www.tjped.com 434.979.5610 harvey@tjped.com economic challenges in the greater charlottesville...
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www.tjped.com434.979.5610
harvey@tjped.com
Economic Challenges in the Greater Charlottesville Region
www.tjped.com434.979.5610
harvey@tjped.com
DISCUSSION TOPICS• Is underemployment really an issue?
• Is Charlottesville immune from recession?
• Are we losing our middle class?
• What’s behind the chronic unemployment and poverty in the African-American community?
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harvey@tjped.com
ISSUE 1Is Underemployment Really an Issue?
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Many Residents Leave the Region for Work…WIA 6 Commuting to Work (2000 Census)
NOVA
RIC
FB
VAL
(~ 22,200)
(~ 2,800)
(~ 4,700)
(~ 1,900)
LYN(~ 1,100)
• ~ 32,000 residents work outside of the region.• Greater Charlottesville is a net importer• ~10,500 go out, ~12,000 come in• Who are they and why do they leave?
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Educational Attainment vs. Employment(US Census Educational Attainment; US Department of Labor Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages)
TJPDC Albemarle C’ville Virginia
Labor Demand (Jobs) Low Skill 52.60% 51.30% 52.40% 55.30%Medium Skill 22.70% 18.80% 28.00% 21.80%High Skill 24.70% 29.90% 19.60% 22.80% Labor Supply (Residents) Low Skill 40.20% 31.60% 29.70% 44.20%Medium Skill 26.50% 21.30% 39.40% 27.30%High Skill 33.30% 47.10% 30.90% 28.60% Underemployed Low Skill -12.40% -19.70% -22.70% -11.20%Medium Skill 3.80% 2.50% 11.40% 5.40%High Skill 8.50% 17.20% 11.30% 5.80%
www.tjped.com434.979.5610
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ISSUE 1Is Underemployment Really an Issue?
Anecdotal evidence is pointing in that direction. It warrants a more in-depth look.
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ISSUE 2Is Charlottesville Immune from Recession?
Are we Losing our Middle Class?
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Unemployment in Greater CharlottesvilleTJPDC Unemployment, 1990-2009 vs. VA and US (VA Employment Commission)
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Greater Charlottesville Employee Growth by Industry Q1 1990 - Q1 2009(US Department of Labor, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages)
(L8 - 12) $430.00
(L14 – 16) $911.40
(12 – 14) $930.49
(L14 – 20) $1,280.21
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Greater Charlottesville - Industry by Occupation(Q1 1990 US Department of Labor Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages - Employees (n = 75,692)
29.1%
9.6%
34.2%
27.1%
(L8 - 12) $19,784
(L14 – 16) $39,345
(12 – 14) $37,361
(L14 – 20) $42,639
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Greater Charlottesville - Industry by Occupation(Q1 2009 US Department of Labor Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages - Employees (n = 100,971)
29%
10%
34%
27%
29.7%
12.8%
40.7%16.8%
(L8 - 12) $22,630 – UP 0.73%
(L14 – 16) $47,393 – UP 1.05%
(12 – 14) $44,385 – UP 0.94%
(L14 – 20) $66,571 – UP 2.94%
Q1 2009 (Average Wage $42,588)
*Q1 1990-Q1 2009 Annual Employment Growth 1.73%*Q1 1990-Q1 2009 Annual Wage Growth 1.42%
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Unemployment in the Culpeper RegionRRPDC Unemployment, 1990-2009 vs. VA and US (VA Employment Commission)
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Culpeper Employee Growth by Industry Q1 1990 – Q1 2009(US Department of Labor, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages)
(L8 - 12) $435.32
(L14 – 16) $678.90
(12 – 14) $801.35
(L14 – 20) $1,087.70
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Culpeper Industry by Occupation(Q1 1990 US DOL Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages - Employees (n = 33,701)
Q1 1990 (Average Wage $30,854)
36.2%
9.3%
27.1%
27.1%
(L8 - 12) $20,654
(L14 – 16) $34,077
(12 – 14) $33,577
(L14 – 20) $40,600
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Culpeper Industry by Occupation(Q1 1990 US DOL Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages - Employees (n = 47,976)
27.5%
9.5%
32.8%
30.2%
(L8 - 12) $22,637 – UP 9.6%
(L14 – 16) $35,303 – UP 3.5%
(12 – 14) $41,670 – UP 24%
(L14 – 20) $56,560 – UP 39%
Q1 2009 (Average Wage $35,204)
*Q1 1990-Q1 2009 Employment Growth 42%*Q1 1990-Q1 2009 Wage Growth 14%
www.tjped.com434.979.5610
harvey@tjped.com
ISSUE 2Is Charlottesville Immune from Recession?
Somewhat, but it’s increasingly coming at the expense of economic diversity.
Are we Losing our Middle Class?
There is some erosion, a trend that raises red flags.The real issue is the shift within the wage group and its affect on residents.
www.tjped.com434.979.5610
harvey@tjped.com
ISSUE 3Why do we have Chronic Unemployment and Poverty in the
African-American Community?
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Culpeper Industry by Occupation(Q1 1990 US DOL Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages - Employees (n = 47,976)
27.5%
9.5%
32.8%
30.2%
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Greater Charlottesville - Industry by Occupation(Q1 2009 US Department of Labor Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages - Employees (n = 100,971)
29%
10%
34%
27%
29.7%
12.8%
40.7%
16.8%
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12.8%
28.0%44.4%
14.7%
Albemarle County - Industry by Occupation(Q1 2009 US Department of Labor Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages - Employees (n = 48,454)
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City of Charlottesville(2008 US Department of Labor Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages - Employees (n = 35,024)
16.6%
32.6%
39.6%11.2%
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Unemployment TrendsVA Employment Commission - Charlottesville Unemployment, 1997-2009 by Education
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Education LevelsUS Census - City of Charlottesville Educational Attainment by Race, +25 years (n = 21,807)
Black White
No HS Diploma 34.5%
HS Diploma 37.2%
Some College 16.6%
PS Degree 11.7%
No HS Diploma 15.0%
HS Diploma 17.4%
Some College 15.0%
PS Degree 52.6%
No HS Diploma 39.3%
HS Diploma 37.2%
Some College 16.0%
PS Degree 7.5%
No HS Diploma 31.1%
HS Diploma 37.3%
Some College 17.0%
PS Degree 14.7%
Black Male Black Female
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Unemployment TrendsVA Employment Commission - Charlottesville Unemployment, 1997-2009 by Race
Population Estimates69.5% White22.2% Black 8.3% Other
Population Estimates69.5% White22.2% Black 8.3% Other
White UnemployedWhite Unemployed
Black Unemployed, Average 53% of Total; Range 39 – 66%Black Unemployed, Average 53% of Total; Range 39 – 66%
www.tjped.com434.979.5610
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ISSUE 3Why do we have Chronic Unemployment and Poverty in the
African-American Community?
The complexities of race always remain, but the crux of theproblem lies in poor educational attainment and an
increasing lack of opportunity.
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harvey@tjped.com
Policy Prescriptions & Ideas• A regional economic development strategy designed to recapture our resident labor force.
• Local public spending to match federal / private funds to transition dislocated and unqualified workers into demand occupations.
• Create a skilled trades renaissance by implementing changes in comp plans to include funding for infrastructure, business parks, spec buildings, training and incentives for desirable industry.
• Support individuals and organizations with the vision and leadership skills to achieve it.
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