what's the damage: a polarising crisis?

A Polarising Crisis? The changing shape of the UK and US

labour markets from 2008 to 2012

James Plunkett

Director of Policy

……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

#sharedrecovery

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• As debate shifts, important question of what the recovery looks like – Quality of jobs and pay

– Scars left by the crisis

• How has the downturn reshaped labour markets? – Some occupations hit harder than others

– Some industries hit harder than others

• What does this tell us about the balance between short-term impacts vs. long-term structural trends? – Post-downturn patterns of demand

– Long-running, structural changes – impact of new technologies

Key question: how has the long downturn from 2008 to 2012 reshaped the UK and US labour markets?

#sharedrecovery

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1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market

a. …by occupations

b. …by industrial sectors

2. The story from the US

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………..

1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market

a. …by occupations

b. …by industrial sectors

2. The story from the US

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………..

1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market

a. …by occupations

b. …by industrial sectors

2. The story from the US

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………..

1993-2012: Over two decades, the UK jobs market has polarised, with middle skilled-jobs in relative decline

The changing shape of the UK labour market – 1993-2012 Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations

#sharedrecovery

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2001-2007: Polarisation was less pronounced in the run up to the crisis – particularly at the bottom

The changing shape of the UK labour market in the run up to the crisis Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2001-2007

#sharedrecovery

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2008-2012: Polarisation has accelerated again in the aftermath of the crisis

The changing shape of the UK labour market in the run up to the crisis Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

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2008-2012: Polarisation has accelerated again in the aftermath of the crisis

The changing shape of the UK labour market in the run up to the crisis Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

More routine jobs

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2008-2012: Polarisation has accelerated again in the aftermath of the crisis

The changing shape of the UK labour market in the run up to the crisis Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

More non-routine jobs

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Routine jobs have borne the brunt of post-2008 job losses. Non-routine roles have grown throughout

Impact of the crisis on routine and non-routine jobs Employment, millions, 2007-2012

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Routine Non-routine

#sharedrecovery

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Routine jobs have borne the brunt of post-2008 job losses. Non-routine roles have grown throughout

Impact of the crisis on routine and non-routine jobs Employment, millions, 2007-2012

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Routine Non-routine

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………..

1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market

a. …by occupations

b. …by industrial sectors

2. The story from the US

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. There are success stories at the top and bottom

The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

Average pay, 2008

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. There are success stories at the top and bottom

The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. There are success stories at the top and bottom

The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. There are success stories at the top and bottom

The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. There are success stories at the top and bottom

The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. There are success stories at the top and bottom

+190k

- 170k

+140k

The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………..

1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market

a. …by occupations

b. …by industrial sectors

2. The story from the US

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………..

2001-2007: As in the UK, polarisation in the US appeared to have slowed in the run up to the crisis

The changing shape of the US labour market in the run up to the crisis Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2001-2007

#sharedrecovery

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2008-2012: Polarisation has accelerated in the aftermath of the crisis from 2008 to 2012

The changing shape of the US labour market in the run up to the crisis Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. US industry trends show a clearer pattern

The changing balance of US industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

Average pay, 2008

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. US industry trends show a clearer pattern

The changing balance of US industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. US industry trends show a clearer pattern

The changing balance of US industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. US industry trends show a clearer pattern

The changing balance of US industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. US industry trends show a clearer pattern

The changing balance of US industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. US industry trends show a clearer pattern

+1.9m

- 4.4m

+0.4m

The changing balance of US industries since the crisis Change in net employment, 2008-2012

#sharedrecovery

Average pay, 2008 Change in employment, 2008-12

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• Some common findings

– Polarisation intensified after 2008

– Success of high-end services

– Employment-absorbing low paid sectors – hospitality, health

• Interpret findings carefully

– Middle is falling in relative terms – not ‘disappearing’

– Doesn’t have to mean rising inequality – also need to consider supply

• Big question: short-term impacts vs. long-running structural trends

– Clear impact from fall in demand (e.g. construction). Are we just at that point in the cycle?

– But also evidence of deeper trends – routine jobs, social care, hospitality, business activities

What lessons can we draw?

#sharedrecovery

James Plunkett

Director of Policy

……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

#sharedrecovery