vgef 2015: the future of transportation (jb straubel, cto, tesla motors inc)

Future of Transportation SessionJB Straubel

CTO, co-founderMar 15th, 2015

Corporate Overview

Headquarters Palo Alto, CA Tesla Factory Fremont, CA

EU Assembly Tilburg, NLDesign Studio Hawthorne, CA

Company Founded

Roadster Prototype

Roadster Production Launch

Nasdaq IPOPurchase Tesla Fremont Plant

N. America Model S Introduction

EU Model S Introduction

AWD Model S Launch50,000+ Total Vehicles Delivered11,000+ employees

2003

2006

2012

2013

2008

2010

2015

Oil Price: $~30/barrel

• Lead-acid technology was still status quo in 1995• Performance had stagnated

Short lifespan Very heavy Short range

Lithium ion Made Possible: 4 X gravimetric energy density 6 X volumetric energy density 3 X cycle life

Battery History

Industry first Lithium Ion EV Powertrain

4 -

Controls and Software

Power Electronics Module

(DC-AC Inverter, Charger)

53 kWh Lithium ion battery pack

250hp AC Induction Motor and

Gearbox

A New Idea in 2004:Performance Electric Cars

Focus on Energy Storage Design and Cost

Ground-up design as EV-only (Model S/X)Optimal packaging, safety and performanceHigh energy density leads to lower cost

85 kWh BatteryPack

AWD Dual Motor Platform Improved efficiency and torque distribution in Model S 85DTight integration of power electronics control with energy storage

Model SPerformance

3.2s (P85D, dual motor sport)Driving range

265 miles (US EPA rating)Advanced range capabilities

20 minute DC fast charge capability (10-60%)

“Better than anything we’ve ever tested”“99 out of 100 points”

Always Connected Glass Cockpit

An Electronics and Software Culture• Core focus and Tesla DNA• Battery voltage management• Motor Control• Diagnostics• Touchscreen• Mobile App• Traction and Stability Control• Autopilot

• Complete Over the Air Updates

Connected Vehicle Fleet

• 1,000,000+ Tesla Vehicles x 10kW On-Board Charger• 75 GWh of energy storage• 10 GW Controllable Charging Load

• 50,000+ cumulative Model S vehicles• 5 GWh of deployed energy storage

Today

2019

• Tesla Supercharger Network135 kW power (300-415VDC)0-50% SOC in 20 minutes

• Free long-range driving for Model S customers

EV Infrastructure – Tesla Supercharger

Superchargers Today (Tesla web Site “find us”)

Vehi

cle

Affor

dabi

lity

Market Size / Timing

Tesla Model S Tesla Model X

Second Generation Platform

Tesla Roadster

First Generation

Model 3 Platform

Tesla Model 3 Sedan & Crossover

Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume

Tesla Roadster

GM EV1Volu

met

ric E

nerg

y D

ensi

ty [W

h/l]

600

500

400

300

200

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

2010 2015 2020

Model S

700

Model 3

Battery Energy Density Trend

800

Vehi

cle

Affor

dabi

lity

Market Size / Timing

Tesla Model S Tesla Model X

Second Generation Platform

Tesla Roadster

First Generation

Model 3 Platform

Tesla Model 3 Sedan & Crossover

Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume

500,000 VehiclesGlobal cell supply

growing, but almost entirely in Asia

Planned 2020 Gigafactory Production Exceeds 2013 Global Production

Battery pack cost/kWh reduced >30% for Model 3

35,000 Vehicles

GW

h/Ye

ar P

rodu

ctio

n

Tesla Battery Gigafactory

Module

Cathode Manufacturing

Aluminum Foil

CathodeElectrode

AnodeElectrode

SeparatorManufacturing Separator Winding

Cell

Asse

mbl

y

Anode Manufacturing

CopperFoil

Raw

Mat

eria

ls

Cell

Cell

Cell

…

Pack

Module

Module

Module

…

PackEnclosure

Vehicle Assembly(Fremont, CA)

Can & Cap

Battery Pack Lifetime Usage

Battery PackRecycling

Raw Steel/Aluminum

Electrolyte Manufacturing

Gigafactory Process Flow

Product Line Automotive Residential Commercial

Power/Energy 310 kW / 85 kWh 5 kW / 10 kWh 200 kW / 400 kWh+

ListedOutdoor Rated

Stationary Energy Storage Product Derivatives

The Ideal Solution?

Q: What PV area is required to offset 100% ofPassenger car miles driven in the USA?1

Photovoltaic

1. 1.658 x 1012 miles in 2002 (DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics)2. cia.gov

1. Battery costs will continue to decline faster than most predictions driven by steady technology improvement and economies of scale

Future Transportation Predictions

2. Nearly all ground vehicles will evolve toward battery electric vehicles as battery costs drop (hybrids -> plug in hybrids -> Evs)

5. The growing EV fleet will integrate with growing (intermittent) renewables on the grid to allow 100% non-carbon energy for electricity and transportation

3. Bulk battery energy storage on the grid will grow rapidly and further accelerate battery cost reduction and scale increase

4. 95% autonomous, connected vehicles will become the new norm improving safety, efficiency and utility

“The stone age came to an end not for lack of stonesAnd the oil age will come to an end not for lack of oil”

— Sheikh Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister