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Work-Centered Approach to Insurgency Campaign Analysis
Paper I-029
Dennis K. Leedom, Ph.D.Evidence Based Research, Inc.
David F. Noble, Ph.D.Evidence Based Research, Inc.
Robert G. Eggleston, Ph.D.Air Force Research Laboratory, AFRL/HEC
2Analysts’ Needs and Analytic Strategy
• Incrementally build understanding in a “top down” and “bottom up” manner simultaneously, so as to construct and maintain a feasible story regarding an insurgency campaign’s lines of operation and tactical actions
• Stories are epistemologically framed by a work control structure that coherently connects an insurgency’s intent with its capabilities and provides a cause/effect context for explaining observed and predicted events and conditions
• Incorporate multiple perspectives, so as appreciate the breadth and complexity of the operational and tactical problem space impacted by the insurgency campaign
• Construct situational meaning of observed events and conditions as a function of their negotiated placement within an overall story –i.e., understanding is autopoietic in nature
• Treat beliefs as nonpersistent, situation-dependent propositions, not static, universal truths –i.e., beliefs will change in relation to the emergent and opportunistic strategies and tactics of the insurgency movement
Analytic strategy:
• Reduce disorder
Two basic needs of the analysts:(ambiguity and equivocality) to provide a
coherent explanation of a complex and evolving situation• Instantiate beliefs to a workable level of certainty
BRACKETED EVENTSAND CONDITIONS
IMPOSEDORDER
3Epistemological Structure
Organizati
Operational Focus & Desired Endstate
Ecological Purpose
onal Elements
Work System Capacities
Dedicated Resources
Actions & Effects
Targeted Objects, Events& Conditions
Influence Pathways
INTENT
CAPABILITY
ACTION
STORY LINE
4Constructed Story Lines
Organizational Elements
Work System Capacities
Dedicated Resources
Actions & Effects
Targeted Objects, Events& Conditions
Operational Focus & Desired Endstate
INTENT
ACTION
Influence Pathways
Ecological Purpose
CAPABILITY
ObservableTriplet
5Hypothesis Instantiation
Influence Pathways
Operational Focus & Desired Endstate
Ecological Purpose
Time
Observable TripletTargeted object, event, conditionAction taken by insurgencyDedicated resource executing the action
Primary intended effectSecondary effect or unintended consequence
5.0 High3.5 Moderate Supportive2.0 Slight Evidence1.0 Neutral0.5 Slight0.3 Moderate Contradictive0.2 High Evidence
Evidence RatioBAYESIAN BELIEF STRENGTHS
6Dynamic Evidence Strengths
Item Evidence Ratio Date Current Likelihood2-Jan-02 20.0%
1 0.2 15-Jun-03 4.8%2 0.3 25-Oct-03 1.5%3 1 8-Mar-04 1.5%4 5 10-Nov-04 7.0%5 5 20-Feb-05 27.3%6 7 30-May-05 72.4%7 5 10-Jun-05 92.9%8 6 18-Sep-05 98.7%9 6 14-Feb-06 99.8%
BELIEF STRENGTH
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2-Jan
-022-M
ay-02
2-Sep-0
22-J
an-03
2-May-0
32-S
ep-03
2-Jan
-042-M
ay-04
2-Sep-0
42-J
an-05
2-May-0
52-S
ep-05
2-Jan
-06
Date
Stre
ngth
BELIEF STRENGTH
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2-Jan
-022-M
ay-02
2-Sep-0
22-J
an-03
2-May-0
32-S
ep-03
2-Jan
-042-M
ay-04
2-Sep-0
42-J
an-05
2-May-0
52-S
ep-05
2-Jan
-06
Date
Stre
ngth
Bayesian analysis maintains evidentiary strength of each influence pathway based on
stream of supportive and contradictory evidence
( ) priorevidenceprior
evidencepriorposterior ESRATIOES
RATIOESES
−+⋅
⋅=
1
7Assessment of Campaign Progress
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DInfluencePathway 1
DesiredEndstate
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DInfluencePathway 2
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DInfluencePathway 3
DesiredEndstate
MilestoneNon-threateningSignificant ProgressCritical Point
Key Event(Triad)
Key Event(Triad)
Key Event(Triad)
Key Event(Triad)
Key Event(Triad)
Key Event(Triad)
Key Event(Triad)
Key Event(Triad)
Goals of theInsurgency
Story lines are constructed around hypothesized lines of operation. Triads are graphically displayed along a temporal scale and compared with key progress milestones to define the history and current state of the insurgency campaign.
Present Time
8Neural Network Influences
Influence Pathways
Operational Focus & Desired Endstate
Ecological Purpose
Organizational Elements
Work System Capacities
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Key Event(Triad)
Key Event(Triad)
Key Event(Triad)
MAINEFFECT
2nd-OrderConsequence Negative
Consequence
TIME
9
XYZResistanceMovement
XYZ PowerStructure
NationalGovernment
WesternImperialism
Corporations& Schools
MultinationalIntervention
MajorityPopulation A
MinorityPopulation B
MinorityPopulation C
ParliamentarySystem
Population CDiaspora
SupportingCountry Orange
ResistanceMilitia
InternalSecurity
Health & SocialServices
EconomicReconstruction
Family & MartyrSupport
Training &Indoctrination
ForeignRelations
PoliticalCoalition
Media &Propaganda
CentralPolitburo
ExecutiveCouncil
MilitaryApparatus
XYZResistanceMovement
Operational Focus & System Influence Pathways
Organizational Work System Capabilities
Cause/Effect Connections ?
Fictitious Case Study – Network of Hypotheses
10
Social ConditionGov’t Unpopularity
Insurgent-LedProtest March
IED Attacks TargetWestern Interests
Reconstruction &Social Services
Time
Stream ofObservable
Events
Fictitious Case Study – Observable Events
11
XYZResistanceMovement
XYZ PowerStructure
NationalGovernment
WesternImperialism
Corporations& Schools
MultinationalIntervention
MajorityPopulation A
MinorityPopulation B
MinorityPopulation C
ParliamentarySystem
Population CDiaspora
SupportingCountry Orange
ResistanceMilitia
InternalSecurity
Health & SocialServices
EconomicReconstruction
Family & MartyrSupport
Training &Indoctrination
ForeignRelations
PoliticalCoalition
Media &Propaganda
CentralPolitburo
ExecutiveCouncil
MilitaryApparatus
XYZResistance
Organization
Social ConditionGov’t Unpopularity
Insurgent-LedProtest March
IED Attacks TargetWestern Interests
Reconstruction &Social Services
3.0 0.7 1.8 2.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 3.0 1.8 1.3
Fictitious Case Study – Evidence Ratios
12
System Influence Pathways(Lines of Operation)
OperationalProgressTowardDesired
End State
OperationalPlanner
Stable Govt / PeaceMinor ProtestsMajor DissensionSporadic ViolenceDeclining Govt ControlWarring FactionsCivil WarAnarchy
Phases ofInsurgencyCampaign
Corporations& Schools
ParliamentarySystem
MinorityPopulation B
Supporting Country Orange
Population CDiaspora
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Areas ofDiplomacy and
Stability OperationsAttention
Fictitious Case Study – Updated Belief Strengths
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