vote buying in indonesia: learning from survey...
Post on 25-Aug-2019
214 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Vote Buying in Indonesia:
Learning from Survey Data
Indikator Politik Indonesia, and Lembaga Survei Indonesia
2013
.
• Population: all eligible voters in each of district surveyed.
• Number of districts surveyed: 39.
• Sampel: 400 for each district.
• Face-to-face interview.
• Quality control: spot-checking, 20% of total sample.
• When: September-Oktober 2013.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 8
District (Dapil) Level
.
As an effort to win the election, a particular candidate or his/her campaign team gives away a certain amount of money or goods to voters in order to have their votes. In your opinion, is this
practice acceptable or unacceptable? (%)
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 15
Is vote buying acceptable? (%)
41.5
57.9
0.50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Acceptable Unacceptable DK/DA
Survey in 39 Districts, Sep-Okc 2013
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 16
[For those who said it is acceptable] If it happens to you, are you going to accept the money/goods?
28.7
10.3
55.7
4.3 1.00
1020304050607080
Take the
money/goods
and give my
vote to the
candidate
Take all the
money/goods
and give my
vote to the
candidate who
gave the
highest value
Take all the
money, and I'll
give my vote
to the
candidate of
my own choice
Will not take
the
money/goods
DK/DA
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 17
Demographic Profile
Base Acceptable Unacceptable DK/DA
Male 50.0 40 59 1
Female 50.0 43 57 0
Rural 51.4 44 55 1
Urban 48.6 39 61 0
<= 20 4.5 42 58 1
21-25 6.8 42 57 0
26-40 38.0 43 57 0
41-55 32.9 41 59 0
> 55 17.8 41 58 1
GENDER
RURAL-URBAN
AGE
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 18
Demographic Profile (cont’d)
Base Acceptable Unacceptable DK/DA
<= Elementary 49.7 46 53 1
Junior HS 20.4 42 57 0
Senior HS 22.5 36 63 0
College 7.3 21 78 0
< 1 mil 58.6 47 53 0
1 - < 2 mil 25.6 38 61 0
=> 2 juta 15.8 29 71 0
Level of EDUCATION
INCOME (Rp.)
. 7
National Survey (March 2013)
• Population: all eligible voters in Indonesia • Sample: 1200 • MoE – assuming simple random sampling – 2.9% • Face-to-face interview • When: March 2013
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 22
If a candidate give you a certain amount of money for your vote, what would you do?
4.2
5.3
19.5
8.0
8.7
5.4
48.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
DK/DA
Take all the money and give my vote to the party that
gave the highest price
Take all the money and give my vote to the party of
my choice
Take all the money and give my vote to any of them
Just take the money from one party and give my vote
to that party
Refuse the money and give my vote to the party did
not give money or goods
Refuse the money and give my vote to the party of my
choice Those who refuse, 54.3%
Those who accept, 41.5%
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 23
Real experience: Have you ever been offered money or goods and in return you give your vote
for the party or candidate who gave the offer?
16.8
80.3
2.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Yes, I have No, I have not DK/DA
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 24
Have you ever seen someone else who received some money or goods before the election day?
8.512.2
79.1
0.20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Yes, a lot of
people around
here received it
Yes, bot not many No, I have not
seen any
DK/DA
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 28
Party ID: Is there any party that you feel close to?
Yes, there is, 14.3
No, there is not, 85.5
DK/DA, 0.2
26
51
19
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Very close Fair lyClose
Somewhatclose
DK/DA
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 29
Trend of Party ID
21
18
21
18 18
14
17
1412
14
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
Me
i'11
Jun
'11
Jul'1
1
De
s'1
1
Feb
'12
Me
i'12
Jun
'12
Okt
'12
De
s'1
2
Mar
'13
Okt
'13
Sumber sebelum Maret 2013: Survei LSI dan SMRC
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 30
43
53
4
38
63
0
34
61
6
31
69
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Would accept the money Would refuse the money DK/DA
None Somewhat close Fairly close Very close
Does Party ID make a difference? (%)
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 31
Social Organization Membership (%)
20.3
3.6 3.2
6.2
4.45.9 6.2
9.7
2.5
5.7
22.7
9.6
3.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Nah
dla
tul
Ula
ma (
NU
)
Mu
ham
mad
iyah
Oth
er
Isla
mic
Org
an
izati
on
Ch
urc
h
Ad
at
Org
an
izati
on
Yo
uth
Org
an
izati
on
s
Sp
ort
Clu
b
Lab
or
Un
ion
s,
Peasan
t
Org
an
izati
on
s
Po
liti
cal
Part
ies
Villa
ge-b
ased
yo
uth
Org
an
izati
on
s
"Ari
san
"
(Raff
le?
)
Co
op
era
tio
n
(?)
Cu
ltu
ral-
based
org
an
izati
on
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 32
42
55
4
41
54
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Will accept the
money
Will refuse the
money
DK/DA
Member
Non-member
Does social organization membership make a difference? (%)
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 33
20
23
12
17
0
5
10
15
20
25
Those who have ever
been offered …
Those who have ever seen
some else …
Member
Non-member
Exposure to money politics and organizational membership? (%)
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 37
42
54
4
41
55
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Will accept the money Will refuse the money DK/DA
Male Female
Does gender make a difference? (%)
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 38
47 50
3
36
59
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Will accept the money Will refuse the money DK/DA
Rural Urban
Does domicile make a difference? (%)
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 39
38
61
1
49 51
0
4353
3
39
56
6
40
54
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Will accept the
money
Will refuse the
money
DK/DA
<= 20 yo
21-25 yo
26-40 yo
41-55 yo
> 55 yo
Does age make a difference? (%)
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 40
49 47
5
37
60
3
37
60
3
23
70
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Will accept the
money
Will rerefuse the
money
DK/DA
<= Elementary
Junior HS
Senior HS
College
Does level of education make a difference (%)
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 41
47 49
4
41
56
3
30
66
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Will accept the
money
Will refuse the
money
DK/DA
< 1 million
1 - < 2 million
=> 2 million
Does level of income make a difference (%)
Semakin besar pendapatan semakin kecil kecenderungannya menerima pemberian.
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 42
47 484651
46
54
4651
4350
42
57
39
57
39
58
38
62
36
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Will accept the money Will not accept the money
PKB
PDIP
NASDEM
GERINDRA
PPP
HANURA
DEMOKRAT
GOLKAR
PAN
PKS
Does party make a difference? (%)
.
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 45
The effects of … on accepting/refusing the money
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
Tendency of accepting the
money
“Experience”/ exposure to
money politics
Gender (male) 0.03 0.05**
Rural-urban (rural) 0.04 0.05**
Level of education -0.29*** 0.06*
Age -0.10 -0.11***
Party ID -0.11* 0.05
Organizational membership
-0.14 0.28*
“Experience” 0.18***
(Logistic regression model)
***p<.001, **p<.01, *p<.05
top related