vulnerability and risk
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The CCA-DRM NexusKendra Gotangco
Rosa PerezManila Observatory
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Now that we have climate
projections so what?
Understanding climate variability and climate change
is just one step towards adaptation.
We also need to know HOW we may be affected bythese changes in concrete terms, and WHY we are
affected in these ways.
Only then can we formulate effective action plans.
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Outline Define the concepts of hazard, vulnerability and risk
and how they interact.
Reconcile risk and vulnerability frameworks of theclimate change and disaster risk communities.
Clarify the CCA-DRM nexus.
Introduce the role of vulnerability assessment in
adaptation.
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Why Knowing the Hazard is
Not Enough
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Hazard Hazard refer specifically to physical manifestations of
climatic variability or change, such as droughts, floods,storms, episodes of heavy rainfall, long-term changes in themean values of climatic variables, potential future shifts in
climatic regimes and so on.
Climate hazards may be defined in terms of absolute valuesor departures from the mean of variables such as rainfall,temperature, wind speed, or water level, perhaps combined
with factors such as speed of onset, duration and spatialextent.
Hazards are also referred to as climate events.
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Broad Categories of Hazards1. Discrete recurrent hazards, as in the case of transient
phenomena such as storms, droughts and extremerainfall events
2. Continuous hazards, for example increases in meantemperatures or decreases in mean rainfall occurring overmany years or decades
3. Discrete singular hazards, for example shifts in climaticregimes associated with changes in ocean circulation; thepalaeoclimatic record provides many examples of abruptclimate change events associated with the onset of newclimatic conditions that prevailed for centuries ormillennia
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Letsimagine
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Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability
lack of capacity of community toprepare, absorb, recover from hazardVulnerability
elements affected by hazardExposure
physical impact of disturbanceHazard
likelihood of harm, loss, disasterRisk
Adaptive Capacity
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Risk = H x E x V
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H
E V
R
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H
E V
R
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H
E V
R
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H
E V
R
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H
E V
R
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H
V
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Two Worlds, Two Languages?
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V =f( E, S, AC)
Exposure:nature and degree to which a system is exposed tosignificant climatic variations
Sensitivity:degree to which a system is affected, either adverselyor beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may
be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change inthe mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g.,damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastalflooding due to sea level rise).
Adaptive Capacity:The ability of a system to adjust to climatechange (including climate variability and extremes) to moderatepotential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope
with the consequences.
IPCC AR4, TAR WG2
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Vulnerability Two categories:
- Social vulnerability - a state that exists within asystem before it encounters a hazard event;Determined by factors such as poverty and inequality,marginalisation, food entitlements, access toinsurance, and housing quality
- Biophysical vulnerability - in terms of the amount of(potential) damage caused to a system by a particular
climate-related event or hazard ; This combinedvulnerability is a function of hazard, exposure andsensitivity
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IPCC Vulnerability
(Biophysical)
UN Risk
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
climate change mitigation
climate change adaptation
Hazard
Exposure
Vulnerability
(Inherent Vulnerability)
Adaptive Capacity
disaster mitigation
NOTE: Not a strict correspondence but a rough mapping to facilitatelinking of understanding of frameworks.
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Figure SPM.1 Illustration of the core concepts of the SREX (IPCC SREX SPM)
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Making Connections and
Seeking Synergies
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Figure SPM.3, IPCC SREX SPM
DRM that helps build
resilience contributes to
CCA in the long run;
however, climate change
may push us into new
extremes!
IPCC TAR WG1 2.7.1
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DRM and CCA: Points of Convergence
Climate Change Adaptation:
Reduce riskto:
Disaster Risk Management
Reduce riskto:
Gradual changes in
climatic parametersExtreme weather events
with increased
frequency and severity
Changes in
mean
temperature
Changes in
precipitation
patterns
Sea level rise
Climate- and
weather-related
events
Geophysical
eventsEcological
events
Direct connection Other events (e.g.
technological,
terrorism)
Hazards that are
associated with changing
climate normals
Hazards that are
associated with extreme
events
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Disaster RiskManagement
Climate ChangeAdaptation
SustainableCommunityDevelopment
Mitigating climate- and
weather-related disasterssupports long-termclimate change adaptationand helps reducevulnerability.
Long-term adaptation goals
and institutional capacity-building, especiallyregarding extreme weatherevents, must be streamlinedinto DRM.
Level of developmentaffects communitys
vulnerability and capacityto adapt.
CCA necessitatesadjustments in livelihoodsand lifestyle that must beintegrated withdevelopment pathways.
Disasters stall socio-economic developmentand harm livelihoods.
Development decisionsaffect distribution ofvulnerability, exposure
and disaster losses.
Climate ChangeMitigation
Amount of climatechange not mitigated
affects frequency andseverity of hazards,requiring DRM toconsider shifts inclimate patterns.
Success/failure of mitigationdictates amount of
adaptation needed.
Mitigation asserts theneed for low-emissiondevelopment pathways
and lifestyle choices.
Development activitiesdetermine amount ofemissions and thus, amountof mitigation needed.Economic growth presents achallenge to mitigation.
Gotangco Castillo, 2007; Adapted from Schipper, Lisa and Mark Pelling.
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Thank you!
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