analysing regional data and using evidence to manage demand 1 susannah bowyer, research &...
TRANSCRIPT
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Analysing regional data and using evidence to manage demandSusannah Bowyer, Research & Development Manager
Kath Wilkinson, Research & Evaluation Officer
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Session overview
• Review national and local data on demand
• Consider ways of monitoring and evaluating your services
• Research in Practice support
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Increasing demand. March 2014 figures (DfE release 29.09.14)
• 5% increase in CiN. Episodes of need are getting longer
• 47% of CiN state abuse or neglect primary need
• 12% increase in S. 47 enquiries
• Sharp 12% increase in children subject of a CP plan. In comparison, the increase from 2011-12 to 2012-13 was 0.5%.
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11% increase in referrals to CSC
Re-referrals also up on previous year.
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Increasing demandMarch 2014 figures (DfE release 29.09.14)
• LAC – steady increase over five years Up 1% on 2013. Up 7% compared to 2010
• 5% increase in children starting to be looked after
• 6% increase in children ceasing to be looked after
• 26% increase in adoptions – now falling back
• Rates vary significantly between LAs
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The regional pictureRate of LAC in West Midlands 2013-4
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Children who started to be looked after and the percentage taken into care 2013-2014
All children who started to be looked after in the year ending 31 March
…of which: children who were taken into
care
Percentage of children taken into
care
England 30,430 10,920 36West Midlands 3,600 1,430 40Coventry 335 185 56Dudley 180 90 51Sandwell 220 105 48Walsall 225 105 47Staffordshire 365 160 44Wolverhampton 330 135 41Telford and Wrekin 110 45 40Birmingham 655 255 39Solihull 125 45 35Stoke-On-Trent 225 75 34Warwickshire 325 105 33Shropshire 120 35 30Herefordshire 125 30 24Worcestershire 270 60 22
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Percentage of children taken into care 2010-2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
England 34 35 36 38 36West Midlands 35 32 37 44 40Birmingham 39 42 43 53 39Coventry 41 28 35 48 56Dudley 54 43 32 55 51Herefordshire 23 34 27 36 24Sandwell 42 30 45 53 48Shropshire 20 34 22 41 30Solihull 11 14 30 38 35Staffordshire 31 30 32 34 44Stoke-On-Trent 37 42 44 53 34Telford and Wrekin 34 34 42 32 40Walsall 41 31 46 40 47Warwickshire 29 24 29 42 33Wolverhampton 43 30 44 41 41Worcestershire 22 27 29 33 22
Decrease by at least 10%
Increase by at least 10%
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DfE Children’s Social Care Innovation Fund• Focus on:
• Rethinking children’s social work • Rethinking support for adolescents in or on the edge of care
• Supporting on three levels
Taking innovation with an evidence
base to new organisations, places and/or contexts and
supporting others to copy it
Supporting pilots and change
programmes which spread more
effective ways of supporting vulnerable
children
Supporting pilots and change
programmes which test/’prototype’
more effective ways of supporting
vulnerable children to build
evidence
Develop Ideas Test & Improve Scale and spread
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Evaluation and monitoring: Measuring outcomes
Required to:
• Make a case for resources
• Identify areas for improvement
• Demonstrate effectiveness
• Evaluate impact and value
• Inform future planning
There are a number of challenges:
• Deciding which outcomes to measure
• Deciding how to measure outcomes
• Deciding whether outcomes have been achieved
• Deciding what to do with the outcome measures
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How do you measure outcomes?
• What are the outcomes for your edge of care services?
• How do you currently measure these outcomes?
• What does this information tell you about:- Impact on demand across other services- Impact on family outcomes- Cost savings
• What other data is collected that you could utilise?
Joined up delivery
webinars
Joined up thinking
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webinars
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Example: RiP evaluation projectContext: Development of a new Specialist Adolescence Service to reduce the number of unplanned adolescents placed in care
Evaluation aims:
• Does the service work in an effective and efficient way? (process evaluation)
• Is the service achieving its aims? (impact evaluation)• Are there any other associated impacts?Key stakeholders: adolescents and their families, service staff, staff in other services and voluntary organisations connected to the service
Methods (over time):
• Collaborative planning and development of instruments• Quantitative (use data already being collected for comparison)• Qualitative (combination of surveys, interviews and focus groups)
