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Strategies and Policy/Technology Instruments for Sustainable Land Use and Transport
- International Comparisons -
Yoshitsugu HayashiDirector, International Research Center for Sustainable Transport
and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan
Chair, Scientific Committee of WCTRS(World Conference on Transport Research Society)
THE PEP International Workshop in Moscow – Sustainable Development of Urban Transport: Challenges and Opportunities, 7-8 June 2012
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 1
PUTTING TRANSPORT INTO CLIMATE POLICY AGENDA
World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS)http://www.wctrs.org/
December 2011
URGENT!
There is an urgent need to involve transport as a major sector in the climate change negotiation. WCTRS could help UNFCCC and the IPCC to promote this process.
WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society)The WCTRS covers multi-modal, multi-disciplinary, and multi-sectoral fields. The members span almost all aspects of transportation research, planning, policy and management. The World Conferences held every 3 years mirror this breadth of interests. 67 countries are represented in the WCTRS, with more than 1,500 members.
President: Anthony May (University of Leeds, UK)Chair of Scientific Committee: Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Nagoya University, Japan)
WCTRS SIG11 (Special Interest Group11) - Transport and the Environment
The SIG11 aims at seeking ways to establish effective mechanisms for mitigating environmental degradation due to transport in the international domain. The following topics are researched: a) Comparing the emission of greenhouse gas and air pollution between countries and cities, b) Diagnosing transport system and its resulting global and local environmental degradation and prescribing countermeasure policies, and developing an evaluation system of their performance, c) Providing scientific instruments for evaluation of international mechanism for environmentally sustainable transport and the methods to collect the necessary financial resources.
Contact: Hayashi and Kato Laboratory, International Center for Sustainable
Transport and Cities (SUSTRAC), Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan
Address: 464-8603, C1-2, Nagoya, JapanTEL: +81-52-789-2773E-mail: tracc@genv.nagoya-u.ac.jpWebsite: http://www.sustrac.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp/en/
Global Environment Research Fund (S-6-5), Ministry of Environment, Japan
Graduate School of Environmental Studies & Global COE Program “From Earth Science to Basic and Clinical Environmental Studies”, Nagoya University, Japan
College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, China
Sponsored by:
Supported by:
- Recommendations from WCTRS to COP17 -
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 2
3
School boy waiting for a bus at 4:30 am in Suburb of Bangkok(1993)
Bangkok Post 4 Sept 1993
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
4
Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993)
Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd., Bangkok8hr+ Commuters > 10% (1993)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Bike Taxi in Bangkok
Photo by Hayashi (1993)
Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993)7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 5
Negative Spiral between Motorization and Urban Sprawl
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 6
Econ.Growth
Rise of Income
Increment of car ownership
Increment of car use
Urbanization
Expansion of urban area
Increment of VKT
Rising costs to supply
infrastructure
Excessive Traffic
demand
Insufficiency of Road
Traffic congestion
Obstacle to progress of economy
Econ.
Problems from local to global
Env.Level of Technology
Increment of energy
consumption
InsufficientPublic
Transport
Motorization
Urban Sprawl
Development of
InfrastructureBottleneck of Traffic
Sift to low-emission mode ( SHIFT )
Restraint of unnecessary demand ( AVOID )
Improvement of emission factor ( IMPROVE )
Car Ownership
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
GDP per Capita US$ (1995)
Cars
per
1,0
00 in
habi
tant
s
London
TokyoBangkok
Seoul
Hong kong
Singapore (CA)
‘95
‘95
‘90
‘90‘90
‘95‘00
‘85
‘85‘80
‘80
‘95
‘95‘00
‘70
‘60
Nagoya
Shanghai
‘95
‘02
Beijing
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 7
Moscow‘02
‘99
Road Infrastructure Supply vs. Motorization Level vs. Peak Hour Speed
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0246810
Bangkok
Tokyo
London
Nagoya
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Bangkok
Tokyo
London
Nagoya
1972
1986
1993
1971
1988
1972
1987
1993
1972
1988
1972
1986
1993
1972
1993
1971
1988
Road
length
per ca
r(m/ca
r)
Car ownership(car/1,000 inhabitants)Speed (min/km)
Shanghai
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 8
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 9
Motorization & Road Supply
7June2012
Decomposition of Urban Transport Emission
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 10
CAR OWNERSHIP
Urban area
TransportFrequency
Public TransportImprovement
FuelEconomy
Level ofcongestion
LEV diffuseDevelopment of Public Transport
Compact Development
Road Pricing
Regulation of Sprawl
Fuel TaxIT/ITS
Road Improvement
LEV Ratio
Concentration of urban activity
× ×
Trip Generation Degree of Car dependence Technical Level
Total Trip Length
year year
Emission Factor
year
Modal Share=
year
Emission
AVOID SHIFT IMPROVETotal
CUTEPolicy Matrix
7June2012
× ×
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 11
Innovating Transport SystemsCUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments)
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need totravel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modesImprove road
networkImprove vehicles
and fuels
Technology TODPedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure IMTS LEV
Alternative fuel
RegulationCompact
cityMix land
use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities TDM
Emission standardTop runner program
Information Teleworking
Car sharingAwareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-driveIT/ITS
IT / ITS
EconomyLocational Subsidy Fuel tax
Road pricing Rail/bus fare Road pricingLEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 12Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need totravel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modesImprove road
networkImprove vehicles
and fuels
Technology TODPedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure IMTS LEV
Alternative fuel
RegulationCompact
cityMix land
use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities TDM
Emission standardTop runner program
Information Teleworking
Car sharingAwareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-driveIT/ITS
IT / ITS
EconomyLocational Subsidy Fuel tax
Road pricing Rail/bus fare Road pricingLEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
Tokyo, London, Singapore
Urban Compaction
Transit Oriented
Development (TOD)
Railway development
7June2012
Innovating Transport SystemsCUTE Matrix: Avoid
London
Tokyo Nagoya
Bangkok
0 50 km
191019651985
Change in Built-up AreasChanges in Built-up Areas
Urban SprawlAVOIDAVOID
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 13
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Tokyomax. 1 5 , 4 0 0
Londonmax. 1 1 , 5 0 0
2 0 , 0
0 0
5 0
Nagoyamax. 1 7 , 1 0 0
Bangkokmax. 4 2 , 2 0 0
0
km
人 /km2
Population Density (1988)
7June2012 14
AVOID
15
Transit Oriented Development
7June2012
source:left: http://11.pro.tok2.com/~mu3rail/link156.html http://w3land.mlit.go.jp/WebGIS/index.html right: Google maps
20121970
1. Purchased undeveloped land2. Improved the infrastructure and constructed new railway
• Supermarket in station, department store in city terminal, leisure site in terminal3. Sold the land again
• Restore the development benefits TOD without public investment
New town construction by Tokyu Railway CompanyAround Tana Station, Yokohama city
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need totravel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modesImprove road
networkImprove vehicles
and fuels
Technology TODPedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure IMTS LEV
Alternative fuel
RegulationCompact
cityMix land
use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities TDM
Emission standardTop runner program
Information Teleworking
Car sharingAwareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-driveIT/ITS
IT / ITS
EconomyLocational Subsidy Fuel tax
Road pricing Rail/bus fare Road pricingLEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
Rail Improvement
Bangkok, Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai, London
Mass Transit System for Urban/Sububan Lines
7June2012 16
Innovating Transport SystemsCUTE Matrix: Shift
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 17
Railways Improvement vs Road Congestion
Tokyo Seoul Shanghai Singapore London
Area (km2)
615(15,000)
606(1,900)
600(2,900) 700
319(18,000)
Population (million)
8.8(35.2)
9.9(19.9)
10.0(18.4)
4.5 3.0(20.0)
Urban railway (km)
292 338 420 138 652
Avg car speed (km/h)
26 17 20 32 26
(): 2010 data of urban area in the Metropolitan Region (source: demographia)
7June2012
18
Modal Share in Inner Cities (all purposes)
car11%
bus5%rail
48%
walk22%
cycle14%
Tokyocar26%
bus33%
rail36%
walk4%
cycle1%
Seoul
car20%
bus29%
rail4%
walk27%
cycle20%
Shanghai
(2008)(2004)
(2009)(2007)
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
car25%
bus19%rail
17%
walk36%
cycle3%
London
(23wards)
(Inner London)
(city)
(city)
7June2012
Inner TOKYO 23WardsO
D
OuterTOKYO
InnerTOKYO
23Wards
Outer TOKYO
Total : 3. 07 million trip/day Total : 0.35 illion trip/day
Total : 3.06 million trip/day Total : 7.2 million trip/day
Car Rail Bus/Tram Cycle Walk
8%3%
65%
10%14%
17%1%
78%
1% 3%
4%1%
94%
0% 1%46%
3%
29%
9%13%
Modal share on commuter trip in Tokyo metropolitan area
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 20
Tokyo
5km
10km
15km
5km
10km
15km
© Y. Hayashi & S.Lee
Urban Railway Network
Tokyo SeoulTotal Line Length 2,313 476 km
City 292 338 km Hinterland 2,021 138 km
7June2012
Seoul
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
5km
10km
15km
ShanghaiUrban Railway Network
London
5km
10km
15km
Tokyo Seoul Shanghai London
Total Line Length (km)
2,313 476 729 1,401
City (km) 292 338 420 652
Hinterland (km) 2,021 138 309 7497June2012 21
Situation of Sukhumvit after the opening of Skytrain( 2002)
Photo by Hayashi(2002)
SHIFT
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
After SHIFT
7June2012 22
Mass-transit Network of Future Bangkok
2010 84.8km
planning :2016 236km2019 391km2029 509km ( 12lines )
Master Plan Study to adjust rail mass transit system in Bangkok and its vicinity ( 2010 )
SHIFT
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
SHIFT
7June2012 23
CO2 Emission Reduction from Passenger Car by Railway Development
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1000 10000 100000 1000000
Pass
enge
r-ca
r-or
ient
ed C
O2
emiss
ion
chan
ge r
ate
GRP per capita [US$ in 2003]
Shanghai
Beijing
Delhi
2050
2010
2050
2050
201020102010 Bangkok
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Pass
enge
r car
s per
100
0 in
havi
tant
s
GRP per capita [US$ in 2003]
Nagoya
Tokyo
Shanghai
Beijing
Delhi
Bangkok
1993
2050
20502050
2050
19651965
2005
2005
1993
1999
Without Railway
Development during mature stage ( 2030 ~ 2050 )
Developed during early stage ( 2010 ~ 2030 )
SHIFTSHIFT
If railway might be developed during early stage, 36% of
CO2 can be reduced. If including technological
innovation, around 80-86% of CO2 can be reduce.
(2010 年排出量= 1)
Pass
enge
r Car
O
wne
rshi
p(
Car/
1000
pers
on)
GRP par capita ( US dollars in 2003 )
GRP par capita ( US dollars in 2003 )
Chan
ge o
f CO
2 Em
issi
on fo
rm P
C
(co
mpa
ring
2010
)
By 2050, railway will be developed as same level in Tokyo in 2005.
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.
25
Road vs Rail: which is more effective for mitigation of congestion
Cartraveltime
Road construction&operationcost
Roadtrafficvolume Rail
passengervolume
Railtraveltime
Rail construction &operationcost
SRo1
SRo1
SRo2
SRo2
SRa1
SRa1
SRa2
SRa2
DRo1
DRo1
DRo2*
DRo2*
DRa1
DRa1
tRo1
tRo2
tRo2*
CRo2*
CRo1
CRo2 CRa
2
CRa1
Demand level
Supply level
VRa1 VRa
2
Construction cost
Construction cost
Widening cost
Policy A Road widening
Policy B Track widening
ERo2*
VRo2* VRo
1* VRo2
ERo2
ERo1
ERa1
ERa2
Cartraveltime
Road construction&operationcost
Roadtrafficvolume Rail
passengervolume
Railtraveltime
Rail construction &operationcost
SRo1
SRo1
SRo2
SRo2
SRa1
SRa1
SRa2
SRa2
DRo1
DRo1
DRo2*
DRo2*
DRa1
DRa1
tRo1
tRo2
tRo2*
CRo2*
CRo1
CRo2 CRa
2
CRa1
Demand level
Supply level
VRa1 VRa
2
Construction cost
Construction cost
Widening cost
Policy A Road widening
Policy B Track widening
ERo2*
VRo2* VRo
1* VRo2
ERo2
ERo1
ERa1
ERa2
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
SHIFT
Road Rail
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need totravel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modesImprove road
networkImprove vehicles
and fuels
Technology TODPedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure IMTS LEV
Alternative fuel
RegulationCompact
cityMix land
use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities TDM
Emission standardTop runner program
Information Teleworking
Car sharingAwareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-driveIT/ITS
IT / ITS
EconomyLocational Subsidy Fuel tax
Road pricing Rail/bus fare Road pricingLEV subsidy
LEV preferential taxYoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
MRT LRT
developmentSingapore &
SeoulHierarchically
Integrated Transport
Bus priority (BRT)
IT/ITS operation
system
PT fare system
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 26
Innovating Transport SystemsCUTE Matrix: Shft
Recent Expansion Plan for the City Centre and Railway Network in Singapore
(Sun, G., LTA)
Marina Bay development (2008)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 27
Bukit Panjang LRT
• 8 km, 14 stations
• Opened in 1999
(Sun, G., LTA)
Sengkang LRT
• 11km, 14 stations
• Integrated with Sengkang MRT
• Fully-automated system
• Opened in 2003
Punggol LRT
• 10km, 15 stations
• Integrated with Punggol MRT
• Fully-automated system
• Opened in 2005
LRT Integrated with MRT in Singapore
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 28
SHIFT
Status of Existing Bus Lanes (2005)• Exclusive median bus lanes: 7 lines/ 84km • Curbside bus lanes: 293.6km
■ Expansion Plan (13 lines / 192 km)
Before After
Source: GyengChul Kim
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Seoul
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 29
SHIFT
Increase - Network capacity new bus route +BRT - Bus ridership - Bus frequency (Keep Interval)Decrease - Total bus operation cost
> Increase - Bus company revenue> Decrease - Subsidy of SMG
Source: GyengChul Kim
Hierarchical BRT System in Seoul
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 30
SHIFT
Source: GyengChul Kim
Integrated Bus-Subway Operation in SeoulBus interval management
Safe operation
Providing dynamic information to public
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 31
SHIFT
32
Electric Fare System (Smart card) •Distance based fare (no change for transfers)
• Data collection for traffic management
• Non-transit applications (e.g. retail purchases, mileages)
Seoul (2004-) Singapore (2002-)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
SHIFT
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 33
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need totravel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modesImprove road
networkImprove vehicles
and fuels
Technology TODPedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure IMTS LEV
Alternative fuel
RegulationCompact
cityMix land
use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities TDM
Emission standardTop runner program
Information Teleworking
Car sharingAwareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-driveIT/ITS
IT / ITS
EconomyLocational Subsidy Fuel tax
Road pricing Rail/bus fare Road pricingLEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
Road pricing
IT/ITS operation
system
Car ownership &
parking control
Emission Standard
Singapore & LondonCar Traffic Control
7June2012
Innovating Transport SystemsCUTE Matrix: Shift + Improve
Singapore
Vehicle Quota System (VQS)
• Introduced in 1990
• Certificate of Entitlement (COE)
– valid for 10 years
– Bid the COE
Shanghai
License Plate Auction System
• Introduced in 1997
• Bid license plates of vehicles
• The price exceeds 60,000yuan ($9,540) in 2012
(Sun, G., LTA)
Car Ownership Control
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 34
SHIFT
Off-Street Parking Control in London•Maximum car parking space by land use
Location Marginal floor area (m2) to add one parking space
Central London (CAZ) 1,000 – 1,500
Inner London 600 – 1,000
Outer London 100 – 600
Employment car parking standard
Residential car parking standard
Predominant housing type
Car parking provision
4+ bed units 2 – 1.5 spaces
3 bed units 1.5 – 1 space
1 – 2 bed units 1 to less than 1
•Maximum car parking space by Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTAL)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 35
SHIFT
On-Street Parking Control in Tokyo
• In principle, parking is prohibited on the road• parking meters are installed in some of the road • Management by the police
Tokyo St.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
1000004 wheel2wheel
Number of cars parked in the streets in Tokyo[cars]
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 36
SHIFT
Area Licensing Scheme (ALS)
• Implemented in 1975
• Reduced traffic entering the Restricted Zone (RZ)
Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)
• Implemented in 1998
• Replaced manual ALS
(Sun, G., LTA)
Road Pricing in Singapore
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 37
SHIFT
65 kph45 kph
IncreaseERP rate
DecreaseERP rate
Expressways
30 kph20 kph
Increase ERP rate
DecreaseERP rate
Arterial Roads
• ERP is a congestion management tool
• Pay-as-you-use principle
• Review speed range at 3-month interval, adjust ERP rates
Courtesy of Mohinder Singh, LTA
traffic.smart
Application of ITS
Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 38
SHIFT
39
Road Pricing in London
Congestion Charge
• Implemented in 2003
• The Zone of City Centre
• Exemption introduced in 2011 for LEVs (EURO5, EV/PHV etc)
Low Emission Zone
• Implemented in 2008
• Freight vehicles and coaches
• The whole city (GLA)
• EURO3 standard
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
SHIFT
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 40
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need totravel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modesImprove road
networkImprove vehicles
and fuels
Technology TODPedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure IMTS LEV
Alternative fuel
RegulationCompact
cityMix land
use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities TDM
Emission standardTop runner program
Information Teleworking
Car sharingAwareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-driveIT/ITS
IT / ITS
EconomyLocational Subsidy Fuel tax
Road pricing Rail/bus fare Road pricingLEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
Emission Standard
Japan Top Runner Program
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University7June2012
Innovating Transport SystemsCUTE Matrix: Improve
Emission Standards in the World
1996 2001 2006 2011-0.05-0.000.050.100.150.200.250.30
g-PM
/ k
Wh
PM
1996 2001 2006 20110.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
JapanEUUSChinaThai-landg-
Nox
/ k
Wh
NOx
1995 2000 2005 20100
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06PM
Ann
ual a
vera
ge [
mg
/ m
3]
1995 2000 2005 20100
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06NO2 NO
Ann
ual a
vera
ge
[ppm
]
Euro2
Euro3
Euro4
Euro5
Euro2
Euro3
Euro4,5
Atmospheric Concentrations of NOx and PM around roads in Japan
Source: Ministry of Environment ,Japan, www.env.go.jp/air/osen/index.html7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 41
IMPROVE
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 42
Top Runner Program with vehicles List of the Specified 21 Appliances
Passenger VehiclesFreight VehiclesAir ConditionersElectric RefrigeratorsElectric FreezersElectric Rice CookersMicrowave OvensFluorescent LightsElectric Toilet SeatsTV Sets (CRT, LCD, Plasma)Video Cassette RecordersDVD RecordersComputersMagnetic Disk UnitsCopying MachinesSpace HeatersGas Cooking AppliancesGas Water HeatersOil Water HeatersVending MachinesTransformers
at the time of standards establishment
Target year
19km/L
18km/L
17km/L
15km/L15km/L
14km/L
13km/L
12km/L
16
Fuel Efficiency (km/L)
target value
Weighted average value for each product category
7June2012
The “Top Runner” program: Efficiency improvement(Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry )
IMPROVE
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 43
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need totravel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modesImprove road
networkImprove vehicles
and fuels
Technology TODPedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure IMTS LEV
Alternative fuel
RegulationCompact
cityMix land
use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities TDM
Emission standardTop runner program
Information Teleworking
Car sharingAwareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-driveIT/ITS
IT / ITS
EconomyLocational Subsidy Fuel tax
Road pricing Rail/bus fare Road pricingLEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax7June2012 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
LEV subsidyLEV preferential
tax
Japan Greening Taxation
Innovating Transport SystemsCUTE Matrix: Improve
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 44
Effects of Tax and Subsidy Policies
7June2012 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Fueleconomy[km/l]
Observed Estimation
Sales base
Real running
EV
HV
NGV
LPG
Methanol
Ownership base
Greening taxation
Greening taxation
Methanol-fueled vehicleLPG-fueled vehicleNatural gas vehicleHybrid vehicleElectrical vehicle
Year
No. of vehicles
Top RunnerProgram
Top RunnerProgram
IMPROVE
45
Increase in Low Emission Cars
7June2012
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000EVHV
[vehicle]
Year
HV : 1,418,400(2.54 % of total passenger cars)
EV : 16,800(0.03 % of total passenger cars)
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
IMPROVE
Scenario for Improvement of Power Source and Fuel in the Case of Bangkok
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 46
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Year
CO2E
miss
ion
Fact
or[g
-CO
2/km
]
CO2 Emission Factor for Passenger Vehicle* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.
FCV
EV
HV
GV
IMPROVEIMPROVE
• Scenario for CO2 Emission Factor Improvement was set based on estimation in Japan
• Production of electricity will be estimated based on scenario “increased use of renewable energy”
Lower level
Upper level
Scenario for Low-emission Vehicle Diffusion
7June2012Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 47
IMPROVEIMPROVE
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
300
400
二輪 GV
二輪 EV
普通 GV
HV
普通 EV
Year
Nu
mb
er
of r
eg
iste
red
Ve
hic
le [‘
00
0]
Gasoline Motorcycle
ElectricMotorcycle
GasolinePassenger Car
HybridPassenger Car
ElectricPassenger Car
Based on Estimation in Japan, passenger car using gasoline will be 0% with the scenario that motorcycle will sift to passenger car,
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.
Identifying A Necessary Policy Package
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
CO2
emis
sion
s fro
m p
asse
nger
ca
rs in
Ban
gkok
(Mt/
year
) AVOIDSHIFTIMPROVE
Mitigation from
2050
Do Nothing
CO2 mitigation Scenario
SHIFT
IMPRO
VEAVO
ID
70%
Extensive Measures Needed for Low-Carbon Transport
IMPROVE
487June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
49
Energy Source
Mod
al S
hare
MC
PCGasoline
RailElectricity
Public Bus
Diesel CNG
Comprehensive Strategy to Achieve CO2 Emission Reduction Target
Electricity
DieselCNG
Biomass
Gasoline
Electricity
DieselCNG
Gasoline
-50%
-30%
From the view point of energy consumption
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Decomposition of Urban Transport Emission
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 50
CAR OWNERSHIP
Urban area
TransportFrequency
Public TransportImprovement
FuelEconomy
Level ofcongestion
LEV diffuseDevelopment of Public Transport
Compact Development
Road Pricing
Regulation of Sprawl
Fuel TaxIT/ITS
Road Improvement
LEV Ratio
Concentration of urban activity
× ×
Trip Generation Degree of Car dependence Technical Level
Total Trip Length
year year
Emission Factor
year
Modal Share=
year
Emission
AVOID SHIFT IMPROVETotal
CUTEPolicy Matrix
7June2012
× ×
Conclusion
• CUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments) for Innovating Transport Systems
• Decomposition for understand Urban Transport Emission: Avoid, Shift and Improve
• Back-casting approach for seeking effective combinations • Scenario and Roadmap
517June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Conclusion
• To realize the low-carbon society, leapfrog development is necessary in Asian developing cities.
• Thus, the future vision of low-carbon society which will achieve huge reduction of CO2 emission should be established firstly.
• Impacts of each avoid, sift and improve measures should be clarified.
• Then, thier effective combinations should be examined through backcasting approach.
• Finally the available scenario should be set up for the roadmap of each city.
527June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
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