analyst meeting for 2q 2011 performance • august 8,...

Analyst Meeting for 2Q 2011 performance • August 8, 2011

Dr. Anusorn Sangnimnuan President

Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong EVP-Accounting &Finance

Agenda

Performance Highlights

Operational Performance

Project Progress

Financial Performance

Market Outlook

- 2 -

Global Oil Market: Prices Movement

- 3 -

$/BBL

80

90

100

110

120

130

Unrest in MENAProfit taking

The IEA surprisingly announced to inject 60 MB of its SPR

DB

WTI

U.S. and EU zone debt crisis

107.0

119.5

114.4

102.0

Brent

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Performance Highlights of 2Q 2011

Crude run 98.2 KBD

GRM 12 $/bbl, stock gain 5.21 $/bbl

Marketing sales volume growth by 10.53%

Income from PQI compensation

CIT saving resulting from BOI-granted projects

- 4 -

Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS

42,906 MB 4,183 MB 3,021 MB 2.33 Bht

Singapore Refined Oil Market: Prices Movement

-4.69-5.68

-8.69 -8.57-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

8.5510.31

12.5914.20

0

5

10

15

20

7.24

11.41

18.40 19.51

0

5

10

15

20

UNL 95-Dubai

Gas Oil-Dubai

Fuel Oil-Dubai

2009

Strong demand in the region due to refinery turnaround Open arbitrage from East to West ahead of U.S. driving season

Tight supply from heavy refinery turnaround in Asia Firm demand from China and India for power generation Limited export from China due to tight domestic supplies

Higher crude price pressure down fuel oil Heavy western arbitrage inflow

$/BBL

UNL 95-Dubai

Gas Oil-Dubai

Fuel Oil-Dubai

2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011

- 5 -

5.21

-0.99

5.12

2Q11 2Q10 1Q11

Inventory G (L) ($/BBL)

Inventory G (L) ($/BBL)

7.325.46

9.62

2Q11 2Q10 1Q11

Market GRM ($/BBL)

2Q11 2Q10 1Q11

GRM Performance

2Q11 2Q10

Base GRM

GRM Hedging

Inventory G(L)

MKM

1Q11

-0.99

-0.53

0.63

-0.97

GRM Hedging ($/BBL)

GRM Hedging ($/BBL)

Unit : $/bbl

Accounting GIM ($/bbl)

14.48 $/bbl

2Q11

- 6 -

12.00 $/bbl

2.48 2.56 2.54

1Q11 1Q10 4Q10

MKM ($/BBL)

MKM ($/BBL)

Total GRM12.00

MKM2.48

1

Refinery Performance

Crude run increase by 56.62% QoQ and 21.98% YoYAverage Crude run in 1H2011 was 80.5 KBD

Crude Run Product Yield 2Q11

Crude Selection 2Q11

Import 50%

Local

50%

Import Local

Import

Local

FO 14%

Gasoline 20%

GO 53%

JET 13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

IK

HSD

Gasoline

FO

- 7 -

Actual Plan Forecast

80.588.0 89.1

62.7

98.2 100.0 100.091.4

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Y2011

KBD

PTT45.6%

ESSO16.4%

BCP13.5%

SHELL12.1%

CALTEX6.2%

OTHER6.2%

Marketing Performance

Average Sales Volume through Marketing Channels (ML/MO)

3rd rank in market share of sale volume through service station

Sales volume growth by 10.53% QoQ

2.7 2.5 2.5 2.519 18 20 22

68 61 65 65

81 87 90 94

152189 180 180

323

357 357 364

Q1 (Actual) Q2 (Actual) Q3 (PLAN) Q4 (PLAN)

HSD

MOGAS

JET

FO

LUBE

Gasohol Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)

59.5062.45

Q1 /11 Q2/11

Axi

s Ti

tle

Axis Title

Average Sales volume of Gasohol (ML/MO)

Average Sales volume of Gasohol (ML/MO)

Q2 Y2011 Performance

- 8 -

2.7 2.5 2.5 2.519 18 20 22

68 61 65 65

81 87 90 94

152189 180 180

323

357 357 364

Q1 (Actual) Q2 (Actual) Q3 (PLAN) Q4 (PLAN)

LUBE FO JET MOGAS HSD

4,648 4,935 5,241 5,668 5,814 6,291 6,612 6,754 6,654 7,257 7,429

8,700 8,845 9,108 10,093 10,561 10,977 10,979

147172 183 199 208 217 223 232 250 255 267

297 300 314 334 347 369 399

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11

E20 2011 Target : 500 Service Stations

Sales Growth of Gasohol E20 & E85

32 48 60 72 72 84 96 105 120160 164

196 227 228 265 240

400

462

2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5

1516

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


E85 2011 Target : 30 Service Stations

- 9 -

4,648 4,935 5,241

5,668 5,814 6,291 6,612 6,754 6,654

7,257 7,429

8,700 8,845 9,108 10,093

10,561 10,977 10,979

147172

183199 208

217 223232 250 255 267

297 300314

334347

369399

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


Sale Volume (KL) Number of ServiceStations

32 48 60 72 72 84 96 105 120160 164

196 227 228 265 240

400

462

2 2 2 2 2 23 3 3

45 5 5 5 5 5

1516

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Sale Volume (KL) Number of ServiceStations

Bangchak Bio Fuel: B-100

- 10 -

Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-

B B B

B3 => Utilization 66%



67.0%68.8%

82.9%

74.4%

42.9%

69.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Utilization

+60%

26.00 25.57 26.94

37.91

50.42

35.62

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Plam Oil Price (Baht/kg)

5.81 6.026.76 6.48

4.42

5.78

Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Sales

26.00 25.57 26.94

37.91

50.42

35.62

Plam Oil Price (Baht/kg)

Utilization 2H’54 depends on government policy

Sales Volume (ML/MO)

5.81 6.026.76 6.48

4.42

5.78

Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Sales Volume

Sales Volume

Agenda



Project Progress


Market Outlook

- 11 -

Project Progress

- 12 -

Gasoline Euro IV Standard

Renewable Energy Business

Phase I UBE & TAE

EURO IV : USD 50 Million Investment

Incentive 24 st./L @ 220 ML/Month

Expected EURO IV premium will be higher

GAS OIL

EURO IV

GASOLINE

EURO IV

2010 2011 2012

Gasoline EURO IV Commissioning in Sep

EURO IV becomes fully effective in 2012

EURO IV Project

- 13 -

Solar Farm : Phase I

Phase I : 38 MW

Project Cost ~ 4,200 MB

Work Progress 88.6%

8 MW COD Aug 5, 2011

30 MW COD Nov 2011

Expected EBITDA in 2011 ~115 MB

- 14 -

Facility Building

Substation and Service Building Inverter House


- 15 -


- 16 -

Thin-film

Tracker system


- 17 -

Ubon Bio Ethanol


Expected EBITDA 1,400MB/Year

Overall Project Progress : 16.88% ( As of July 7, 2011 )

BCP 21.30%

TOP 21.30%

Existing Shareholder

57.40%

1

2

3

Ubon Bio EthanolShareholders’ structure

Ubon Bio Ethanol

- 18 -

Starch Plant

Cassava Plantation

Ubon Bio Ethanol

- 19 -

UBE UAE UBG

Ethanol 400,000 Liter/day

Starch 300 Ton/day

Bio Gas 36,000 m3/day

UBE Location & Capacity

TAE Shareholders’ Structure

Lanna 45%

BCP 40%

Others 15%

1

2

3

Thai Agro Energy

- 20 -

Thai Agro Energy


Expected EBITDA 400 MB/Year

Capacity :

- 165,000 Liters/day from Molasses

- 200,000 Liters/day from Cassava

The company has signed share sales and purchase agreement of Thai Agro Energy Public Co., Ltd. with LANNA Resources Public Co., Ltd.

Thai Agro Energy

- 21 -

Fermentation Zone Distillation Unit Boiler Plant

Palm Plantation

Palm Plantation 80,000 Rais at Phathumthani

Palm mill with capacity 45 tons/hour (COD in 2015)

Project cost 800 MB, expected EBITDA 230 MB/yr

Project progress : Pilot project of 1,200 Rais ( 800 Rais completed )

- 22 -

Palm Plantation

- 23 -

Location Information :

Area Size 1,209 Rais

- Zone 1-10 624 Rais

- Zone 11-19 373 Rais

- Road Area 100 Rais

- Water Area 92 Rais

Office Location Pilot Plantation Area Land filled Area

Land Preparation

Palm Plantation

- 24 -

Learning Center

Agenda



Project Progress


Market Outlook

- 25 -

Financial Performance : Consolidated

- 26 -

2Q 2011 2Q 2010 1Q11

Sales

42,906

32,958 35,759

1 2 3

4,183

1,2232,351

1 2 3

3,021

432 1,424

1 2 3

EBITDA

Net Profit

Unit : Million Baht

EPS (Baht) 2.33 0.37 1.14

Profit and Loss Highlights

- 27 -

Q2 2011 Q2 2010 ∆YoY Q1 2011 ∆QoQ

Sale Revenue 42,906 32,958 +30.2% 35,759 +20.0%

EBITDA 4,183 1,223 +242.0% 2,351 +77.9%

Depreciation & Amortization (525) (459) (478)

Other FX and Impairment (105) 81 221

Financial Cost (137) (229) (200)

Pre-tax Profit 3,416 616 +454.5% 1,895 +80.3%

Tax (389) (174) (449)

Net Profit 3,028 442 +585.0% 1,446 +109.4%

EPS 2.33 0.37 1.14

Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,415 (233) +707.4% 888 +59.5%

Adjusted EBITDA 2,768 1,456 +90.1% 1,346 +105.6%

Consolidated

Unit : Million Baht

Remark : Net Profit including Non-controlling Interest

Profit and Loss HighlightsBCP Only

BOI Project Tax privilege of 640 MB causes effective Tax rate in 1H11 to be 15.72%- 28 -

Q2 2011 Q2 2010 ∆YoY Q1 2011 ∆QoQ

Sale Revenue 42,442 32,970 +28.7% 35,382 +20.0%

EBITDA 4,115 1,161 +254.4% 2,234 +84.2%

Refinery business 3,698 766 +382.8% 1,890 +95.7%

Marketing business 417 395 +5.6% 344 +21.1%

Depreciation & Amortization (498) (417) (425)

Other FX and Impairment (105) 89 261

Financial Cost (128) (220) (191)

Pre-tax Profit 3,384 613 +452.0% 1,879 +80.1%

Tax (386) (177) (441)

Net Profit 2,999 436 +587.7% 1,437 +108.6%

EPS 2.31 0.37 1.14

Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,415 (233) +707.4% 888 +59.5%

Adjusted EBITDA 2,700 1,394 +93.7% 1,346 +100.5%

Refinery business 2,283 999 +128.5% 1,002 +127.8%

Marketing business 417 395 +5.6% 344 +21.1%

Unit : Million Baht

Q2 2011 Q2 2010 Q1 2011

M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL

Base GRM 1,988 7.32 1,287 5.46 1,664 9.62

GRM Hedging (143) (0.53) 148 0.63 (168) (0.97)

Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,415 5.21 (233) (0.99) 888 5.12

Total GRM 3,261 12.00 1,202 5.10 2,383 13.77

Other Income 953 3.51 58 0.25 90 0.52

Operating Expenses (516) (1.90) (492) (2.09) (583) (3.37)

EBITDA 3,698 13.61 768 3.26 1,890 10.92

Adjusted EBITDA 2,283 8.40 1,001 4.25 1,002 5.80

Key factors

Crude Run (KBD) 98.2 80.5 62.7

Exchange rate (฿/$) 30.41 32.53 30.68

DB ($/Bbl) 110.72 78.04 100.49

Refinery BU Performance

Other income from PQI compensation of 918 MB

- 29 -

Marketing BU Performance

- 30 -

Q2 2011 Q2 2010 Q1 2011

M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L

Net Retail Margin 503 0.78 532 0.86 423 0.73

Net Industrial Margin 163 0.27 78 0.15 99 0.17

Total MKM 666 0.53 610 0.54 522 0.45

Other Income 166 0.13 168 0.15 190 0.16

Operating Expenses (415) (0.33) (383) (0.34) (368) (0.31)

EBITDA 417 0.33 395 0.35 344 0.29

Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo

o Retail 44.9 214 42.6 205 40.7 194

o Industrial 42.8 204 35.0 169 41.2 197

Total Sale Volume 87.7 418 77.6 374 81.9 391

2.54 $/bbl2.48 $/bbl

Financial Position

- 31 -

Assets 30 Jun 11 31 Dec 10

Cash 2,288 8,504

Trade Accounts Receivable 7,352 6,314

Inventories 20,920 15,058

Other Current Assets 4,480 1,635

Current Assets 35,040 31,511

Investment in Subsidiary 1,111 198

PPE 24,339 22,736

Leasehold Rights 930 954

Other Non-Current Assets 1,807 1,740

Total Assets 63,227 57,139

Inventory increase by 5,862 MBdue to oil price and volume(0.5 M bbl)

Investment in UBE (763 MB) and BSE (150 MB)

PPE increase by 1,603 MB mainly from Solar Farm Phase I and Euro IV Project

Inventory

Investment in Subsidiary

PPE

Unit : Million BahtBCP Only

Financial Position

- 32 -

Bond : PTT & CDDR holders had exercised conversion from CD to common share worth of 1,834 MB

Common Share : Paid-up capital had increased by 193 million shares resulting from CD conversion and warrant exercise

Assets 30 Jun 11 31 Dec 10 Liabilities 30 Jun 11 31 Dec 10

Cash 2,288 8,504 Short Term Loan + Due 1 Yr 6,350 2,587

Trade Accounts Receivable 7,352 6,314 Trade Accounts Payable 8,819 10,094

Inventories 20,920 15,058 Other Current Liabilities 3,105 4,482

Other Current Assets 4,480 1,635 Long Term Loan & Bond 14,728 16,441

Current Assets 35,040 31,511 Other Non current Liabilities 1,068 1,109

Total Liabilities 34,070 34,713

Shareholders' Equity

Investment in Subsidiary 1,111 198 Common Share 1,370 1,177

PPE 24,914 23,311 Premium on Share Capital 11,251 8,462

Leasehold Rights 930 954 Retained Earning 16,536 12,787

Other Non-Current Assets 1,232 1,165

Total Equity 29,157 22,426

Total Assets 63,227 57,139 Total Liabilities & Equity 63,227 57,139

MoF

Unit : Million shares

CDDR

Others

Total

Total CS

PTT

5 0.36%

As of today

137 9.99%

860 62.68%

1,372 100%

1,377 100%

375 27.33%

Shareholders’ Structure

Unit : Million BahtBCP Only

Bangchak Bio Fuel Performance

Profit & Loss

800

232

141 98

Chart Title

Cash

Other Assets

Inventory

PP&E

800

232

141 98

Chart Title

Cash

Other Assets

Inventory

PP&E 519

90

515

147 -

Chart Title

S/T Debt

Trade A/P

Other Liabilities

L/T Debt

Equity

519

90

515

147 -

Chart Title

S/T Debt

Trade A/P

Other Liabilities

L/T Debt

Equity

Total Assets 1,271 MB Total Liabilities 753 MB

Total Equities 519 MB

Balance Sheet

Unit : MB 2Q2011 2Q2010 ∆YoY 1Q2011 ∆QoQ

Sale Revenue 598 523 14% 683 -12%

Cost of Goods Sold (581) (444) 31% (548) 6%

Gross Profit Margin 17 69 -75% 135 -87%

Operating Expenses (5) (5) (5)

LCM 30 - (40) -175%

EBITDA 42 54 -22% 90 -53%

Depreciation (11) (23) (11)

Interest (9) (9) (8)

Net Profit 22 33 -33% 71 -69%

- 33 -

Unit : Million Baht

Financial Ratio

- 34 -

Consolidated

PROFIT RETURN RATIO (1H 2011)

Net Profit Margin % 5.69

Earning per Share Baht 3.5

Return on Equity-ROE % 17.21

Return on Assets-ROA % 7.29

FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO (As of 30 June 11)

Current Ratio times 1.92

AR Day days 14.38

DSCR times 4.75

D/E Ratio times 0.73

Net debt to EBITDA times 1.88

Book Value per Share (BV) Baht 21.43

Agenda



Project Progress


Market Outlook

- 35 -

What’s next in 2H 2011

Crude run 100 KBDEuro IV project completion

Marketing sales volume growth by 6% in 2HFlagship service station completionExpansion of E20 & E85 service stations

BBF Utilization rate above 80%

COD of Solar Farm Project Phase I : 38 MWStart construction of Solar Farm Project Phase II : 32 MW

- 36 -

Oil Market Outlook: Macroeconomics

World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoY)

Global economy is continuing to grow this year, lead by China and India

Source : IMF, June 2011 Re: U.S. actual GDP for Q1 and Q2 is 0.4% and 1.3%

5.14.3 4.5

2.9 2.52.7

1.82.0 1.7

4.0

-0.7

2.9

10.39.6 9.5

10.4

8.2 7.8

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2010 2011 2012

World

US

EU

Japan

China

India

- 37 -

Oil Market Outlook: Key Factors

Key Factor

Global Economy

Hurricane Season

Political Tension

Global Inflation

High inflation would force

government monetary

policy tighten.

If the situation resolved, oil price should correct downward.

Expectations on strong emerging

market help drive world economy.

Uncertainty of U.S. economy and sovereign

debt issues in Europe would continue to drive

swings in risk appetite of oil.

45 percent chance that a major

hurricane would make landfall along

the U.S. coast of the Gulf of Mexico

- 38 -

Oil Market Outlook: Oil Price Forecast

Brent ($/BBL) Q3-11 Q4-11 2011 2012

JBC Energy 114.4 110.7 111.9 109.4

Credit Suisse 107 102 107.8 101.5

Barclays 110 115 112 115

BNP Paribas 116 122 116 126

Deutsche 115 119 114 117

Goldman Sachs 114 119.5 113.5 130

JP Morgan 110 115 112 124

Median 114 115 112 117

Median of previous forecast 110 115 112 114

Oil prices are expected to be strong, driven by strong economic growth in China and India

Source : Reuters Polls, Jul, 27 2011

- 39 -

Oil Market Outlook: Product Cracks

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

$/BBL

Gas Oil

ULG95

HSFO

BCP GRM expected to be healthy around 6 $/BBL

- 40 -

Flagship Service Station

- 41 -

Flagship Service Station

- 42 -

Q & AThank You

or [email protected]

Tel. +662 335 4580, 335 4583

www.bangchak.co.th

click Investor Relations

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