usda / national agricultural statistics service

USDA / National Agricultural Statistics Service

AUGUST CROP REPORT

Presented at the

Midwest, Great Plains, and Western Outlook Conference

August 14, 2007

Indianapolis, IN

Jeff Geuder

Chief, Crops Branch

USDA/NASS


Crop Unit Aug ‘07

% Chgfrom PrevForecast

% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Corn:

Planted Mil Ac 92.9 NC + 18.6

Harvested Mil Ac 85.4 NC + 20.9

Yield Bu/Ac 152.8 -- + 2.5

Production Bil Bu 13.1 -- + 23.9

U.S CORN PRODUCTION


Crop Unit Aug ‘07


% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Corn:



Yield Bu/Ac 152.8 -- + 2.5


U.S CORN PRODUCTION

No changefrom June Up from ‘06


Crop Unit Aug ‘07


% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Corn:



Yield Bu/Ac 152.8 -- + 2.5


U.S CORN PRODUCTION

2nd highest yieldon record

Recordproduction


11% above previous record

24% abovelast year


2nd highest behind 160.4 in 2004

152.8


Corn Objective Yield RegionDerived Grain Weight vs Ears per Acre

Aug 0706

04

020301

00

94

9998

9697

95

93

9205

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

Ears Per Acre

Lbs/Ear

Very highear count

Recent trend


August 2007

Corn Objective Yield Sample Distribution

Maturity Code 2: Pre-blister 3: Blister 4: Milk 5: Dough 6: Dent

Dent


Corn for Grain Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year

65-7

153#7

1707

150-6

80-65

1153

17815

157NC

18014

13217 120

-26

150#10

90-52

111-36

156-5

12515

137-1

168#16

112-17

185#NC

123-6

94-38

12514

143-16

13530

110-12

100-10

U.S. 152.83.7

# Record HighNC = No Change

11720

95-30

142#21

80-40

210#NC

1452

Better vegetative condition vs. 2006



65-7

153#7

1707

150-6

80-65

1153

17815

157NC

18014

13217 120

-26

150#10

90-52

111-36

156-5

12515

137-1

168#16

112-17

185#NC

123-6

94-38

12514

143-16

13530

110-12

100-10

U.S. 152.83.7


11720

95-30

142#21

80-40

210#NC

1452

Increased yield in some major States



65-7

153#7

1707

150-6

80-65

1153

17815

157NC

18014

13217 120

-26

150#10

90-52

111-36

156-5

12515

137-1

168#16

112-17

185#NC

123-6

94-38

12514

143-16

13530

110-12

100-10

U.S. 152.83.7


11720

95-30

142#21

80-40

210#NC

1452

Decreased yield in some minor States



65-7

153#7

1707

150-6

80-65

1153

17815

157NC

18014

13217 120

-26

150#10

90-52

111-36

156-5

12515

137-1

168#16

112-17

185#NC

123-6

94-38

12514

143-16

13530

110-12

100-10

U.S. 152.83.7


11720

95-30

142#21

80-40

210#NC

1452

Record yield in some States


NASS vs. Industry EstimatesCorn Production (billion bushels)

12.60

12.80

13.00

13.20

13.40

Industry Estimates Industry Average NASS

12.909

13.054


Crop Unit Aug ‘07


% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Soybeans:

Planted Mil Ac 64.1 NC - 15.1 Harvested Mil Ac 63.3 NC - 15.2 Yield Bu/Ac 41.5 -- - 2.8 Production Bil Bu 2.63 -- - 17.7

U.S SOYBEAN PRODUCTION


Crop Unit Aug ‘07


% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Soybeans:



No changefrom June Down from ‘06


Crop Unit Aug ‘07


% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Soybeans:



Yield down 1.2 bu. from ‘06

Production downfrom last year’s

record


Lowest since 2003


U.S. Soybean Yield

41.5

20

25

30

35

40

45

Bushels/Acre

Down 1.2 bu from ‘06

Still 4th highest yield

41.5


August 2007

Soybean Objective Yield Sample Distribution

Maturity Code 2: Pods set, leaves green 3: Pods filled, leaves yellow


Soybean Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year

266

383

24-7

305

47-1

47-3

50-0.5

342 38

-6

37#2

25-9

33-12

40-4

39#13

37-1

50NC

27-8

37-9

27-5

343

44-3

247

39-1

26-3

U.S. 41.5-1.2


351

33-6

328

25-6

43-1


Soybean Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year

266

383

24-7

305

47-1

47-3

50-0.5

342 38

-6

37#2

25-9

33-12

40-4

39#13

37-1

50NC

27-8

37-9

27-5

343

44-3

247

39-1

26-3

U.S. 41.5-1.2


351

33-6

328

25-6

43-1

Small decreases in some major States


NASS vs. Industry EstimatesSoybean Production (billion bushels)

2.400

2.500

2.600

2.700

2.800


2.653

2.625


Crop Unit Aug ‘07


% Chgfrom PrevSeason

Winter Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 37.2 - 1.1 + 19.5 Yield Bu/Ac 41.3 - 0.7 - 1.0 Production Bil Bu 1.54 - 1.6 + 18.4

Other Spring: Harvested Mil Ac 12.7 NC - 8.3 Yield Bu/Ac 39.3 + 0.5 + 18.4 Production Mil Bu 500 + 0.5 + 8.6

Durum Wheat: Harvested Mil Ac 2.16 NC + 19.2 Yield Bu/Ac 35.5 - 2.5 + 20.3 Production Mil Bu 76.7 - 2.6 + 43.4

All Wheat: Production Bil Bu 2.11 - 1.1 + 16.7

U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION

Harvested acres reduced – flooding at harvest timeProduction up from last year’s drought


Winter Wheat Yields, August 1, 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Month

40NC

80NC

39NC

65-5

38NC

76-5

57NC

55-3

32NC 51

NC

64-2

64-7

61#NC

42NC

40-2

431

50-1

39NC

64NC

27NC

55NC

582

28NC

U.S. 41.3-0.3

# Record High

NC = No Change

45NC

39NC

36#NC

65-2

65NC

682


NASS vs. Industry EstimatesWinter Wheat Production (billion bushels)

1.500

1.520

1.540

1.560

1.580

1.600


1.554

1.537


Crop Unit Aug ‘07








6.1 bushel increase from last year


Crop Unit Aug ‘07








Above last year but below 8 of previous 10 seasons


U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

500

300

400

500

600

700

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Million Bushels


Other Spring Wheat Yields, August 1, 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Month

66-2

502

26-3 39

2505

39-4

U.S. 39.30.2

NC = No Change

43NC Hot, dry in July


Crop Unit Aug ‘07








Above last year but lowest since 1993


76.7


NASS vs. Industry EstimatesAll Wheat Production (billion bushels)

2.000

2.050

2.100

2.150

2.200


2.129

2.114


Crop Unit Aug ‘07


% Chgfrom Prev

Season

Oats Mil Bu 98.3 - 2.6 + 4.9Barley Mil Bu 223 - 3.3 + 24.0Sorghum Mil Bu 475 -- + 71.1Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 69.9 -- - 2.5

Other Hay Mil Tons 75.3 -- + 7.6

U.S. PRODUCTION


Crop Unit Aug ‘07



Rice Mil Cwt 190 -- - 1.7Peanuts Bil Lbs 3.37 -- - 3.0Dry Beans Mil Cwt 23.7 -- - 2.1

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 775 -- + 6.6

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 29.8 -- - 12.5

Sugarcane Mil Tons 31.5 -- + 6.5

U.S. PRODUCTION

usda / national agricultural statistics service

Documents

chgfrom prevforecast

chgfrom prevseasoncorn

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injeff geuderchief

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