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“Confronting the Human Dilemma”

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) – a U.N. sponsored assessment of the state of the planetAgriculture: the “largest

threat to biodiversity and ecosystem function of any single human activity.”

Upland rice field in Indonesia

• Soil - 11-13,000 BP

• Forest - 5,000 BP

• Coal - 250 BP

• Natural gas - 1815

• Oil - 1859

The Five Pools of Energy-Rich Carbon

(Tilman et al., 2002)

Silent Spring

(Tilman et al., 2002)

Silent Spring

Production

Sales

• Ecosphere — Whole Earth

• Ecosystem — Prairie, Rainforest, etc.

• Organisms — Humans, Dogs, etc.

• Organs — Liver, Heart, etc.

• Tissues — Muscle,

• Cells —

• Molecules — DNA, Protein

• Atoms — Carbon, Nitrogen, etc.

Breeding Perennial Grains

Perennial WheatPerennial Wheat

September, 2005: Field trial of 1000 intermediate wheatgrass plants divided into 3 clonal replicates each

annual

Sept Dec March June

12 mos 21 mos

Annual wheat (on left in each panel) and Perennial wheatgrass

Sorghum bicolor, 2n = 20

Sorghum halepense, 2n = 40

X

Grain sorghum Perennial sorghum

F2 population from a perennial F1

Grain sorghum

X

Helianthus annuus H. maximiliani

Variation in plant form in recurrent selection populations of Kansas rosinseed

Perennial sunflower domestication program:

early June early July

Annual

Perennial

Perennial grain cropsIntermediate wheatgrass &

perennial wheat

perennial sorghum

perennial sunflowers

perennial maize

perennial legumes

perennial rice

Perennial Rice

Yunnan Province,

People’s Republic of China

Washington State University

The Land Institute

University of Manitoba

Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences

CSIRO, Charles Sturt Univ., NSW Dep’t of Primary Industries

World perennial grain research

Michigan State University

Texas A&M University

University of Minnesota

University of Georgia

Cornell University

Perennial wheat

Agri-Food Canada

Perennial rice

Perennial sorghum

Perennial rye

Perennial maize

Multiple crops including new domestication of perennials

Nepal Agriculture Research Council

• Ecosphere — Whole Earth

• Ecosystem — Prairie, Rainforest, etc.

• Organisms — Humans, Dogs, etc.

• Organs — Liver, Heart, etc.

• Tissues — Muscle,

• Cells —

• Molecules — DNA, Protein

• Atoms — Carbon, Nitrogen, etc.

Five-year farm bills:

Exports Commodities Subsidies Some soil

conservation measures

Food programs

50-Year Farm Bill:

• Protect soil from erosion• Cut fossil fuel

dependence to zero• Sequester carbon• Reduce toxics in soil and

water• Manage nitrogen carefully• Reduce dead zones• Cut wasteful water use• Preserve or rebuild farm

communities

2000 Distribution of Global Agricultural Acres

A Different PlanetGlobal Cropland Distribution

Monfreda et al. 2008

Roots and tubers4%

Fiber3%

Tree crops2%

Other3%

Sugar crops2%

Fruits & vegetables7%

Forages11%

Cereals, oil seeds & pulses

68%

Land Institute Estimate of Yearly Costs for Perennial Grain Research Estimated Number of Ph.D level Scientists necessary for Perennial

Crops Research Centers Plant Breeding &

Genetics (includes molecular genetics)

Agronomy/ Ecology

Rice IRRI Yunnan AAS Africa Rice Center

Philippines China

pan-Africa

3 1 1

3

Wheats The Land Institute Washington State Univ Univ. of Manitoba CSIRO Michigan State CIMMYT

Canada Australia

Mexico, Turkey, +

1 1 1 2 1 2

1

Corn North Carolina State Cornell Univ. CIMMYT

Mexico

1 1 2

1

Sorghum The Land Institute Texas A&M Univ. of Georgia ICRISAT

India & Africa

1 1 1 2

2

Pigeon Pea

Michigan State Univ. Univ. of Malawi ICRISAT

India Africa

India & Africa

1 1 1

2

Other Legumes

The Land Institute CIAT Yunnan AAS

Colombia

China

1 2 1

2

Oilseed Crops

The Land Institute Univ. of Minnesota USDA-Fargo Univ. of Manitoba Yunnan AAS

Canada China

1 1 1 1 1

1

Soybean Australia? China?

1 1

2

36 14

32 + 14 = 50 @ $300,000/year (includes support staff) = $15,000,000 Overhead at 15% for the various institutions = __2,250,000 Initial 30 year program $17,250,000/year

##########

Assume that rice, the wheats and other small grains, corn and sorghum are all being developed to be grown with legumes as a nitrogen, as well as producing grain. Also assume that oil seed crops are grown with mixtures where appropriate.

Conclusion:

Production at the expense of conservation

OR

Conservation at the expense of production.

Conclusion:

Conservation as the consequence of production

is possible

• Ecosphere — Whole Earth

• Ecosystem — Prairie, Rainforest, etc.

• Organisms — Humans, Dogs, etc.

• Organs — Liver, Heart, etc.

• Tissues — Muscle,

• Cells —

• Molecules — DNA, Protein

• Atoms — Carbon, Nitrogen, etc.

Past Present Future

8,000 BCE

Hunting &

Gathering

Industrial Agriculture

Natural System

Natural System

Traditional

Agriculture

Natural System

Conventional &

“Sustainable”

Agriculture

?

Overlap of Natural & Agricultural Ecosystems

Pre-Industrial Agricultur

e

Past Present Future

8,000 BCE

Hunting &

Gathering

Industrial Agriculture

Natural System

Natural System

Traditional

Agriculture

Natural System

Conventional &

“Sustainable”

Agriculture

?

Overlap of Natural & Agricultural Ecosystems

Pre-Industrial Agricultur

e

Past Present Future

8,000 BCE

Hunting &

Gathering

Industrial Agriculture

Natural Systems

Agriculture

2050

Natural System

Natural System

Traditional

Agriculture

Natural System

Conventional &

“Sustainable”

Agriculture

Natural Systems

Agriculture

Overlap of Natural & Agricultural Ecosystems

Pre-Industrial Agricultur

e

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