an overview about afghanistan

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FEWS NET Afghanistan


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Outline

Description Population distribution poverty Food Insecurity Livelihood zones Agroclimatic factors

Rainfall/snow Agriculture Water

Special events and FS Conflict Drought

FEWS NETs food security Monitoring tools Snow pack Supply-demand ground water

NDVI Rainfall Water equivalent wrsi

Monitoring 2003-2004 Agriculture Hazard Index by District


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Population=28,000,000, source landscan 10% of pup, is semi-nomadic pastoralist-


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Population=28,000,000, source landscan 10% of pup, is semi-nomadic pastoralist-


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Poverty Distribution

cost of a typical rural Afghan householdAf8,450 per person per year, equivalent toAf23 or US$0.43 per person/day forsubsistence food consumption.

52.8% of the rural population in Afghanistan

is poor

lack of access to food is due to low incomes,

as opposed to lack of food supply. (NRVA)

Income: Employment, livestock, remittancesand petty trade accounts for a significantportion of rural household income

The distribution of poverty, as

measured by food consumption

is2,100 kilocalories per day perperson


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Food Insecurity (FI)

20+ years of war and 4 years of drought hasdestroyed the economic structure of thepeople.

Large amount of the pop is vulnerable.

2002-03 WFP 300,000MT of food aid for 20%of pop.

The main reasons for FI :

reliance on underground water for irrigation

cold spells early in the planting season

lack of off-farm income and limitedemployment

reduction of livestock and herds

limited access to fertilizer and improved-seeds

the inflow of returnees and insecurity.


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Rainfall/snow

Starts on Sep on thenorth-east and going

to the south and westby Nov, the peakmonths for rainfall areFeb, March, April

which build up thesnow.


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Agriculture

Agriculture is the maineconomic activity

12% of land is cultivated

46% is pasture Wheat is the main crop, other

cereal maiz, barely and rice

Specialty crops, such as fruitand nuts are consumed locallyand are the main agricultural

food export Opium poppy is the main cash

generator

90% of wheat is planted in thefall, 80% is irrigated


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Water

Most of Afghanistansagricultural land is irrigatedand depend not on theimmediate rainfall but on

water released in the springfrom snow that builds upduring the winter. So it ispossible to get a good idea onwater availability for the fallharvest, many months aheadof time, by analyzing the snowbuild up.
http://www.photostogo.com/store/Chubby.asp?ImageNumber=995314


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dried agriculture land

Drought 1998-2001(02)

Recent drought(1999-2001)

Studies conducted byFAO, DCAAR and SCA60-70% of the underwater channels and

85% of the shallowwells dried out duringthe drought.

A dried up kariz(subtarranean canal)


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Food Security Monitoring

FEWS NET Agroclimatic

Monitoring Tools


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Irrigation Supply and Demand

Seasonal Irrigation Supply & DemandIrrigation Supply & Demand Anomaly (Median Year)


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WRSI


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Produces agraph for presentperiod, would begood to have a

historical


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irrigated

rain fed

Rangelands


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Wells being monitored since 2004


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Monitoring 2003-04


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A story of monitoring

Fall-03 Winter-04 Fall-04 Winter-05 Fall-05 Winter-06

Good snow build up

farmers reportedly

satisfied with thelevel of rainfall andexpecting a goodseason if climateconditions remainsimilarly favorablein coming months.

Unseasonably hightemperatures have caused themelting of the snow cover inmuch of the country. Rapidmelting of snow shortens theperiod of percolation for groundwater recharge

By Late Febaccumulatedprecipitation levels weresimilar to 2003, thoughwell below the long-termaverage


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By the end of March TheWater supply and demandmodel was showing theimpact of the early snow

melting

Watersheds startedto show water deficitto support crop.


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By June, Most of theshallow wellsproviding water forhuman and livestockconsumption had driedout and some rivershad no water.

Agricultural crop

failure in most ofthe provinces. Asshown by theNDVI comparisonwith to 2003

Most of the karizes that were fully or partially functioningneeded to be cleaned or rehabilitated. Two dams inGhazni Province (Sardeh and Zana Khan Dams) were

under rehabilitation and Sultan Dam needed to berehabilitated.


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High temperature aswell as very lowprecipitation hadcaused a severeshortage of drinkingand irrigationwater in many partsof the country.

Field assessments

indicated furtherdeclines in watersources comparedto 2003 and recentdrought years.

About 8000families werereported asdisplaced due towater shortage


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By Dec 2004large amounts ofsnow had fallenin most of thecountry.

Snow Depleation History, Basin 102

0.0000

0.2000

0.4000

0.6000

0.8000

1.0000

1.2000

273

297

321

345 1 25 49 73 97 12

1145

Julian dates

%o

fSno

w

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06


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Agriculture Hazard Index byDistrict


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irrigated

rain fed

Rangelands


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The Supply and demand ration gives a percentmeasurement of the correspondence between

water supply and demand.


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The supply and demand (SD) Hazard Index (SDHI) is calculatedas I=1-0.02(SD-50) for SD


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The SDHI is then multiplied by the %irrigated crop by districtto obtain the Irrigated crop Hazard Index.


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The NDVI Hazard Index (NDVIHI) is calculated as I=1-0.02(NDVI-50) for NDVI


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Name: Khosh Wa FiringLVZ: Salangi Plains Mixed Farming

Pop: 95076

Name: Shahrak

LVZ: West-CentralHighlands Agro-Pastoral

Pop: 83916

Name: Badhlani Jadid

LVZ: High cereal production

Pop:70273


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References

FEWS NET monthly reports 2003-2006

Documentation for FEWS tools

National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment(NRVA) in Rural Afghanistan

an overview about afghanistan

Documents