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An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Developmentand Changing Climate
Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
Publication date:2015
Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of record
Link back to DTU Orbit
Citation (APA):Löwe, R. (Author), Urich, C. (Author), Sto Domingo, N. (Author), Mark, O. (Author), & Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.(Author). (2015). An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development andChanging Climate. 2D/3D (physical products), DTU Environment.
An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate Löwe, R.1, Urich, C.2, Sto. Domingo, N.D.F3, Mark, O.3, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.1
1 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark 2 Faculty of Engineering, Monash University, Australia 3 DHI Water and Environment, Denmark
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2 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark
Planning for long-term
What do we want, and, how to get there?
Vision / Strategy
Social Barriers
• community preferences
• stakeholder preferences
• institutional framework
Future uncertainties
• Societal preferences, government agendas,…
• Climate change
• Urban development
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3 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark
Planning for long-term
from: Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E., ter Maat, J., 2013. Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Glob. Environ. Chang. 23, 485–498. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006
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4 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark
Model A
A Modelling Framework to Assess Strategies Services
Drivers
drinking water supply
cooling
ecology
protection from
flooding
future climate urban
development societal
preferences
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Data management and decision support tool
Model B
Model C
Model D
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5 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark
A Modelling Framework to Assess Strategies
Urban development Model
(DANCE4WATER)
1D-2D Hydraulic Model (MIKE FLOOD) adaptation options
(with location and extent)
damage assessment for each option
cost-benefit assessment
for each option
green roofs
pipes
rainwater harvesting
external drivers (climate)
implement in MIKE
flood hazard (depth,velocity)
benefits and investment cost
high-level trends
urban development
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6 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark
An Australian Case Study Scotchman’s Creek Catchment
• 780 ha
• residential, strong densification 1963 to 2010 and on-going
• urban development scenarios: business as usual (BAU), no development in flood prone areas (PEN)
• urban development here as change of impervious area and vulnerability
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7 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark
An Australian Case Study Urban Development
BAU PEN
c.f.: Urich, C., Rauch, W., 2014. Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties. Water Res. 66C, 374–389. doi:10.1016/j.watres.2014.08.020
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An Australian Case Study
Total Impervious Area Expected Annual Damage
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Open Questions • urban development in a different context (de-densification, different city
structure) • required complexity for the urban development model
• coupling hydraulic and urban development model (excluding waterways as development areas…)
• hydraulic simulation: stability, simulation speed
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10 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark
Emulation of Flood Hazard 1D-2D Hydraulic
Model (MIKE FLOOD)
n-dimensional inputs: • rainfall • sealevel • urban development • …
conceptual model for network and surface
(emulator)
many simulations
few simulations
(Bayesian) updating
flood hazard
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11 DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark
Integration with Other Disciplines
visions of stakeholders and community
modelling framework that allows systematic testing of
strategies (policies, infrastructure, urban
form)
inform visions and strategies from model results
Systematic Evaluation of strategies and evelopment
of adaptation pathways
School of Social Sciences (Monash
University)
Faculty of Engineering (Monash University),
DTU Environment (DTU)
Dept. of Water Science and Engineering (Unesco-IHE)
Thank you! [email protected]