walter hays, global alliance for disaster reduction, university of north carolina, usa

FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER

RESILIENCE

A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40 Years or More

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

BASIC PHYSICS and EARTH SCIENCE of NATURAL HAZARDS

TOWARDS A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS THAT CAUSE NATURAL

HAZARDS AROUND THE GLOBE

PART I

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES

EXPOSURE AND EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

EXPOSURE AND EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

DISASTERDISASTERDISASTERDISASTER DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCEDISASTER DISASTER

RESILIENCERESILIENCE

CITYCITYCITYCITY

NATURAL HAZARDS ARE NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES

(PART I)

DISASTERS, THE “DEFAULT OPTION” (PART II)

AND

TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR NOT; THAT IS THE QUESTION: (PART III)

PLANET EARTH IS AFFECTED BY A CONTINUUM

OF NATURAL HAZARDS

EARTHQUAKESTSUNAMIS

SEVERE WINDSTORMSVOLCANOES

FLOODS WILDFIRES

A DISASTER OCCURS WHEN THE CITY IS …

UN—PREPARED

UN—PROTECTED

UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY

UN (NON)--RESILIENT

BASIC EARTH SCIENCE

• PLATE TECTONICS

• FAULTS

• WATER CYCLE

• SOLAR HEAT

• EARTHQUAKES

• TSUNAMIS

• VOLCANOES

• FLOODS

• SEVERE WINDSTORMS

• WILDFIRES

BASIC PHYSICS

• STRESS (Compression, Tension, Shear)

• DEFORMATION (Faults, Folds)

• HEAT AND PRESSURE FLOW

• WAVES (P-, S-, Love-, Rayleigh Waves; Tsunamis)

• FLOWS, BLASTS, AND PLUMES

PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OCCUR ON MANY SCALES

• Microscopic

• Site-specific to local

• Subsurface to atmospheric

• Regional

• Continental

• OCEANIC

• Global

EARTHQUAKES:

PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE

LITHOSPHERE, CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE,

(HYDROSPHERE) AND BIOSPHERE

HEAT FLOWS FROM THE OUTER CORE

TECTONIC PLATES 200 MILLION YEARS AFTER PANGEA

NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC (JUAN DE FUCA) PLATES CONVERGING

NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC PLATES SLIDING BY EACH OTHER

NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC PLATES SLIDING BY EACH OTHER

San Andreas: A Plate BoundarySan Andreas: A Plate Boundary

WESTERN NORTH AMERICA’S NATURAL HAZARDS

WESTERN NORTH AMERICA’S NATURAL HAZARDS

• FLOODS

• EARTHQUAKES

• TSUNAMIS

• VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

• WILDFIRES

• LANDSLIDES

• FLOODS

• EARTHQUAKES

• TSUNAMIS

• VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

• WILDFIRES

• LANDSLIDES

EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S NATURAL HAZARDS

EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S NATURAL HAZARDS

• FLOODS

• HURRICANES

• EARTHQUAKES

• TORNADOES

• ICE STORMS

• LANDSLIDES

• FLOODS

• HURRICANES

• EARTHQUAKES

• TORNADOES

• ICE STORMS

• LANDSLIDES

THE CARIBBEAN PLATE AND HAITI EARTHQUAKE

PACIFIC RIM: SUBDUCTION OF CONVERGING PLATES

MOST EARTHQUAKES OCCUR IN PACIFIC RIM CONVERGENCE ZONE

INDIA-EURASIA: COLLISION OF CONVERGING PLATES

PLATE CONVERGENCE: BANDA ACHE, INDONESIA AREA

THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE

SUBSIDENCE

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING )

IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS

FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE

POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM

FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

TSUNAMIS:

PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE

LITHOSPHERE, CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE,

HYDROSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE

PHYSICS OF A TSUNAMI PHYSICS OF A TSUNAMI

THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN TSUNAMI

TSUNAMI HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD WATER WAVES

• WAVE RUNUP • FLOODING• WAVE RETREAT• SHORELINE EROSION

TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES

TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS

FLOODING

NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

SEVERE WINDSTORMS HURRICANES/TYPHOONS:

PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN, HYDROSPHERE,

ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE

HURRICANE PHYSICS

PHYSICS OF A TYPHOON

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater)

• STORM SURGE

• HEAVY PRECIPITATION

• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)

• COSTAL EROSION

• TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS

STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

POOR WORKMANSHIP

FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

•SEVERE WINDSTORMS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

SEVERE WINDSTORM SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTIONRISK REDUCTION

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY • EDUCATIONAL SURGES

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

Wind profileWind profile

Storm Hazards:Storm Hazards:-Wind pressure-Surge-Rain-Flood-Waves-Salt water-Missiles-Tornadoes

OceanOceanOceanOcean

Gradient WindGradient Wind

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS:

PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS

ENCOMPASS THE LITHOSPHERE, CORE,

MANTLE, ATMOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE

PHYSICS OF AN EXPLOSIVE VOLCANO

ACTIVE VOLCANOES

HAZARDS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME

• ASH AND TEPHRA

• LATERAL BLAST

• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

• LAhARS

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA)

IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION)

IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

IN PATH OF LAHARS

IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONREDUCTION

•PREVENTION-MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY•ADAPTATION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

FLOODS:

PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE,

AND BIOSPHERE

FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• TOO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED WITHIN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO BE ACCOMMODATED NORMALLY IN THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE

• EROSION

• SCOUR

• MUDFLOWS

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER

WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)

EROSION AND MUDFLOWS

CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND

DISASTER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND

DISASTER

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

WILDFIRES:

PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE

SCIENCE OF WILDFIRES

WILDFIRES are conflagrations caused by

lightning discharges (or acts of man) in wilderness areas close enough to an urban interface

that they threaten people, property, infrastructure, and

business enterprise.

WILDFIRES are conflagrations caused by

lightning discharges (or acts of man) in wilderness areas close enough to an urban interface

that they threaten people, property, infrastructure, and

business enterprise.

WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• FIRE

• HOT GASES AND SMOKE

• HOT SPOTS

• BURNED OUT SLOPES (with increased susceptibility to insect infestation, erosion, and landslides)

WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• SUNDOWNER WINDS

• SANTA ANNA WINDS

• LOCAL CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY

• LOCAL CHANGES IN WEATHER

LIGHTNING STRIKES

WILDFIRESWILDFIRES

MANMADE FIRES

PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE

WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT)

DRYNESS

HIGH TEMPERATURES

LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY

CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER

DISASTER LABORATORIES

DISASTER LABORATORIES

DISASTERS ARE THE CITY’S “DEFAULT OPTION”

(SEE PART II)

TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR NOT; THAT IS STILL THE QUESTION:

(PART III)