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“Confronting the Human Dilemma”
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) – a U.N. sponsored assessment of the state of the planetAgriculture: the “largest
threat to biodiversity and ecosystem function of any single human activity.”
Upland rice field in Indonesia
• Soil - 11-13,000 BP
• Forest - 5,000 BP
• Coal - 250 BP
• Natural gas - 1815
• Oil - 1859
The Five Pools of Energy-Rich Carbon
(Tilman et al., 2002)
Silent Spring
(Tilman et al., 2002)
Silent Spring
Production
Sales
• Ecosphere — Whole Earth
• Ecosystem — Prairie, Rainforest, etc.
• Organisms — Humans, Dogs, etc.
• Organs — Liver, Heart, etc.
• Tissues — Muscle,
• Cells —
• Molecules — DNA, Protein
• Atoms — Carbon, Nitrogen, etc.
Breeding Perennial Grains
Perennial WheatPerennial Wheat
September, 2005: Field trial of 1000 intermediate wheatgrass plants divided into 3 clonal replicates each
annual
Sept Dec March June
12 mos 21 mos
Annual wheat (on left in each panel) and Perennial wheatgrass
Sorghum bicolor, 2n = 20
Sorghum halepense, 2n = 40
X
Grain sorghum Perennial sorghum
F2 population from a perennial F1
Grain sorghum
X
Helianthus annuus H. maximiliani
Variation in plant form in recurrent selection populations of Kansas rosinseed
Perennial sunflower domestication program:
early June early July
Annual
Perennial
Perennial grain cropsIntermediate wheatgrass &
perennial wheat
perennial sorghum
perennial sunflowers
perennial maize
perennial legumes
perennial rice
Perennial Rice
Yunnan Province,
People’s Republic of China
Washington State University
The Land Institute
University of Manitoba
Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences
CSIRO, Charles Sturt Univ., NSW Dep’t of Primary Industries
World perennial grain research
Michigan State University
Texas A&M University
University of Minnesota
University of Georgia
Cornell University
Perennial wheat
Agri-Food Canada
Perennial rice
Perennial sorghum
Perennial rye
Perennial maize
Multiple crops including new domestication of perennials
Nepal Agriculture Research Council
• Ecosphere — Whole Earth
• Ecosystem — Prairie, Rainforest, etc.
• Organisms — Humans, Dogs, etc.
• Organs — Liver, Heart, etc.
• Tissues — Muscle,
• Cells —
• Molecules — DNA, Protein
• Atoms — Carbon, Nitrogen, etc.
Five-year farm bills:
Exports Commodities Subsidies Some soil
conservation measures
Food programs
50-Year Farm Bill:
• Protect soil from erosion• Cut fossil fuel
dependence to zero• Sequester carbon• Reduce toxics in soil and
water• Manage nitrogen carefully• Reduce dead zones• Cut wasteful water use• Preserve or rebuild farm
communities
2000 Distribution of Global Agricultural Acres
A Different PlanetGlobal Cropland Distribution
Monfreda et al. 2008
Roots and tubers4%
Fiber3%
Tree crops2%
Other3%
Sugar crops2%
Fruits & vegetables7%
Forages11%
Cereals, oil seeds & pulses
68%
Land Institute Estimate of Yearly Costs for Perennial Grain Research Estimated Number of Ph.D level Scientists necessary for Perennial
Crops Research Centers Plant Breeding &
Genetics (includes molecular genetics)
Agronomy/ Ecology
Rice IRRI Yunnan AAS Africa Rice Center
Philippines China
pan-Africa
3 1 1
3
Wheats The Land Institute Washington State Univ Univ. of Manitoba CSIRO Michigan State CIMMYT
Canada Australia
Mexico, Turkey, +
1 1 1 2 1 2
1
Corn North Carolina State Cornell Univ. CIMMYT
Mexico
1 1 2
1
Sorghum The Land Institute Texas A&M Univ. of Georgia ICRISAT
India & Africa
1 1 1 2
2
Pigeon Pea
Michigan State Univ. Univ. of Malawi ICRISAT
India Africa
India & Africa
1 1 1
2
Other Legumes
The Land Institute CIAT Yunnan AAS
Colombia
China
1 2 1
2
Oilseed Crops
The Land Institute Univ. of Minnesota USDA-Fargo Univ. of Manitoba Yunnan AAS
Canada China
1 1 1 1 1
1
Soybean Australia? China?
1 1
2
36 14
32 + 14 = 50 @ $300,000/year (includes support staff) = $15,000,000 Overhead at 15% for the various institutions = __2,250,000 Initial 30 year program $17,250,000/year
##########
Assume that rice, the wheats and other small grains, corn and sorghum are all being developed to be grown with legumes as a nitrogen, as well as producing grain. Also assume that oil seed crops are grown with mixtures where appropriate.
Conclusion:
Production at the expense of conservation
OR
Conservation at the expense of production.
Conclusion:
Conservation as the consequence of production
is possible
• Ecosphere — Whole Earth
• Ecosystem — Prairie, Rainforest, etc.
• Organisms — Humans, Dogs, etc.
• Organs — Liver, Heart, etc.
• Tissues — Muscle,
• Cells —
• Molecules — DNA, Protein
• Atoms — Carbon, Nitrogen, etc.
Past Present Future
8,000 BCE
Hunting &
Gathering
Industrial Agriculture
Natural System
Natural System
Traditional
Agriculture
Natural System
Conventional &
“Sustainable”
Agriculture
?
Overlap of Natural & Agricultural Ecosystems
Pre-Industrial Agricultur
e
Past Present Future
8,000 BCE
Hunting &
Gathering
Industrial Agriculture
Natural System
Natural System
Traditional
Agriculture
Natural System
Conventional &
“Sustainable”
Agriculture
?
Overlap of Natural & Agricultural Ecosystems
Pre-Industrial Agricultur
e
Past Present Future
8,000 BCE
Hunting &
Gathering
Industrial Agriculture
Natural Systems
Agriculture
2050
Natural System
Natural System
Traditional
Agriculture
Natural System
Conventional &
“Sustainable”
Agriculture
Natural Systems
Agriculture
Overlap of Natural & Agricultural Ecosystems
Pre-Industrial Agricultur
e
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