www.coford.ie. overview submitted kp (3.3) tables in april 2007 submitted kp (3.3) tables in april...
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Overview Overview Submitted KP (3.3) tables in April 2007Submitted KP (3.3) tables in April 2007
National systemNational systemDisaggregating of forest land areasDisaggregating of forest land areasHarvests (KP I(A1.2))Harvests (KP I(A1.2))Young age structure Young age structure Soils: LUC and historic dataSoils: LUC and historic data
LULUCF LULUCF KP KP
Total 697,750 ha (10 %) 252,000 KP a3.3 (36 %)
Young age structure Managed 50 % on peat land 40 % mixed forest
National Forest status National Forest status
28 % potentially thinned by end 2012But only 24 % of affor stands suitable for thinning are thinned
17,423 primary plots (LUC)~1800 permanent sample forest plots (400ha)
Detect national volume @ 95% conf.
National forest inventory (Approach 3)
Biomass PoolsBiomass Pools
(A) Gain loss method(A) Gain loss method Interpolation (annual) Interpolation (annual)
(B) Stock difference method(B) Stock difference method
Repeat inventory (2006 and 2012)Repeat inventory (2006 and 2012)
Time
C
1 5
A
B
But sum A B (t5 - t1)
Single tree modelsSingle tree modelscSITEbCOMPaSIZEy
cSITEbCOMPaSIZEy
y is DBH or H increment usually on a 5 year basis
1) SIZE is individual tree size and vigour (DBH or H)2) COMP is competitive effects
(status in relation to neighbouring trees)3) SITE (plot specific variables)
Calibrated using Coillte data (2943 plots, measured every 5 to 10 years)Hei ght _m
0
10
20
30
40
50
Hei ght _m
0 10 20 30 40
DBH growth (cm/year)
MO
DE
L
Coillte obs. data
Capturing harvests and Capturing harvests and deforestation (deforestation (CCLL))
NFI sample plotsNFI sample plots Coillte data from post harvest inventoriesCoillte data from post harvest inventories Private sector (felling licences)Private sector (felling licences)
NFIdata
Growthsimulator
Growthmodifier
Biomass pools
Harvestdisturbance
Largest uncertainty associated with management assumptionThinning effects
amount of timber harvested (immediate source)size distribution and growth competition
Disaggregating areasDisaggregating areas Increase uncertainty (area)Increase uncertainty (area)
Sub categories are not constant with timeSub categories are not constant with time Transparency v.s. uncertaintyTransparency v.s. uncertainty
Category Area (kHa) 95% confidence %CV Total 697 666 - 728 4 No harvest (KP1(A1.1) 255 240 - 270 6 Harvest (KP1(A1.2) 27 21 - 34 43
KP1(A1.2)KP1(A1.2) LULUCF reported net of harvestLULUCF reported net of harvest
National harvest volumeNational harvest volume KP 1 (A1.2) Harvested areasKP 1 (A1.2) Harvested areas
From NFI sub-sampleFrom NFI sub-sampleGives stand info (BA, vol/ha)Gives stand info (BA, vol/ha)How do we apply this to single tree modelHow do we apply this to single tree model
Effects assortmentEffects assortment Growth modifiers (competition)Growth modifiers (competition)
Assumptions on thinning typeAssumptions on thinning typePDF simulation to remove harvested treesPDF simulation to remove harvested treesIncrease uncertaintyIncrease uncertainty
Young forestsYoung forests 50 % KP forest DBH < 7cm50 % KP forest DBH < 7cm
Biomass algorithmsBiomass algorithmsNational researchNational research
Not all species research on goingNot all species research on going
Data base (e.g. E21)Data base (e.g. E21) Uncertainty not documented or well definedUncertainty not documented or well defined
Growth modelsGrowth modelsNo data < 5cm DBHNo data < 5cm DBHExtrapolateExtrapolate
May not be an issue after repeat inventory (post 2012)May not be an issue after repeat inventory (post 2012)
SoilsSoils
Soils 90% of forest C stockSoils 90% of forest C stock Soils at equilibrium min 20 years after LUCSoils at equilibrium min 20 years after LUC
i.e. steady state in older forestsi.e. steady state in older forests
Soil C stock changeSoil C stock change Soil typeSoil type
Peat emission factorPeat emission factor MineralMineral
Flu = Previous land useFlu = Previous land use FMG = ManagementFMG = Management
isc
isciscisciscisc AFiFMGFluSOCREFSOC,,
,,,,,,,,,, )(
drainagedrainedFForganic EFAC
GIS sources
Soil type
ProductivityTopography
Climate
LUPSIFORISCORINE
Soil C forLULUCF
CARBWARE
Soil C changefactors
Research
Ref C stocks for:
Mineral SoilsMineral Soils
ForestCForestCMichael Wellock, Christina LaPerle, and Ger KielyMichael Wellock, Christina LaPerle, and Ger Kiely
ForestForest C %C %
OrganicOrganic
0-10 cm0-10 cm 28.328.3
10-2010-20 30.830.8
MineralMineral
0-10 cm0-10 cm 6.46.4
10-2010-20 3.93.9
20-3020-30 3.73.7
PairPair C%C%
OrganicOrganic
0-10 cm0-10 cm 13.513.5
10-2010-20 11.811.8
MineralMineral
0-10 cm0-10 cm 4.54.5
10-2010-20 3.73.7
20-3020-30 3.43.4Forest Pair
Site: Millstreet, Co. Cork
Preliminary results suggest podzols CSOM ~ 0.86 t C/Ha/yr
Detecting LUCDetecting LUC NFI (18000 plots re-sampled in 2012?)NFI (18000 plots re-sampled in 2012?) CORINE currently used for LULUCF (other land uses and conversions)CORINE currently used for LULUCF (other land uses and conversions)
Only way to track long tern LUC (1990-base year)Only way to track long tern LUC (1990-base year) Poor resolution for forest lands (Resolution 25 ha)Poor resolution for forest lands (Resolution 25 ha)
63 % of afforested parcels less than 25 ha in size 63 % of afforested parcels less than 25 ha in size Over estimation of afforestation on peat soils Over estimation of afforestation on peat soils
CORINE 80%CORINE 80% High resolution data (iFORIS and NFI) 40 %High resolution data (iFORIS and NFI) 40 %
Black, O’Brien, Twomey, Redmond, Barret, in press)
GMES CORINE 2006 (1ha)GMES CORINE 2006 (1ha)
But misclassification issuesBut misclassification issuesBased on comparison with GIS land cover Based on comparison with GIS land cover
cover national datacover national data30 % mismatch 30 % mismatch
IFS grid code IFS land cover classification Area ha
%
IFS peatland cover intersected with CORINE peat land 796,386 69.5 Other IFS land cover intersecting with CORINE peatland 349,789 30.5 7,8 Grassland 198,184 18 8 Scrub 19,264 1.7 12 Rocky complex (limestone) 76,503 6.7
Assimilation of LULUCF dataAssimilation of LULUCF data Forest land remaining forest is not a good proxy for Art 3.4Forest land remaining forest is not a good proxy for Art 3.4 Land converted to forest not a good proxy for Art 3.3Land converted to forest not a good proxy for Art 3.3
Due to the 20 year transition and fluctuation afforested areasDue to the 20 year transition and fluctuation afforested areas
2008 to 2012KP 3.3 and F-L (+16 % difference)KP 3.4 and F-F (-16 %)
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