where is open data in payments? how do i analyze it?

Open Data –Currency& Payments

ER. JAMES WILSONjamewils@gmail.comhttps://decipherdemon.blogspot.in/twitter.com/jamewils

Demonetisation 8th November 2016

Cash restrictions – Why?Qty & Value of SBN –media mute!When restrictions removed – No

idea!No change for new Rs. 2000 noteNo Rs.500 Note anywhere

Composition of the denominations

Pivot denomination

Currency in Circulation increased

Total SBN demonetised 86.4%

₹500• 17165 Million pieces (₹8.582 lakh

crores)₹1000• 6858 Million pieces(₹6.858 lakh crores)

Currency Print Capacities - Yearly

Nashik -5800 million

Dewas – 2820 million

Mysore & Salboni – 16000 million

RTI revelations

2.4732 billion ₹2000 notes in stock8/11/2016• ₹500 notes – nil stock

₹500 notes printing started23/11/201

6

New HDN to be printed

₹2000•956 million

₹500•17165 million

Total •18121 million

Two Scenarios of Printing

Regular – 271 days6th August 2017

Mysore & Salboni (2 shifts)Nashik & Dewas (max)

66.90 million/day

Ultimate – 204 days31st May 2017

Mysore & Salboni (3 shifts)Nashik & Dewas (max)

88.82 million/day

Look at some recent figuresCurrency on Circulation on 4/11/16 – 17,977 billionSBN on Circulation on 8/11/16 – 15,440 billionLower Denomination on 8/11/16 – 2,557 billion

Currency on Circulation on 13/01/17 – 9,508.03 billion HDN on Circulation on 13/01/17 – 7,251.03 billion (47%) HDN (₹2000 alone) on 8/11/16 – 4,946.4 billion HDN issued between 8/11/16 & 13/01/17 – 2,304.63 billion (66

days) Balance HDN to be issued – 8,188.97 billion (………..days?)

data is out and open…look for it

RBI • Annual reports• Reports of

Working Group• Database on

Indian economy• Press Releases &

Circulars• Acts & Rules

Finance Ministry• Committee/

Study Reports• Gazette

notifications & circulars

• Annual Report of SPMCIL

• FIU, CBCE, CBDT

Parliament• Question &

Answers of Finance Ministry

• House Panel Reports

Enough info/reports are available in the internet

Study Reports by International agencies like World bank, Visa, Master Card, Fletcher School, Boston Consulting Group & Google, McKinsey, CDFI, IIT, etc

Open Data bases of Central Statistical Organisation, National Crime Record Bureau, etc

Articles published in international financial journals through Google Scholar

My tool for analysis – MS Excel

Currency- GDP ratio

Currency with Public Vs GDP

Currency vs Broad Money (M3)

Currency vs Broad Money

Factors effecting currency demand Economic, Economic, technological, cultural and sociological

factors that influence currency demand differ across countries. The cross-country variations in growth, inflation and interest

rates, the rate of direct and indirect taxes, the share of informal and underground economy in the overall economic activity influences

Organization of economic activity (viz., dominance of retail vis-à-vis large-scale business), regulation of various modes of payment, proportion of migrant workers, etc. are among the important explanatory economic factors.

The extent and type of financial innovations also impact currency demand.

9 times Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is needed to reduce CIC-GDP ratio to 1%

VISA Study, October 2016 Accelerating The Growth of Digital Payments in

India – 5 year outlook For a total investment of about INR 60,000

crores over 5 years, India could reduce its cost of cash from 1.7% to 1.3% of GDP

Further it could result in savings of about INR 70,000 crores over the next five years.

Increase the numbers of acceptance points to about 4 million

Add about 40.9 million households to the financial system.

Cash - some final words For last 2600 years cash is the dominant form

of transaction globally Challenging the behaviour of use of cash is like

replacing fire or wheel Choice should be left to the stake holders

whether they want to transact with cash or digital form

Currency represents unique combination of security, liquidity and privacy

Thank you