victor cesar m. de aguiarvictor cesar m. de aguiar norwegian meteorological institute geophysical...

Modeling Oil Spills in Ice and Biological Effects(OSMICO project)

Victor Cesar M. de Aguiar

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Geophysical Institute

2020

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The OSMICO project

Researchers: Lars R. Hole (MET) (project leader),Knut-Frode Dagestad (MET), Victor de Aguiar (MET), AlexeiBambulyak (APN), Magnus Aune (APN), Denis Moiseev and

Georgy Duhno (MMBI)

Funding: The Fram Center

Goal.

To implement an oil-in-ice drift model and use it as a toolfor ecosystem consequence assessments.

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OpenDrift

OpenDrift is an open-source Lagrangian frameworkdeveloped at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and

available on: https://opendrift.github.io/

✓ Offline trajectory model – no compilation needed

✓ Coded in Python – (with GUI)

✓ Modular for different applications:

Search-and-rescue (Leeway)Oil transport and weathering (OpenOil)Plastic drift (PlastDrift)Pelagic fish eggs (PelagicEgg)Ice Bergs (OpenBerg)

✓ Forward and backward calculations

✓ Can be initialized from satellite images

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The oil-in-ice model

Rule-of-thumb

In low sea ice fraction (C<0.3): oil drifts as in openwater.

In high sea ice fraction (C≥0.8): oil drifts with the seaice.

Voil = κ(Vice)+(1−κ)(Vocean+fwVwind)

Where:

κ

⎧⎪⎪⎪⎪⎨⎪⎪⎪⎪⎩

0, if C < 0.3C−0.3

0.8−0.3 , if 0.3 ≤ C < 0.8

1, if C ≥ 0.8

Nordam et al. (2019): Improving oil spill trajectory modelling in the Arctic

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Spill Impact Mitigation Assessment

SIMA

Methodology used to select the most appropriateoption(s) for oil recovery and mitigation of potential

environmental impact.

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Oil spill simulation in the Pechora Sea

Brunnich’s guillemot distribution Apr - Nvb, 2016 - 2019; Data: NINA

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Take-home message & next steps

✓ OSMICO can be applied in SIMA method forcontingency planning and incident response.

✓ The study case showed that oil drift pattern changes in thepresence of sea ice and different mitigation techniques shouldbe applied.

⋆ Implement a second oil-in-ice module and evaluate theiroutputs against buoy trajectories.

⋆ Couple oil spill simulations to an end-to-end ecosystem model.

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Thank you!

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Questions?

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