an overview of hvdc market and future outlook · •back-to-back projects to connect regional...
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An overview of HVDC market and future outlookSaqib Saeed
Principal Analyst
Power Technology Research LLC (PTR)
Agenda
• Global overview of HVDC market
• Specifics of growing HVDC markets
• Manufacturer profiles
• Opportunities and bottlenecks
Global overview of HVDC marketInstalled capacity split by technologies
Projects Count by Region
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Africa Asia Australia &Oceania
Europe Middle East NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
HV
DC
Pro
ject
s
Number of HVDC Projects (1990-2030)
VSC
LCC
Source: Power Technology Research
Europe and Asia to stay the biggest markets
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025
GW
LCC vs VSC capacity (GW)
LCC
VSC
HVDC Installed Capacity
Source: Power Technology Research
Steady growth expected in VSC market
Specifics of growing HVDC marketsMarket drivers, strategies and forecast
China’s HVDC market overview
• A surge of HVDC projects from 2001 to 2010 – More than 23 projects
• Long distance bulk power transfer and China’s dependability on hydropower were main instigators of these HVDC projects• 58% of the projects were 3000MW and higher capacity
• From 2010 onwards, era of UHVDC projects was initiated• 67% of the projects installed/planned after 2010 are UHVDC
China has developed a strong HVDC manufacturing base
China’s HVDC market overview
• Huge investments in R&D and make in China policy has started to pay off• Local manufacturing of valves, transformers, reactors, submarine cables
and P&C• Three state-of-the-art testing labs by SGCC and CEPRI• 93% of the switching elements used in all HVDC projects are produced
locally• More than 50% of converter transformers are also produced within China
• More VSC based projects are expected in future years• Multiterminal wind power projects• 9 VSC projects are expected till 2025
China has developed a strong HVDC manufacturing base
India’s HVDC market overview
• Inter-regional capacity (23 GW) and unevenly distributed energy sources e.g. coal in central region (120GW) and hydro in north• Back-to-back projects to connect regional transmission network
• Cross border HVDC projects with Bangladesh and Sri-Lanka
More VSC based projects are expected in India
0
2
4
6
8
1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
GW
Yearly capcity addition in India (GW)
EMEA HVDC market overview
• European market is growing at a rapid pace yet it is extremely competitive and dominated by Tier-1 players• Integration of renewables (specifically offshore wind) will drive the future
market with main influencing factor of UK and Germany‘s plans to install 25GW of offshore wind by 2030
• 3000MW capacity cross-border projects are planned in Middle East in next 3 years• Saudi Arabia and GCC interconnections
• Electricity imports from MENA to European demand centers (EU-GCC clean energy) can result in multiple HVDC lines
Renewables to drive the European HVDC market
Manufacturer profilesGo-to market strategies, mergers & acquisitions, R&D
ABBLargest installed base of 120 GW HVDC globally
Focus on Asian markets
Partnerships with local entities in India
R&D spend in swiss semiconductor
manufacturing base
Divested its HV cables business
SiemensExpected to win major
offshore wind power projects
Focus on European market
Partners with local Chinese players
Recent R&D spend for a testing facility in
Germany
Sources IGBT modules from Infineon and Mitsubishi
Opportunities and bottlenecksFocus of OEMs and system operators
Offshore wind – An opportunity
• China, UK and Germany have plans to build multiple GW of offshore wind power projects
• All Tier-1 players have focus towards this market opportunity
• Also gives an opportunity to maritime industry players to provide platform for offshore converter stations
• Players from Middle East have built partnerships with Tier-1 players
• Offshore wind market and stricter grid codes will drive the VSC market at a rapid pace in next 5 years
VSC HVDC market will increase rapidly
Multivendor operability
• HVDC systems are provided as a turnkey solution to system operators• A black box in terms of operation
• With increasing market of wind power, multiterminal HVDC systems are more common
• System operators expect to be able to install HVDC converters from different manufacturers in one multiterminal project• A multivendor solution can result in a cost competitive environment
A challenge for system operators
Multivendor operability
• European system operators are taking following steps to cope with the problem:• Brining current OEMs on the same page to share information
• Small scale simulation based multiterminal systems with different suppliers to solve multivendor operability
• Standardizing design requirements for all manufacturers
• Encouraging new OEMs to make the HVDC market less concentrated
A challenge for system operators
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Saqib SaeedPrincipal Analyst – T&DT. +49 (0)89 12252374M. +49 (0)176 43408939M. +1 408 622 [email protected]
Contact Details
Sunnyvale, CA, USA
Munich, Germany