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Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No:
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT
FOR
SMALL RETF GRANT
(US$ 2.2 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
TO THE
GOVERNMENT OF SENEGAL
FOR A
STATISTICS FOR RESULTS PROJECT
February 20, 2014
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the
performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World
Bank authorization.
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ii
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
1USD = 510 FCFA, July 15, 2013
FISCAL YEAR
January 1 – December 31
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AfDB African Development Bank
ANSD National Agency for Statistics and Demography
CCI Construction Costs Index
CNS National Statistics Council
CPS Country Partnership Strategy
CRESS Country Report on Support to Statistics
DP Development Partners
ENSAE National School of Statistics and Economic Analysis
ETVA Transition to Working Life Survey
FM Financial Management
ILO International Labour Organisation
MDG Millennium Development Goals
NAEMA Nomenclature for the Activities of AFRISTAT Member States
NSDS National Strategy for Development of Statistics
NSS National Statistical System
PER-Stat. Public Expenditure Review for statistics
PPRA Public Procurement Regulation Agency
PSI Policy Support Instrument
SBDS Standard Bidding Documents
SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standard
SNDES National Strategy for Economic and Social Development
SNES Senegal National Employment Survey
SPPI Services Production Price Index
SRF Statistics for Results
SRF-CF Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund
SYSCOA West Africa Accounting System
TCSP - CTPS Technical Committee of Statistical Programs
TSA Tourism Satellite Account
Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop
Country Director: Vera Songwe
Sector Director: Marcelo Giugale
Sector Manager: Miria Pigato
Task Team Leader: Philip English
iii
SENEGAL
Statistics for Results Project
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. Introduction and Context ..................................................................................................7
A. Country Context ............................................................................................................ 7
B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ................................................................................. 8
C. Relationship to CPS ...................................................................................................... 9
II. Proposed DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ...................................................................9
A. Proposed Development Objective............................................................................... 10
D. Project Beneficiaries ................................................................................................... 10
B. Key Results Indicators ................................................................................................ 10
III. Project DESCRIPTION ..................................................................................................10
A. Project Components .................................................................................................... 10
B. Project Financing ........................................................................................................ 12
C. Project Cost and Financing ......................................................................................... 13
IV. IMPLEMENTATION .....................................................................................................14
A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ........................................................ 14
B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................ 14
C. Sustainability............................................................................................................... 14
V. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ..............................................................................................17
A. Economic and Financial Analyses .............................................................................. 17
B. Financial Management ................................................................................................ 17
C. Procurement ................................................................................................................ 18
D. Safeguard Policies ....................................................................................................... 19
iv
DATA SHEET
SENEGAL
Project Name
Statistics for Results Project
AFRICA
AFTPM
Basic Information
Date: Sectors: General Public Administration (BC), Vocational
Training (EV)
Country Director: Vera Songwe Themes: Managing for Development Results (30%), Economic
Statistics, Modeling and Forecasting (40%), Improving Labor Market
(30%)
EA Category: C
Sector
Manager/Director:
Marcelo Giugale
Project: P146695
Instrument: Grant SFR-CF
Team Leader(s): Philip English
Recipient Government of Senegal
Executing Agency: Agence Nationale de la statistique et de la démographie – ANSD
Contact: Mr. Babakar Fall Title: Director General
Telephone No.:
Fax No. +221 869 21 40
+221 33 824 36 15
Email: babakar.fall@ansd.sn or babakarfall@yahoo.fr
Project Implementation Period: Start Date: May 2014 End Date: April 2017
Expected Effectiveness Date: April 1, 2014
Expected Closing Date: August 31, 2017
Project Financing Data(US$M)
[ ] Loan [X] Grant [ ] Other
[ ] Credit [ ] Guarantee
For Loans/Credits/Others
Total Project Cost : US$2.2 million Total Bank Financing : US$2.2 million
Total Co financing : Financing Gap : 0
Financing Source Amount(US$M)
BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.0
IBRD
IDA: New
v
IDA: Recommitted
Others US$2.2 million
Financing Gap
Total US$ 2.2 million
Expected Disbursements (in USD Million)
Fiscal Year FY14 FY15 FY16
Annual 0.584 0.711 0.605
Cumulative 0.584 1,295 1,900
Project Development Objective(s)
Components
Component Name Cost (USD Millions)
Production of statistics 1.085
ENSEA-Senegal & Training 0.432
Project coordination and M&E 0.383
Compliance
Policy
Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant respects? Yes [[ ] No [ X ]
Does the project require any exceptions from Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ x ]
Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ ]
Is approval for any policy exception sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ x ]
Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ x ] No [ ]
Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No
Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X
Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X
Forests OP/BP 4.36 X
Pest Management OP 4.09 X
Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X
Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X
Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X
Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X
Projects on International Waters OP/BP 7.50 X
Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X
Legal Covenants
Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency
vi
Description of Covenant
Team Composition
Bank Staff
Name Title Specialization Unit UPI
Philip English Lead Economist Task Team Leader AFTP4 98408
Françoise Genouille Statistical Officer Statistics AFTPM 20825
Sidy Diop Senior Procurement Specialist Procurement AFTPC 334834
Fatou Fall Samba Financial Management Specialist Financial Management AFTFM 322681
Djibril Ndoye Poverty Economist Poverty and statistics AFTP4 288526
Khady Fall Lo Program Assistant Program Assistant AFTP4 354385
Non Bank Staff
Name Title Office Phone City
Locations
Country First Administrative
Division
Location Planned Actual Comments
7
I. INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
A. Country Context
1. Senegal’s democratic system confirmed its maturity by holding the recent
presidential election (February-March 2012), which was widely viewed as fair and
transparent. The country saw the victory of opposition parties and the second political shift in
12 years. Despite deadly protests preceding the first round of voting on February 26, 2012, the
second round on March 25, 2012 was calm. The incumbent President Abdoulaye Wade conceded
his defeat three-and-a-half hours after voting closed. Macky Sall, the leader of the opposition,
was sworn in as President on April 2, 2012. He faces huge challenges, such as restoring trust and
confidence in the state and the values of the Senegalese republic while also meeting urgent
popular demand for action on jobs and the cost of living.
2. In the decade since 1995, Senegal enjoyed robust per capita GDP growth, but,
starting in 2006, the economy was buffeted by a series of domestic and external shocks. Unfavorable rains prompted a sharp decline in agricultural output during 2006-07. The
international food and oil price shocks over 2007-08 slowed the economy down, increased
inflation, and resulted in a significant deterioration of Senegal’s external and fiscal positions.
Weaknesses in fiscal policy and public financial management compounded the fiscal costs of
ineffective and untargeted subsidies for electricity and food. As a result, by the end of 2008 the
Government had accumulated domestic arrears to the private sector equivalent to more than 3
percent of GDP, forcing a strong corrective response that tightened fiscal policy. The onset of the
global financial crisis in 2008 and its deepening in 2009, together with continued electricity
shortages, further contributed to the general slowdown of the country’s economic activity. Real
annual GDP growth averaged 3.4 percent in the 2006-10 period, down from an average of 4.4
percent in the 2000-05 period.
3. Despite the crisis in Mali and political uncertainties in the first quarter, growth
rebounded to 3.5 percent in 2012 up from 2.6 percent in 2011 thanks to strength in services
and good agricultural production. In 2011, real GDP growth slowed to 2.6 percent, due to a
large contraction in agricultural output. Agricultural output declined drastically in the fourth
quarter when more than 50 percent of the annual production is harvested, leading to a fall in
annual output of 21 percent. However, electricity supply improved, which helped a recovery in
manufacturing. Dynamism in the telecommunication, transport, and financial sectors contributed
to the good performance of the tertiary sector. The poor harvest in 2011 limited the input supply
for the agroindustry sector and weakened vegetable oil production in 2012. Import demand from
Mali (Senegal’s largest single export market) softened somewhat due to the insecurity situation,
impacting cement and petroleum exports, as well as transit trade services. However, the good
harvest in 2012 as well as strong performance in the emerging gold sector allowed Senegal to
accelerate growth to 3.5 percent. Growth is expected to improve to 4.6 percent in 2014.
4. Despite recent increases in food prices in the world market, inflation has declined to
1.4 percent, down from 3.4 percent in 2011, while the food component rose by 2.5 percent
driven by the bad crop harvest in 2011. Inflation was 0.7 percent in 2013.
5. In June 2013, the IMF completed the fifth review of the three-year Policy Support
Instrument (PSI) for Senegal. Performance under the program has been broadly satisfactory,
with all quantitative assessment criteria met, and most structural benchmarks – mainly in public
8
financial management – met or partially met. The authorities have requested that the PSI be
extended by one year to end-2014, and this was agreed by the IMF Board.
6. Senegal approved in November 2012 the National Strategy for Economic and Social
Development (SNDES). This serves as the reference framework for Senegal’s economic and
social policy over the period 2013-17. An Indicator Monitoring Committee has been established
under the National Agency for Statistics and Demography (ANSD) supervision to produce a
periodic report on SNDES implementation.
B. Sectoral and Institutional Context
7. Statistics development in Senegal. Since 2004 Senegal has strengthened its National
Statistical System (NSS) with the establishment of a more independent statistical institution
(“Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie – ANSD”), a statistical law, a
National Strategy for the Development of Statistics, NSDS (“Schéma Directeur de la
Statistique”), and the establishment of a new statistical school (ENSAE-Senegal). Recently, in
2011; a new statistical law was approved focusing on the organization of the nation-wide survey
program, the access to data and the management for results approach for the statistical
development. The National Statistics Council (CNS), the highest level of coordination body of
the NSS, validated the NSDS action plan during a meeting held in March 2011. Overall NSDS
implementation is supervised by the multi sector Technical Committee of Statistical Programs
(CTPS), with ANSD ensuring the secretariat.
8. The coordination of the NSS (with more than 100 statistical units) has been
identified as a constraint to improving efficiency in statistical production. Some entities of
the statistical system, particularly those in the line ministries, lack technical capacity to produce
reliable and relevant data and analysis. The new framework for the development of statistics
(NSDS) assigns ANSD as the coordinator of the system to provide methodological support and
quality control. Under the NSDS, support will be provided to different sectors to improve the
production of statistics production in fields deemed important in SNDES and NSDS and to
improve the coverage of National Accounts.
9. The current NSDS is based on four program areas: (i) strengthening the institutional
set-up; (ii) improving the quality of statistical products; (iii) improving the dissemination and
promotion of the utilization of statistics; and (iv) capacity building to ensure the efficiency of the
SNS. The NSDS breaks down all activities and their costs by strategic program area, objective
and action plan. The selected activities are translated into projects during the implementation of
the NSDS.
10. The data collection program is strong with regular income-expenditure household
surveys (ESPS), demographic and health surveys (DHS-MICS), and a population census linked
with an agriculture census (RGP IV- RGAE). The last ESPS and DHS were conducted in 2011
and the population census was carried out in 2013. A variety of other surveys is conducted as
part of the multi-year survey program of ANSD and in response to special requests from donors.
ANSD has established a data bank (« Archivage national des données d'enquêtes du Sénégal –
ANADS »), which contributes to the dissemination of primary data. ANSD intends to adopt SNA
2008 for its System of National Accounts and expects to be upgraded to the IMF Special Data
9
Dissemination Standard (SDDS) in 2013 with the production of employment statistics (a
component of the SFR project).
11. The Development Partners (DP) have established a « Thematic Group to finance
NSDS implementation » chaired by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and UNFPA to
coordinate donor efforts in supporting Senegal’s statistical development. In an effort to manage
the funding of Senegal’s statistical development, ANSD with World Bank support, conducted a
Public Expenditure Review for statistics (PER-Stat). As part of the PER-Stat, ANSD prepared a
Country Report on Support to Statistics (CRESS), which describes the funding of statistical
activities in Senegal by twelve donors, and indicates a sharp increase in partner support for 2012.
The plan now is to establish a Statistical Development Fund to which interested donors would
contribute for the implementation of the national statistics strategy in a more predictable and
efficient manner, avoiding ad hoc requests and focusing resources on national priorities.
12. The current proposal is intended to fill gaps in the survey program established
under the NSDS with support from a previous World Bank TF. Other donors have financed
key surveys in the areas of health and education (USAID, UNICEF), agriculture (WFP, FAO),
and poverty (CIDA, UNDP, World Bank). It focuses on the performance and needs of the private
sector, which tend to be less popular with other donors, but are central to improving the
development prospects of the country.
13. The government of Senegal is strongly supportive of the greater use of statistics for
policy-making and impact evaluations of development policies. In fact, a recent ministerial
seminar on National Accounts, chaired by the (former) Head of State, brought statistics and
statistical development issues to the forefront of the national policy dialogue.
C. Relationship to CPS
14. The proposed project is aligned with the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for
Senegal. Specifically, it supports the priority attached to inclusive growth and job creation
through private sector development. In addition, it responds to the IDA16 Results Measurement
System requirement that all CPSs include a review of national statistical systems and an
identification of what is needed to strengthen capacity, both to generate and to use statistical
information. The project will also contribute to monitoring performance of the poverty reduction
strategy (SNDES), notably in the areas of employment generation and tourism development.
Furthermore, it is fully consistent with the first pillar of the 2011 Africa Regional Strategy –
competitiveness and employment. Finally, the Bank’s support to the NSDS program is in line
with the Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund (SRF-CF) that aims to provide support to
developing countries to help in improving their statistical capacity.
II. PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
15. The Government of Senegal has reformed its statistical system to make it more
competitive and responsive to the economic, political and social changes under way, to
address the needs of the National Strategy for Economic and Social Development (SNDES)
and Millennium Development Goals (MDG). The provision of good quality statistics will also
10
contribute to stronger governance and accountability and the creation of an evidence-based
decision-making culture.
A. Proposed Development Objective
16. The development objective of the proposed project is to better inform public and
private sector decision-makers by filling gaps in the statistical knowledge base in the areas
of employment, tourism, construction and services, as identified in the NSDS, as well as
build capacity for the production and dissemination of reliable and relevant data.
D. Project Beneficiaries
17. Major beneficiaries are key producers and users of statistics in Senegal. They
include: (i) ANSD and key Ministries, Departments and Agencies, Local Government
Authorities, who are responsible for the SNDES monitoring systems; (ii) policy makers and
planners in the public and private sectors; (iii) researchers and academia; (iv) international
organizations, including donors; and (v) the civil society in general through better and faster
access to information.
B. Key Results Indicators
18. The project expected results are in line with those of the NSDS and aim to inform
public and private decision makers and social players on: (i) the evolution of the prices of
services at the production level through a monthly index based on existing regional and
international methodologies; (ii) price levels and trends of the construction sector based on
existing regional and international methodologies; (iii) jobs and the job market through a system
of periodic surveys: and (iv) the size and composition of the tourism sector. It also aims to: (v)
respond to the demand for statisticians of the public and private sectors by implementing the
strategy of the ENSAE-Senegal; and (vi) improve demand-side management by establishing an
annual user satisfaction survey.
19. The achievement of the PDO will be measured by user satisfaction with the
availability, quality, and timeliness of the following statistics on a quarterly or monthly
basis: (i) price index for production of services; (ii) cost of construction index; (iii) employment
conditions and labor statistics; and (iv) tourism statistics. Another outcome indicator will be the
availability of female statisticians for the public and private sector.
III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
A. Project Components
20. The project has three components, which are integral parts of the NSDS, and are
designed to support the implementation of the four programs of the NSDS and complete
the system of data collection. Their selection was made taking into account the priorities of the
National Strategy for Economic and Social Development (SNDES).
11
Component 1 – Production of Statistics
21. This component has three sub-components that are carried out by ANSD: (i) Price
statistics for production of services; (ii) construction statistics, and (iii) employment and labor
market conditions statistics; and one sub-component that will be carried out by the Ministry of
Tourism (with the support of ANSD).
Price statistics for production of services: For many years, Senegal has shifted toward a
service-oriented economy. The service sector is the main provider of employment and
income, providing over 50% of GDP. In addition to trade and public administration, the
sector is dominated by transport services, postal and telecommunications service,
financial services and miscellaneous business services. The costs of these services are an
important part of the operating costs of enterprises present in the country. Monitoring of
the prices of services (level and evolution) has become very important and highly
demanded by users. The project will develop a methodology and establish a mechanism
to produce Services Production Price Index on monthly basis (SPPI)1.
Construction Costs Statistics: The Construction Costs Index (CCI) concerns mainly the
construction of houses, but it can be adapted to other Buildings and Public Works. The
construction industry is one of the most dynamic sectors of the economy. The
implementation of major construction programs in housing and infrastructure highlights
the urgent need for monitoring indicators of construction costs so as to control allocation
mechanisms and price revisions of public and private markets. These price indicators
would also serve as a useful basis to define a housing and social infrastructure policy.
AFRISTAT has already developed methodologies for constructing the CCI and public
works indices, and Senegal plans to adapt them. The project will develop a methodology
and establish a mechanism to produce a monthly CCI (Indice des prix à la construction).
Employment and labor market conditions statistics:. Job creation has become a top
priority for the government of Senegal but statistics on the labor market are seriously
lacking. Such data are essential for assessing the impact of policies, projects and
development programs included in the SNDES. To understand this poorly documented
and multidimensional reality, it appears crucial to examine in more depth employment
conditions and disparities between demographic groups. This information is crucial to
design employment policies that address the causes of unemployment and
underemployment and fight against poverty. The project will develop methodologies to
establish a permanent mechanism to measure employment characteristics in Senegal
through a quarterly employment survey -National Employment Survey in Senegal
(Enquête Nationale sur l’Emploi au Sénégal -- ENES).
Elaboration of a Tourism Satellite Account: Support to the tourism sector has been
identified by the Technical Committee for Statistical Programs (TCSP) as a priority. The
operation will support the ministry responsible for tourism in the elaboration of a
Tourism Satellite Account (TSA), which will measure the importance and the impact that
1 Indice des Prix à la Production des Services
12
tourism has on the Senegalese economy, as measured by the national accounts. Tourism
is an inherently difficult sector to measure, and this often leads to underestimation of its
importance and a misunderstanding of its evolution. Yet it probably remains the single
most important export of goods and services. This component will help ANSD fulfill its
broader mandate of supporting statistics capacity in line ministries.
Component 2 - ENSAE–Senegal & Training:
22. The ENSAE-Senegal is a new institution and is still under development. Indeed,
ENSAE-Senegal started its training activities in October 2008 with the installment of its
progressive programs for initial and continuing training. The release of its first graduates was in
June 2011. The main mission of ENSAE-Senegal is to meet the demand for training,
development and innovation by the national statistical system and public and private companies.
To achieve this, it is imperative that ENSAE-Senegal has a strategic plan that will define the
major policies for its future development. The project will support the overall teaching capacity
of the school by strengthening the capacity of trainers; reinforcing the bilingualism (French,
English) of trainees; facilitating the enrollment of women; expanding the library; and providing
furniture and equipment for the new location of the school in the ANSD building.
Component 3 – Project coordination and M&E:
23. With the adoption of the NSDS, Senegal shifted its approach of developing statistics
from a supply-driven to a demand-driven one; it needs a tool to monitor the demand and
feedbacks from users. The project will develop methodologies to establish a permanent
mechanism to measure the evolution of the demand of statistics through an annual user
satisfaction survey. Specific questions in the survey will focus on the products developed under
this project to enable an evaluation of project performance. The rest of this component will cover
project implementation and will be funded primarily by the ANSD budget.
B. Project Financing
24. The project will be financed by the Statistics for Results Facility– Catalytic Fund 2
(SRF-CF2). The Catalytic Fund grant will complement the support from other donors to finance
the implementation of the NSDS.
2 The SFR-CF is a global partnership initiative to scale up investments in statistical capacity. The SRF-CF (financed
by the Netherlands and DfID) is managed by the World Bank and provides grants to support countries that commit
to the principles of the Catalytic Fund Charter. Senegal submitted its SRF-CF application in April 2011; the grant
allocation request was approved by in December 2011by the SRF-CF Council.
13
C. Project Cost and Financing
Table 1: Project Costs by Components (US$)
Project ComponentsProject
costGrant Financing % Financing
Component 1: Production of Statistics 1,085,182
1. Price statistics for production of services 111,000
2. Construction costs Statistics 116,591
3. Employment and labor market conditions Statistics. 725,455
4. Tourism satellite account 132,136
Component 2 ENSAE–Senegal & Training 431,818
Component 3: Project coordination, monitoring and
evaluation 383,000
1. User satisfaction survey 129,781
2. Coordination: M&E SFR 201,384
Total Baseline Costs 1,900,000
Physical contingencies 100,000
Price contingencies 100,000
Total Project Costs 2,100,000
Interest During Implementation
Front-End Fees 100,000
Total Financing Required 2,200,000
14
IV. IMPLEMENTATION
A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements
25. The Agence National de la Statistique et de la Démographie (ANSD), which is
responsible for overall NSDS implementation, will be the executing agency of the project. Other entities of the NSS will benefit from the project and are involved in its technical execution.
For example, under component 3, the elaboration of the Tourism Satellite Account will be
carried out jointly by the Ministry of Tourism and Air Transport and the ANSD.
B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation
26. The results framework of the project is part of a coordinated monitoring framework
for the overall NSDS. The overall results indicators focus on user satisfaction with the products
of the project, and the share of women among graduates of the statistics school, ENSAE.
Intermediate results indicators will include: (a) the regular production and dissemination of price
statistics for production of services; (b) the regular production and dissemination of the
Construction Cost Index (CCI); (c) a system to monitor employment conditions and labor market
issues through the implementation of the quarterly Senegal National Employment Surveys
(SNES); (d) a Tourism Satellite Account; and (e) an increase of women enrolled in the ENSAE.
ANSD will regularly monitor the PDO level and intermediate results indicators in accordance
with the results framework specified in Annex 1. The Bank team will pay particular attention to
the public availability of all data collected under the project and will work with ANSD to help
ensure its user-friendly nature.
C. Sustainability
27. The activities financed by the project are part of the NSDS and will become regular
activities for ANSD and ENSAE. They will therefore receive the appropriate funding after the
end of the project. In addition, Senegal is establishing a basket fund for the development of
statistics (Fonds de développement statistique) which will be fed by the national budget and
contributions of development partners. It is expected that this mechanism will allow a more
sustainable, predictable and appropriate funding for statistical activities.
IV. OVERALL RISK RATINGS
28. Overall Preparation Risk is expected to be moderate as the ANSD, the key
implementing agency, is well-established and recognized as the leader in statistical
development. Its capacity and governance should not pose a problem. The only moderate risks
are i) competition from other donor requests; and ii) sustainability. However, the Thematic
Group to finance NSDS implementation has been established and endorsed this project proposal,
and continued monitoring of ANSD through this thematic group should ensure that the project
receives priority attention.
15
Risk Ratings Summary Table
Stakeholder Risk Risk Rating Mitigation measures
Implementing Agency Risk
- Capacity Low - ANSD’s statistical capacity is sufficient
to implement the NSDS: (i) ANSD
benefits from the statistics school
(ENSAE) which trains statisticians at 3
levels, around 20 students every year, and
many of them are hired by ANSD; (ii)
since ANSD is an autonomous agency,
the salary scale offered to staff is
attractive and allows the experienced staff
to stay.
- ANSD’s experience in implementing
large donor projects, including some
funded by the World Bank, has
significantly improved its implementation
capacity.
- Governance Low ANSD is a well-established agency that
has successfully implemented several
large projects.
Project Risk
- Design Low Project activities are fully part of the
NSDS implementation plan and are
included in the work program of ANDS
Units.
- Social and Environmental Low There are no potential social and
environmental safeguard risks triggered
by this project. On the contrary, the
project will help improve understanding
of social and environmental issues.
- Program and Donor Medium Several donors are involved in the
financing of the NSDS but predictability
of the funds is still weak. The key risk is
the degree of priority ANSD will give to
project activities if they are in
competition with others. This concern
may be mitigated by the involvement of
the development partners’ group,
« Thematic Group to finance NSDS
16
implementation », chaired by AfDB and
UNFPA, whose main role is to coordinate
donors’ efforts in supporting Senegal’s
statistical development. This group has
endorsed the SFR-CF request.
- Delivery Monitoring and
Sustainability
Medium Project activities will be implemented by
4 different units within ANSD at different
speeds. A monitoring group including
donors and users of statistics will be
established at ANSD. This kind of group
proved useful in the past, particularly
during the implementation of the last two
household surveys (ESPS II and DHS V).
Overall Implementation Risk Medium
17
V. APPRAISAL SUMMARY
A. Economic and Financial Analyses
29. The economic benefits from the project will derive from better data, especially in
employment, construction, services, tourism and environment, which are expected to result
in better decisions and improved governance and accountability in Senegal. First,
improvements in the efficiency of statistical operations and agencies will result in broader
coverage and higher-quality data. Second, better data will enhance the potential for evidence-
based decision making, at policy, program and project levels. This will reduce the costs of poor
decisions made on the basis of missing or inaccurate data. Third, more accessible data will
promote better monitoring of the results of public policies. The public goods nature of the
program output does not lend itself to conventional economic cost-benefit analysis. The project
is not amenable to financial analysis because national statistical producers have very limited
opportunities to recover the cost of data collection and analysis. National statistics are generally
considered public goods and are generally financed from Government revenue. However,
program outcomes are expected to promote improved allocation of resources by enhancing the
monitoring of the impact of Government spending by providing more accurate information on
economic activity to the public at large.
B. Financial Management
30. The Statistical Agency (ANSD) is the implementing agency of this Grant. An
assessment of the FM capacity of the ANSD was conducted in accordance with the Bank’s
requirements under OP/BP 10.00 and the FM Manual. The financial management risk is
rated as moderate provided that ANSD recruit an accountant for the bookkeeping of financial
transactions and the preparation of interim financial reports. The ANSD is familiar with donors
procedures and is handling similar projects funded by other donors (AFRISTAT, AfDB, ACDI
etc); ANSD has recently implemented the Support to SDS implementation and training project
funded by the World Bank closed on December 31 2013, and the external auditor issued an
unqualified opinion (clear opinion) on the 2012 financial statements. The interim un-audited
financial reports for the closed project have been submitted on time and the quality of the reports
was satisfactory. The existing “multi projects” computerized accounting system will be
customized to fit project needs and generate required information and financial statements.
However, to perform accounting tasks for this project, ANSD needs to recruit a qualified
accountant satisfactory to the Bank, prior to the implementation of activities. With regard to the
internal control, the project will comply with the requirements set out in the FM procedures
manual. The existing manual will be amended to cover all existing internal control improvement
issues such as bank disbursement procedures.
The system will include the following:
a) Recording of all financial transactions, including receipts and expenses, and maintained on a
simple cash book;
b) Recording assets and liabilities;
c) Simple internal control arrangements to ensure that every transaction is duly authorized and
properly recorded, and assets are safeguarded;
18
d) The ability to produce periodic financial information (Interim Financial Report), including
year-to-date and cumulative project fund inflows, expenditures by disbursement category and
by component, and closing cash and bank balances accompanied by a brief description of
deliverables;
e) Appropriate staffing to carry out the above functions.
- Disbursement
Disbursements under the Grant would be transactions based. Direct Payment and SOE
(Statement of Expenditures) methods and special commitments will apply as appropriate.
The designated account (DA) will be located in a commercial Bank. The DA would be managed
by DI (Direction des Investissements), which is an entity of the Ministry of Economy and
Finance in charge of managing the designated accounts in Senegal, in coordination with the
ANSD. The DA will be managed according to the disbursement procedures described in the
Disbursement Letter. The allocation of the DA will cover approximately four months
expenditures. The minimum value of direct payment and special commitment is 20 percent of
outstanding advance made to the DA. The DA would be replenished through the submission of
Withdrawal Applications on a monthly basis and would include bank reconciliation statements
and other documents as may be required. All supporting documentation must be easily accessible
and kept at an appropriate place for control and audit purposes.
- Audit
The Grant Agreement will require the submission of two Audits of Financial Statements for the
project to IDA. An external auditor with qualification and experience satisfactory to the World
Bank will be appointed to conduct audits of the project’s financial statements within six months
after the end of the fiscal year of implementation of the Project and after the Closing Date. A
single opinion on the Audited Project Financial Statements in compliance with International
Federation of Accountant (IFAC) guidelines will be required. The external auditors will prepare
a Management Letter giving observations and comments, and providing recommendations for
improvements in accounting records, systems, controls and compliance with financial covenants
in the grant Agreement.
C. Procurement
31. Senegal’s general procurement context has a major legislation and institutional
framework in place, which includes: (i) Decree N° 2011-1048 of July 27, 2011 related to the
public procurement code: (ii) the decree establishing the regulatory body, Public Procurement
Regulation Agency (PPRA); (iii) the adoption of national standard bidding documents (SBDS),
code of conduct; and (iv) a standard user guide manual. All this documentation is published on
the PPRA website (http://www.marchespublics.sn/). The decree also establishes the supervisory
bodies, a priori and a posteriori, to carry out annual assessments based on a sample. In addition,
many training sessions have been organized on different procurement aspects, such as: (a)
strengthening procurement capacity and addressing deficiencies identified during
implementation; (b) maintaining the program of integrating procurement into the PFM system
and; (c) enforcing data collection and sustainable information dissemination systems.
The draft procurement plan for the first 18 months of the project was carefully reviewed at
appraisal.
19
D. Safeguard Policies
32. No safeguard policies are triggered by this project. The project will have no adverse
impact on the environment, since it will not fund any environmentally sensitive activities, such
as construction activities, which could harm the environment and therefore require mitigation
measures. It is rated ‘C’ for no adverse environmental impact. Indirectly, the project could have
a positive impact on environment through support for generation of environment statistics that
could be used to improve the country’s environmental management.
Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No
Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) [ ] [X ]
Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) [ ] [X ]
Pest Management (OP 4.09) [ ] [X ]
Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) [ ] [ X]
Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) [ ] [X ]
Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) [ ] [ X]
Forests (OP/BP 4.36) [ ] [X ]
Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) [ ] [X ]
Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) [ ] [ X]
Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60)* [ ] [ X]
* By supporting the proposed project, the Bank does not intend to prejudice the final determination of the parties'
claims on the disputed areas.
20
Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring
SENEGAL: Statistics for Results Project
Project Development Objective (PDO): To better inform public and private sector decision-makers by filling gaps in the statistical knowledge base in the areas of employment,
tourism, construction and services, as identified in the NSDS, as well as build capacity for the production and dissemination of reliable and relevant data.
PDO Level Results Indicators*
Co
re
Unit of
Measure Baseline
Cumulative Target Values** Frequency Data Source/
Methodology
Responsibility
for Data
Collection Description
YR 1 YR 2 YR3
User satisfaction with project
outputs:
Average
% across
4 data sets
ND baseline survey
conducted
75% 80%
Annual
User
satisfaction
survey
ANSD
Share of women graduating
from ENSAE
% 12% 12% 12% 15% Annual ENSAE ENSAE NA
INTERMEDIATE RESULTS
Intermediate Result (Component One): Production of Statistics
Intermediate Result (Sub-component One): Service Production Price Index
Methodology adapted Paper NA Available NA ANSD ANSD NA
Sample of providers and services Data Base NA Available NA ANSD ANSD NA
Service Production Price Index
SPPI Index NA Test Year
Final ESPPI
available Annual ANSD ANSD See AFRISTAT
Intermediate Result (Sub - component Two): Construction Cost statistics
Methodology Paper NA Available NA ANSD ANSD NA
Baselines survey results Data Base NA Available NA ANSD ANSD NA
Construction Cost Index (CCI) Index NA CCI available
(Pilot Year)
Final CCI
available Annual ANSD ANSD See AFRISTAT
Intermediate Result (Sub-component Three): Employment and labor market conditions Statistics
Annual survey (SNES) pilot Data Base NA Conducted NA ANSD ANSD NA
21
PDO Level Results Indicators*
Co
re
Unit of
Measure Baseline
Cumulative Target Values** Frequency Data Source/
Methodology
Responsibility
for Data
Collection Description
YR 1 YR 2 YR3
SNES Pilot Survey data Data Base NA Available Pilot ANSD ANSD NA
Data on employment Data Base
& Index NA
Bi-monthly data
available (Pilot)
Quarterly
data available Quarterly ANSD ANSD NA
Intermediate Result (Sub-component Four): Tourism Satellite Account
Tourism Satellite Account Data base NA Draft version TSA available
TSA included in
National
Accounts
Annual
Ministry of
Tourism and
Air Transport
Ministry of
Tourism and
Air Transport
NA
Intermediate Result (Component two): ENSAE–Senegal & Training ANSD
Students fluent in English (Level
3) NA NA
Laboratory
installed 15% 30% Annual ENSAE ENSAE NA
Number of women statisticians
enrolled in ENSAE Number 12% 12% 15% 18% Annual ENSAE ENSAE NA
Number of trainers trained Number NA 5 5 5 Annual ENSAE ENSAE NA
22
Annex 2: Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures
Risk Risk Mitigating Measures Incorporated into
Project Design
Residual
Risk/
(Risk)
rating
Inherent risk M
Country level
Country: Poor governance
PFM system is weakened mainly by
(i) extra-budgetary operations; (ii)
weak oversight of public sector
entities and agencies; (iii)
difficulties in the interfacing
between or integrating the various
financial management information
systems, i.e. Revenues (GAINDE
for Customs, SIGTAS for Tax),
Expenditures (SGFIP), and
Accounting (ASTER)
Remedial measures are being taken to address
the weaknesses of the budget execution
procedures, accounting system, and internal and
external controls through the ongoing PFM TA.
The law on the autonomous agencies adopted in
2009 triggered several initiatives to improve the
financial oversight and transparency of the
agencies.
S
Entity level
Mismanagement of project assets
and deviations in the use of funds
M
Project level
L
Control Risk M
Budgeting The Grant activities are defined with a detailed
budget table. The project will prepare quarterly
budget variances reports and explain the
deviations.
M
Accounting
Accounting arrangements may not
be adequate for the project
execution.
The existing “multi projects” accounting
software will be customized to generate useful
financial information.
A qualified accountant will be recruited to
handle the project accounting tasks
S
23
Internal Controls
Weak internal audit
The existing manual of procedures defines
clearly FM procedures.
The FM manual will be up dated to take into
account disbursement procedures.
M
Flow of Funds
Funds may be diverted or used for
non-project eligible purposes.
A Designated Account into which funds will be
deposited will be opened. Monthly
replenishment will be required accompanied by
the relevant supporting documents.
Incompatible duties will be appropriately
segregated to ensure adequate internal controls.
M
Financial Reporting and Monitoring
Delays in the submission of agreed
IFRs and annual project financial
statements
Appropriate format for Interim Financial
Reports will be designed.
M
External Auditing
Delay in the submission of annual
audited financial statements.
Recruitment of qualified, experienced and
independent external auditors.
M
H – High S - Substantial M – Moderate L – Low
24
Annex 3: Detailed Project Description
1. The project supports the Government of Senegal’s (GoS) National Strategy for
Development of Statistics (NSDS), which was elaborated for the 2008-2013 period and approved
by the Government in June 2007. Project design is based on the NSDS Action Plan which was
developed in close consultation with development partners and validated in March 2011 by the
National Statistics Council (NSC), the highest level of coordination body of the SNS.
2. The current NSDS is based on four program areas: (1) strengthening the institutional
structure of the NSS; (2) improvement of the quality of statistical products; (3) improvement in
the dissemination of statistics and promotion of their use; and (4) capacity building to ensure the
efficiency of the SNS.
Project components
3. The project has three components. The selection of the components was made taking into
account the priorities of the National Strategy for Economic and Social Development (SNDES)
and of the NSDS. They are in conformity with the Government’s NSDS, and are designed to
support the implementation of the four NSDS programs, in particular the production and
dissemination of reliable and relevant data.
Component 1 –Production of Statistics
4. Services Production Price Index: This first sub-component will support a number of
activities to support the measurement of industrial production prices index. In Senegal, the
service sector is the main job and income provider, representing more than half of gross domestic
product (GDP). However, these aggregates are not adequately measured, despite their
importance in the economy. Apart from prices collected in the Consumption Price Index, there is
no other way of collecting prices of services at the production level. The Service Production
Price Index (SPPI) is designed to track price movements that reflect the conditions of supply and
demand in markets for services, and to facilitate the analysis of macroeconomic conditions and
monitoring of inflationary pressures. It is also a main input to the elaboration of the national
accounts. AFRISTAT has already developed a methodology to develop this index and Senegal
is working to adapt and implement it.
5. The following activities will be implemented in order to elaborate the production of this
indicator:
Elaboration of a methodology adhering to international standards and customized to the
national context, based on NAEMA (Nomenclature des Activités des Etats Membres
d’AFRISTAT), to identify services and service providers that will be subject to the price
collection index.
Study trip to a country already producing the SPPI to build capacity of experts in charge
of the production of the index.
Baseline survey to define the weighting structure of the SPPI and the selection of the
service producers who will constitute the sampling.
One year test period to improve the effectiveness of the process.
25
6. The expected results are:
The availability of a methodology in conformity with international standards and
customized to the national context for the elaboration of the ESSPI.
The availability of a sample of services and providers.
The implementation of an effective ESPPI production mechanism at the end of a one year
test period.
7. Construction Costs Statistics: This second sub-component will support the
implementation of a Construction Costs Index (CCI). In Senegal, the construction sector
represented about 3.9% of the GDP in 2010. The production of construction price statistics is
mainly limited to the collection and production of price statistics of specific construction
materials. However, total construction costs include the price of materials, labor costs and other
charges, such as taxes. In order to offset this deficiency, AFRISTAT has developed a guide for
the elaboration of the Construction Costs Index. ANSD is now working to adapt this
methodology. The CCI concerns mainly the construction of houses, but it can be adapted to other
Buildings and Public Works. The implementation of major construction of housing and
infrastructure programs highlights the urgent need for monitoring indicators of construction costs
so as to track allocation mechanisms and price revisions of public and private markets. These
indicators are also useful to define a housing and social infrastructure policy.
8. The following activities will be carried out to elaborate the production of the CCI:
Identification and description of all construction products.
Baseline survey to elaborate the weighting structure of several indexes (labor costs,
construction material prices, construction management costs), and to define a sampling of
products, producers and sellers.
Implementation of an effective CCI production mechanism after a one year test period.
9. Employment and labor market conditions Statistics: This third sub-component will
support the production of statistics on employment and labor market conditions, essential
information for assessing the impact of policies, projects, development programs and poverty
reduction included in the SNDES. To understand this poorly documented and multidimensional
reality, it appears crucial to examine the monitoring of employment conditions, living conditions
and disparities between demographic groups, so as to design employment policies addressing
these issues and fight against poverty. This need is accompanied by a growing demand for
standardized statistical indicators to ensure comparability among countries. For this reason, the
NSDS includes a multiyear action plan (2012-2014) for the implementation of Senegal National
Employment Surveys (SNES) to address this demand.
10. The main objective of this action plan is to put in place a measuring and monitoring
mechanism on employment in Senegal, through several SNES in order to establish a quarterly
monitoring system. The specific objectives are to:
measure unemployment and employment by identifying the most important sectors with
job creation activities;
26
analyze the labor market structure and the functioning of the labor market at large;
identify the demographic, educational and occupational qualifications of the labor force;
estimate informal sector employment statistics.
11. The SNES will be carried out at the national level. However, a bi-annual pilot survey will
be conducted first in Dakar. Household members older than 10-years old in the sampling
households will be surveyed. A first survey will be conducted during the first year of
implementation of the action plan. It will be the baseline survey for the monitoring process. Then
after the evaluation of the first survey, two bi-annual surveys will be carried out during the
second year, followed by four quarterly surveys the third year.
12. During the first year, the SNES will be combined with the Enquête sur la Transition vers
la Vie Active (ETVA) (Transition to Working Life Survey) of the International Labour
Organization (ILO). This survey will be called Enquête Nationale sur l’Emploi et la Transition
vers la Vie Active (ENETVA). It will be based on a sampling of 1800 households. During the
second year, the sampling will be reduced to 1200 households. These households will be derived
from the enumeration districts (ED), with 12 households per ED (18 for the first year). The
sampling will include three layers: Dakar, other cities and rural areas.
13. Tourism Satellite Account; This component will provide support to one sector to
improve their statistical development strategy and action plan that was recorded in the NSDS.
The selected sector, approved by the Technical Committee for Statistical Programs (TCSP), is
Tourism. Tourism is a key sector of the economy in Senegal and a multi-sector activity. It is a
social, cultural and economic phenomenon. The relationship of tourism with a great variety of
economic activities has fostered the interest in measuring its economic contribution, and in
assessing its interdependence with other social and economic activities. As a consequence,
Senegal included in its NSDS the elaboration of a Tourism Satellite Account (TSA).
14. The main objectives of the TSA are to analyze in detail all the aspects of demand for
goods and services associated with the activity of visitors; to observe the operational interface
with the supply of such goods and services within the economy; and to describe how this supply
interacts with other economic activities. The methodology used to the construction of the TSA
will include surveys on tourism demand, tourism supply and tourism expenditures. It should
permit greater internal consistency of tourism statistics with the rest of the National Statistical
System, as well as increased international comparability of these data.
15. The elaboration of the TSA will be carried out by the Ministry of Tourism and Air
Transport and the ANSD, in partnership with the Permanent Secretariat for the Accelerated
Growth Strategy, the Department for Forecasting and Economic Studies of the Ministry of
Economy and Finance, professional organizations and the West African States Central Bank. All
these structures will be grouped under the umbrella of a pilot and technical Committee that will
supervise the activities and validate the results.
27
Component 2 – ENSAE – Senegal and Training
16. This component will support the implementation of the strategic plan of the National
School of Statistics and Economic Analysis (ENSAE-Senegal). ENSEA-Senegal is a new
institution and is still under development. It was created in October 2008 and progressively
implemented its training programs, including basic and professional training. The release of its
first graduates was in July 2011. The school works in partnership with the ENSEA in Abidjan
and the ISSEA in Yaoundé, in the network of the African Statistics Schools. The main mission of
ENSAE-Senegal is to meet the demand for training, development and innovation by the national
statistical system and public and private companies. To achieve this, ENSAE-Senegal is in the
process of elaborating a strategic plan that will determine the major policies for its future
development, including development strategies for a five year period (2012 – 2016). The
development and implementation of this strategic plan is a priority for ENSAE –Senegal.
17. The strategic plan includes activities grouped in three different sub-components:
acquisition of equipment and educational investments (65%), capacity building of ENSAE staff
(28%); and studies (7%).
18. The first sub-component includes educational investments, such as English language
laboratory, books, internet publications and software. These educational tools will contribute to
the strengthening of the level of training courses. It will also provide a laptop to each female
student upon her registration, in order to promote the enrollment of women, and therefore, to
increase the number of women statisticians. It also includes communication tools to improve the
dissemination of ENSAE’s activities. The component will further support the acquisition of the
following equipment needed for the new location of the school (in the new ANSD building):
class and office furniture, IT equipment, reproduction equipment and one minibus.
19. Activities to be carried out in the second sub-component will include:
Study and research trips, as well as training of ENSAE staff, in order to strengthen
the capacity of the teachers and researchers of the school.
Workshop of the African Statistics Schools to reinforce their network and to ensure
high visibility of the schools’ graduates.
Teaching missions by foreign teachers to promote knowledge exchange and new
partnerships to ensure sustainability of these activities.
20. The third sub-component will support two consultancies: the first one to carry out a study
on the creation of a research unit at ENSAE and the second to computerize the school library
collection and create a web-based library.
Component 3 – Project coordination and monitoring and evaluation:
21. With the adoption of the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (SDS),
Senegal shifted its approach of developing statistics from a supply-driven to a demand-driven
management; it needs a tool to monitor the demand and feedbacks from users. The project will
develop methodologies to establish a permanent mechanism to measure the evolution of the
demand of statistics through an annual user satisfaction survey. The following activities will be
implemented in order to calculate the user satisfaction indicator:
28
Elaboration of a complete list of users of statistics by category of users;
Elaboration of a methodology adhering to international standards and customized to the
national context,
Baseline survey to identified new areas of improvement.
Specific questions related to the products of this project.
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