: Pods set, leaves green 3: Pods filled, leaves yellow

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Soybean Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year

266

383

24-7

305

47-1

47-3

50-0.5

342 38

-6

37#2

25-9

33-12

40-4

39#13

37-1

50NC

27-8

37-9

27-5

343

44-3

247

39-1

26-3

U.S. 41.5-1.2

# Record HighNC = No Change

351

33-6

328

25-6

43-1

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Soybean Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year

266

383

24-7

305

47-1

47-3

50-0.5

342 38

-6

37#2

25-9

33-12

40-4

39#13

37-1

50NC

27-8

37-9

27-5

343

44-3

247

39-1

26-3

U.S. 41.5-1.2

# Record HighNC = No Change

351

33-6

328

25-6

43-1

Small decreases in some major States

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

NASS vs. Industry EstimatesSoybean Production (billion bushels)

2.400

2.500

2.600

2.700

2.800

Industry Estimates Industry Average NASS

2.653

2.625

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom PrevSeason

Winter Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 37.2 - 1.1 + 19.5 Yield Bu/Ac 41.3 - 0.7 - 1.0 Production Bil Bu 1.54 - 1.6 + 18.4

Other Spring: Harvested Mil Ac 12.7 NC - 8.3 Yield Bu/Ac 39.3 + 0.5 + 18.4 Production Mil Bu 500 + 0.5 + 8.6

Durum Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 2.16 NC + 19.2 Yield Bu/Ac 35.5 - 2.5 + 20.3 Production Mil Bu 76.7 - 2.6 + 43.4

All Wheat: Production Bil Bu 2.11 - 1.1 + 16.7

U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION

Harvested acres reduced – flooding at harvest timeProduction up from last year’s drought

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Winter Wheat Yields, August 1, 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Month

40NC

80NC

39NC

65-5

38NC

76-5

57NC

55-3

32NC 51

NC

64-2

64-7

61#NC

42NC

40-2

431

50-1

39NC

64NC

27NC

55NC

582

28NC

U.S. 41.3-0.3

# Record High

NC = No Change

45NC

39NC

36#NC

65-2

65NC

682

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

NASS vs. Industry EstimatesWinter Wheat Production (billion bushels)

1.500

1.520

1.540

1.560

1.580

1.600

Industry Estimates Industry Average NASS

1.554

1.537

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom PrevSeason

Winter Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 37.2 - 1.1 + 19.5 Yield Bu/Ac 41.3 - 0.7 - 1.0 Production Bil Bu 1.54 - 1.6 + 18.4

Other Spring: Harvested Mil Ac 12.7 NC - 8.3 Yield Bu/Ac 39.3 + 0.5 + 18.4 Production Mil Bu 500 + 0.5 + 8.6

Durum Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 2.16 NC + 19.2 Yield Bu/Ac 35.5 - 2.5 + 20.3 Production Mil Bu 76.7 - 2.6 + 43.4

All Wheat: Production Bil Bu 2.11 - 1.1 + 16.7

U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION

6.1 bushel increase from last year

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom PrevSeason

Winter Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 37.2 - 1.1 + 19.5 Yield Bu/Ac 41.3 - 0.7 - 1.0 Production Bil Bu 1.54 - 1.6 + 18.4

Other Spring: Harvested Mil Ac 12.7 NC - 8.3 Yield Bu/Ac 39.3 + 0.5 + 18.4 Production Mil Bu 500 + 0.5 + 8.6

Durum Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 2.16 NC + 19.2 Yield Bu/Ac 35.5 - 2.5 + 20.3 Production Mil Bu 76.7 - 2.6 + 43.4

All Wheat: Production Bil Bu 2.11 - 1.1 + 16.7

U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION

Above last year but below 8 of previous 10 seasons

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

500

300

400

500

600

700

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Million Bushels

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Other Spring Wheat Yields, August 1, 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Month

66-2

502

26-3 39

2505

39-4

U.S. 39.30.2

NC = No Change

43NC Hot, dry in July

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom PrevSeason

Winter Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 37.2 - 1.1 + 19.5 Yield Bu/Ac 41.3 - 0.7 - 1.0 Production Bil Bu 1.54 - 1.6 + 18.4

Other Spring: Harvested Mil Ac 12.7 NC - 8.3 Yield Bu/Ac 39.3 + 0.5 + 18.4 Production Mil Bu 500 + 0.5 + 8.6

Durum Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 2.16 NC + 19.2 Yield Bu/Ac 35.5 - 2.5 + 20.3 Production Mil Bu 76.7 - 2.6 + 43.4

All Wheat: Production Bil Bu 2.11 - 1.1 + 16.7

U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION

Above last year but lowest since 1993

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

76.7

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

NASS vs. Industry EstimatesAll Wheat Production (billion bushels)

2.000

2.050

2.100

2.150

2.200

Industry Estimates Industry Average NASS

2.129

2.114

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Oats Mil Bu 98.3 - 2.6 + 4.9Barley Mil Bu 223 - 3.3 + 24.0Sorghum Mil Bu 475 -- + 71.1Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 69.9 -- - 2.5

Other Hay Mil Tons 75.3 -- + 7.6

U.S. PRODUCTION

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom PrevSeason

Rice Mil Cwt 190 -- - 1.7Peanuts Bil Lbs 3.37 -- - 3.0Dry Beans Mil Cwt 23.7 -- - 2.1

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 775 -- + 6.6

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 29.8 -- - 12.5

Sugarcane Mil Tons 31.5 -- + 6.5

U.S. PRODUCTION