where is open data in payments? how do i analyze it?
TRANSCRIPT
Open Data –Currency& Payments
ER. JAMES [email protected]://decipherdemon.blogspot.in/twitter.com/jamewils
Demonetisation 8th November 2016
Cash restrictions – Why?Qty & Value of SBN –media mute!When restrictions removed – No
idea!No change for new Rs. 2000 noteNo Rs.500 Note anywhere
Composition of the denominations
Pivot denomination
Currency in Circulation increased
Total SBN demonetised 86.4%
₹500• 17165 Million pieces (₹8.582 lakh
crores)₹1000• 6858 Million pieces(₹6.858 lakh crores)
Currency Print Capacities - Yearly
Nashik -5800 million
Dewas – 2820 million
Mysore & Salboni – 16000 million
RTI revelations
2.4732 billion ₹2000 notes in stock8/11/2016• ₹500 notes – nil stock
₹500 notes printing started23/11/201
6
New HDN to be printed
₹2000•956 million
₹500•17165 million
Total •18121 million
Two Scenarios of Printing
Regular – 271 days6th August 2017
Mysore & Salboni (2 shifts)Nashik & Dewas (max)
66.90 million/day
Ultimate – 204 days31st May 2017
Mysore & Salboni (3 shifts)Nashik & Dewas (max)
88.82 million/day
Look at some recent figuresCurrency on Circulation on 4/11/16 – 17,977 billionSBN on Circulation on 8/11/16 – 15,440 billionLower Denomination on 8/11/16 – 2,557 billion
Currency on Circulation on 13/01/17 – 9,508.03 billion HDN on Circulation on 13/01/17 – 7,251.03 billion (47%) HDN (₹2000 alone) on 8/11/16 – 4,946.4 billion HDN issued between 8/11/16 & 13/01/17 – 2,304.63 billion (66
days) Balance HDN to be issued – 8,188.97 billion (………..days?)
data is out and open…look for it
RBI • Annual reports• Reports of
Working Group• Database on
Indian economy• Press Releases &
Circulars• Acts & Rules
Finance Ministry• Committee/
Study Reports• Gazette
notifications & circulars
• Annual Report of SPMCIL
• FIU, CBCE, CBDT
Parliament• Question &
Answers of Finance Ministry
• House Panel Reports
Enough info/reports are available in the internet
Study Reports by International agencies like World bank, Visa, Master Card, Fletcher School, Boston Consulting Group & Google, McKinsey, CDFI, IIT, etc
Open Data bases of Central Statistical Organisation, National Crime Record Bureau, etc
Articles published in international financial journals through Google Scholar
My tool for analysis – MS Excel
Currency- GDP ratio
Currency with Public Vs GDP
Currency vs Broad Money (M3)
Currency vs Broad Money
Factors effecting currency demand Economic, Economic, technological, cultural and sociological
factors that influence currency demand differ across countries. The cross-country variations in growth, inflation and interest
rates, the rate of direct and indirect taxes, the share of informal and underground economy in the overall economic activity influences
Organization of economic activity (viz., dominance of retail vis-à-vis large-scale business), regulation of various modes of payment, proportion of migrant workers, etc. are among the important explanatory economic factors.
The extent and type of financial innovations also impact currency demand.
9 times Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is needed to reduce CIC-GDP ratio to 1%
VISA Study, October 2016 Accelerating The Growth of Digital Payments in
India – 5 year outlook For a total investment of about INR 60,000
crores over 5 years, India could reduce its cost of cash from 1.7% to 1.3% of GDP
Further it could result in savings of about INR 70,000 crores over the next five years.
Increase the numbers of acceptance points to about 4 million
Add about 40.9 million households to the financial system.
Cash - some final words For last 2600 years cash is the dominant form
of transaction globally Challenging the behaviour of use of cash is like
replacing fire or wheel Choice should be left to the stake holders
whether they want to transact with cash or digital form
Currency represents unique combination of security, liquidity and privacy
Thank you