analysts: christopher carson, mark latimer, applied ... · balance sheet. financial dashboard...

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Applied Portfolio Management Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Harshad Phadke and Dakota McMahon Report Date: 5/8/2015 Market Cap (mm) $9,642 Annual Dividend $3.07 2-Yr Beta (S&P 500 Index) 0.82 Return on Capital 9.8% Dividend Yield 7.7% Annualized Alpha -31.3% Compared With: EPS (ttm) $2.33 Price/Earnings (ttm) 17.0 Institutional Ownership 4.2% Williams Companies, Inc. Current Price $39.63 Economic Value-Added (ttm) $627 Short Interest (% of Shares) 3.1% Kinder Morgan, Inc. 12-mo. Target Price $45.00 Free Cash Flow Margin -3.6% Days to Cover Short 8.4 and the S&P 500 Index Business Description Total Revenue 2.5% Free Cash Flow -293.9% EBIT 6.7% Total Invested Capital 25.8% NOPAT 6.7% Total Assets 17.8% Earnings Per Share -11.4% Economic Value-Added -2.5% Dividends Per Share 9.1% Market Value-Added -22.6% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6.5% 8.3% 9.4% 7.5% 9.4% 1.6% 0.6% -6.0% -7.8% -3.6% 4.4% 5.8% 5.6% 4.5% 5.9% 5.7% 4.1% 5.0% 5.5% 7.7% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1.75 3.35 3.04 2.35 2.33 2.25 2.37 2.69 2.89 3.07 2.71 4.55 4.35 3.90 4.63 5.43 0.80 (4.21) (3.04) (4.88) Datasource: Capital IQ ONEOK Partners, L.P. Sector: Energy BUY OKS ONEOK Partners, L.P. engages in the gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural gas in the United States. It operates in three segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing; Natural Gas Liquids; and Natural Gas Pipelines. The Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment gathers and processes natural gas produced from crude oil and natural gas wells located in the Mid-Continent region; and gathers and processes natural gas in the Williston Basin, which spans portions of Montana and North Dakota, and the Powder River Basin of Wyoming. The Natural Gas Liquids segment gathers, treats, Investment Thesis ANNUALIZED 3-YEAR CAGR Since we believe that US economy is reaching the peak of expansionary cycle, we seek to overweight our portfolio with few quality dividend stocks from risk-off sectors. OKS is one such stock that grabbed our attention with its proven record of high dividend yield and healthy balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT are increasing at a faster rate than the revenue. What is even more impressive is the dividend growth rate has trumped the margins. This shows management's commitment towards increasing distribution to its investors. In recent years OKS has positioned itself for growth in the midstream sector by focusing on natural gas liquids. We believe that cash flows from increased capital investment and acquisitions will soon start adding to the bottom line profits. As one of the largest Margins and Yields Operating Margin Per Share Metrics Earnings NOPAT Free Cash Flow Dividends Free Cash Flow Margin Earnings Yield Dividend Yield -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% OKS ^SPX -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% OKS WMB KMI 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Price/Earnings Price/Free Cash Flow $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 EBIT Net Operating Profit After Tax $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Economic Value-Added Market Valued-Added 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ROA ROE ROIC

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Page 1: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

Applied Portfolio ManagementAnalysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer,

Harshad Phadke and Dakota McMahon

Report Date: 5/8/2015Market Cap (mm) $9,642 Annual Dividend $3.07 2-Yr Beta (S&P 500 Index) 0.82Return on Capital 9.8% Dividend Yield 7.7% Annualized Alpha -31.3% Compared With:

EPS (ttm) $2.33 Price/Earnings (ttm) 17.0 Institutional Ownership 4.2% Williams Companies, Inc.Current Price $39.63 Economic Value-Added (ttm) $627 Short Interest (% of Shares) 3.1% Kinder Morgan, Inc.

12-mo. Target Price $45.00 Free Cash Flow Margin -3.6% Days to Cover Short 8.4 and the S&P 500 Index

Business Description

Total Revenue 2.5% Free Cash Flow -293.9%EBIT 6.7% Total Invested Capital 25.8%

NOPAT 6.7% Total Assets 17.8%Earnings Per Share -11.4% Economic Value-Added -2.5%

Dividends Per Share 9.1% Market Value-Added -22.6%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

6.5% 8.3% 9.4% 7.5% 9.4%1.6% 0.6% -6.0% -7.8% -3.6%4.4% 5.8% 5.6% 4.5% 5.9%5.7% 4.1% 5.0% 5.5% 7.7%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1.75 3.35 3.04 2.35 2.332.25 2.37 2.69 2.89 3.072.71 4.55 4.35 3.90 4.635.43 0.80 (4.21) (3.04) (4.88)

Datasource: Capital IQ

ONEOK Partners, L.P. Sector: Energy BUYOKS

ONEOK Partners, L.P. engages in the gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural gas in the United States. It operates in three segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing; Natural Gas Liquids; and Natural Gas Pipelines. The Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment gathers and processes natural gas produced from crude oil and natural gas wells located in the Mid-Continent region; and gathers and processes natural gas in the Williston Basin, which spans portions of Montana and North Dakota, and the Powder River Basin of Wyoming. The Natural Gas Liquids segment gathers, treats,

Investment Thesis

ANNUALIZED 3-YEAR CAGR

Since we believe that US economy is reaching the peak of expansionary cycle, we seek to overweight our portfolio with few quality dividend stocks from risk-off sectors. OKS is one such stock that grabbed our attention with its proven record of high dividend yield and healthy balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT are increasing at a faster rate than the revenue. What is even more impressive is the dividend growth rate has trumped the margins. This shows management's commitment towards increasing distribution to its investors. In recent years OKS has positioned itself for growth in the midstream sector by focusing on natural gas liquids. We believe that cash flows from increased capital investment and acquisitions will soon start adding to the bottom line profits. As one of the largest

Margins and Yields

Operating Margin

Per Share Metrics

Earnings

NOPATFree Cash Flow

Dividends

Free Cash Flow MarginEarnings YieldDividend Yield

-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%15%20%

OKS ^SPX

-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

OKS WMB KMI

020406080

100120140160180200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Price/Earnings Price/Free Cash Flow

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EBIT Net Operating Profit After Tax

$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Economic Value-Added Market Valued-Added

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ROA ROE ROIC

Page 2: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

Recommendation: Buy  Market Cap: $10,647.5 million 

Current Price: $39.63

Sector: Energy  Dividend Yield: 7.53% 12‐Month Target: 45.00

Annual Dividend: $3.07  P/E Ratio: 17.00 Beta: 0.31 

 

Highlights

Low 1‐yr Beta of 0.31 with a P/E within reasonable range of 12‐18 

Strong commitment to increasing dividends 

High Dividend yield of 7.53%, due to a sharp price drop in recent year 

Well positioned to take advantage of expansion in use of natural gas  

New pipeline construction from Permian Basin to Mexico to open a huge market 

At a current price of $42, and an intrinsic value of $77.93 for FCF model and $159 for DDM, 

OKS is undervalued by 85.55% and 378.57% respectively 

 

Macroeconomic Outlook

There  is  strong  evidence  that  the 

employment  picture  in  the  United 

States  continues  to  improve.  A  strong 

dollar is weighing on exports which may 

hurt  domestic  producers,  however, 

cheap  commodities  is  working  to 

suppress  an  increase  in  trade  deficit. 

Manufacturing  sales,  personal  income, 

non‐farm  payrolls  and  industrial 

production  are  all  signaling  that 

currently the economy is in a state of expansion. However, consumer sentiment has a role to play 

in the direction of the economy going forward. If consumers are happy with economic conditions 

they will act  like  it by ramping up purchases etc. The reading of consumer sentiment gives us 

pause, coupled with a rise in unit labor cost gives us an indication that we are in the middle of an 

expansion cycle, means that while things are going to keep growing, we predict that they will 

grow at a slower rate, but that we do not expected an actual decline in the near future ‐ which is 

what  our  diffusion  index  say. While we  do  have  our  hesitations  about  the  future,  nothing 

Page 3: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

indicates a certain  immediate  impending disaster. Our conclusion would be that we are  in the 

middle of an expansion, but should be vigilant in continuing to monitor leading indicators. 

 

Business Description  

ONEOK Partners, L.P. engages in the gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural 

gas in the United States. It operates in three segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing; 

Natural  Gas  Liquids;  and  Natural  Gas  Pipelines.  The  Natural  Gas  Gathering  and  Processing 

segment gathers and processes natural gas produced from crude oil and natural gas wells located 

in the Mid‐Continent region; and gathers and processes natural gas in the Williston Basin, which 

spans portions of Montana and North Dakota, and  the Powder River Basin of Wyoming. The 

Natural Gas  Liquids  segment  gathers,  treats,  fractionates,  and  transports  natural  gas  liquids 

(NGLs), as well as stores, markets and distributes NGL products primarily in Oklahoma, Kansas, 

Texas, New Mexico, and the Rocky Mountain region.  

This  segment  also  owns  the  Federal  Energy  Regulatory  Commission  (FERC)‐regulated  NGLs 

gathering and distribution pipelines in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, Montana, North 

Dakota, Wyoming, and Colorado; terminal and storage facilities in Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, and 

Illinois; and FERC‐regulated NGLs distribution and refined petroleum product pipelines in Kansas, 

Missouri, Nebraska,  Iowa,  Illinois,  and  Indiana. The Natural Gas Pipelines  segment owns and 

operates  regulated  natural  gas  transmission  pipelines  and  natural  gas  storage  facilities;  and 

provides  interstate natural gas  transportation and  storage  services. This  segment’s  interstate 

natural gas pipeline assets transport natural gas through FERC‐regulated interstate natural gas 

pipelines  in  North  Dakota,  Minnesota,  Wisconsin,  Illinois,  Indiana,  Kentucky,  Tennessee, 

Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico. It also transports intrastate natural gas through its assets in 

Oklahoma; and owns underground natural gas storage facilities in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. 

ONEOK Partners GP, L.L.C. serves as the general partner of ONEOK Partners, L.P. The company 

was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma. 

Page 4: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

The adjacent graph shows the sharp 

drop in stock price of OKS in last one 

year. OKS stock has  lost about 21%, 

whereas S&P 500  index gained over 

10% during the same period. 

 

 

Investment Thesis

 

Since we  believe  that US  economy  is  reaching  the  peak  of  expansionary  cycle, we  seek  to 

overweight our portfolio with few quality dividend stocks from risk‐off sectors. OKS is one such 

stock that grabbed our attention with its proven record of high dividend yield and healthy balance 

sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as 

EBIT and NOPAT are increasing at a faster rate than the revenue. What is even more impressive 

is the dividend growth rate has trumped the margins. This shows management's commitment 

towards  increasing distribution  to  its  investors.  In  recent  years OKS has positioned  itself  for 

growth  in the midstream sector by focusing on natural gas  liquids. We believe that cash flows 

from  increased  capital  investment and acquisitions will  soon  start adding  to  the bottom  line 

profits. As one of the largest independent service provider in midcontinent, OKS is well positioned 

to take advantage of American energy revolution. Its legacy assets include a large system of gas 

gathering and transportation assets in the Mid‐Continent.  

As more than two third of the margins are generated through fixed fee based gas storage and 

transportation services, OKS’ margins have a little cushion against recent drop in the oil and gas 

prices. Since the commodity risk is only partially hedged, we see stressed profit margins in near 

future, but the long term growth story is still intact. Through its ownership in six key oil and gas 

basins, natural gas gathering processing units, and vast network of pipelines and storage systems, 

OKS has become a dominant market supplier of natural gas to the domestic and  international 

buyers. With more  than $5 billion  in growth projects underway and entering service  through 

2015, OKS will further cement its position as a dominant player in NGL midstream services. Given 

the strong growth potential and large dividend yield, we believe that OKS will be a great addition 

to student portfolio. 

 

 

 

Page 5: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

 

 

 

 

 

Overview of OKS Assets

The following image below depicts prominent shale gas plays and basins in the mid‐continent of 

North  America.  Given  OKS’s  revenues  are  solely  from  the  United  States,  it  is  important  to 

understand OKS’s operations within the mid‐continent region. A particular focus will be centered 

on the Williston basin in North Dakota and the Permian Basin in Texas. 

The  red  line  to  the  left  leads  to  the 

Williston Basin which will be the topic 

of discussion  for  this paragraph. OKS 

has a strong foothold in the Williston 

Basin  which  is  one  of  the  largest 

untapped  Basins  in  North  America. 

Specifically,  OKS  is  the  largest 

independent natural gas gatherer and 

processor  in  the  Williston  Basin 

serving 60% of the five million acres. 

Approximately half of producers  rigs 

in  the Williston  Basin  drill  in  OKS  3 

million acre plot. Furthermore, drilling 

is  economical  in  the Williston  Basin 

with crude oil prices  (WTI) as  low as 

$45  per  barrel.  OKS  has  1.4  to  1.9 

billion  in  capital  investments 

underway in the Williston basin to be 

completed by Q3 of 2016. These investments will help OKS establish its pipeline infrastructure 

and increase its volume fee based earnings. 

Williston Basin: which will be the topic of discussion for this paragraph. OKS has a strong foothold 

in the Williston Basin which is one of the largest untapped Basins in North America. Specifically, 

OKS is the largest independent natural gas gatherer and processor in the Williston Basin serving 

Page 6: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

60% of the five million acres. Approximately half of producers rigs in the Williston Basin drill in 

OKS 3 million acre plot. Furthermore, drilling is economical in the Williston Basin with crude oil 

prices (WTI) as low as $45 per barrel. OKS has 1.4 to 1.9 billion in capital investments underway 

in the Williston basin to be completed by Q3 of 2016. These investments will help OKS establish 

its pipeline infrastructure and increase its volume fee based earnings.  

Permian Basin in west Texas: The Permian Basin is one of the top five reserves in North America 

with more than two dozen oil and gas wells in current operation. Similar to the Williston basin 

above; drilling is economical in the Permian Basin with crude oil prices (WTI) as low as $47 per 

barrel. More recently, OKS has established itself within this region to take advantage of exporting 

supplied gas to untapped markets in northern Mexico.  

Potential  Years  of  Drilling:  Following  the 

discussion above of OKS and  the shale gas plays 

and basins the company has established  itself  in; 

an understanding of the potential years of drilling 

in each of the Basins is crucial for any sustainable 

competitive  advantages  for  the  company.  The 

Bakken shale and Williston Basin in North Dakota 

are  estimated  to  provide  up  to  35  years  of 

potential drilling. In addition, The Permian Basin in 

west  Texas  is  estimated  to  provide  80  years  of 

drilling. As  a  result, both of  these  regions  leave 

OKS well positioned for future growth.  

 

 

Historical Performance

3YR Compound Average Growth Rates 

With  EBIT  and  NOPAT  growing 

faster  than  total  revenue  OKS 

show  operating  and  tax 

efficiencies.  Earnings  per  share 

post a value of ‐11.4%. This is due 

to  the  fact  that  net  income 

growth has been outpaced by the growth in the number of Total Common Shares over the last 3 

years. Dividends per  share  is a  strong value of 9.1%  further  indicating OKS’s  commitment  to 

Page 7: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

increasing dividends. Free cash flow has a three year CAGR of roughly ‐300%. With total invested 

capital around 26% and a NOPAT of 6.7%, we would expect Free Cash Flow to be negative but 

not to the extent of 300%. Later in the paper will be a discussion on why this is the case for OKS 

and how the capital growth projects for OKS will provide. Lastly, although Economic Value‐Added 

has  decreased,  Market  Value‐Added  has  taken  a  more  substantial  hit  providing  a  more 

undervalued entry point for investors.  

 

Revenue and Margins Analysis

 

 

The above graph depicts  five key metrics  for OKS over an eight year span. To begin, revenue 

growth for OKS has been positive each year with the exception of 2009 and 2012. It is important 

to note that despite the fluctuations in revenue growth, OKS has been able to maintain relatively 

stable gross, EBIT, and net income margins over this same span. The increase in EBIT and gross 

margin  from 2013 to 2014  indicates that a greater percentage of revenue  is available to  flow 

toward bottom line profits, then to free cash flow that support OKS intrinsic value, and back to 

investors in the form of dividends. Furthermore, the graph illustrates OKS strong commitment to 

dividends as the company has been increasing dividends per share each year over the past eight. 

Page 8: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

Effect of Capital Projects on Profitability and Value addition

 

 

 

ROA, ROE, and ROIC have been on a downtrend since 2011. This is a result of net income being 

outpaced  by  an  increase  in  total  assets,  shareholder  equity,  and NOPAT  respectively.  These 

metrics are currently near historical averages  in 2009 and 2010. With  large  increases  in  total 

invested capital from 2012 to 2014, outpacing the values for NOPAT, free cash flow has taken a 

dive in this period. MVA has followed in a similar suit to EVA until 2014. The substantial fall in 

MVA compared to EVA provides a more undervalued entry point for investors. 

 

 

Page 9: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

 

 

 

 

Debt and Liquidity Analysis

 

 

 

The above graph exhibits six key figures of OKS’s balance sheet for the duration of past 10 years. 

It is evident from the graph that both total equity and total debt are on a secular uptrend during 

this period. What is important is notice is that OKS has successfully maintained the debt‐to‐equity 

ratio in a tight range of 1.24 to 1.78. At the end of FY 2014, this ratio was 1.39. This shows that 

OKS’s management  is committed to maintain the debt at a manageable  level. Next  looking at 

debt‐to‐asset ratio, which remained constant over the last ten years, we can confirm that most 

of the debt  is used on purchase tangible capital assets, and not to pay the dividends or share 

repurchase program of OKS. The current ratio has come down to 0.46, which is historically at the 

lowest point in last decade. But for the company like OKS this should not be a point of concern. 

With a $1.7 billion open line of credit that can be extended to $2.4 billion (matures in 2019), OKS 

Page 10: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

has access to plenty of short term liquidity. Lastly, the times interest covered ratio is a measure 

of a company's ability to honor  its debt payments. It may be calculated as EBIT divided by the 

total  interest  payable.  According  to  company’s  latest  10‐K  report,  OKS’s  management  is 

committed to keep this ratio above level of 4. With such high level of interest coverage ratio, we 

are  confident  that OKS  can honor  its  interest payment obligations  and  there  is no  threat of 

bankruptcy at least in the foreseeable future. 

Capital projects

Completed and planned capital projects

 

OKS  completed  $8  bil  of  capital 

growth projects and acquisitions from 

2006 – 2014. There are nearly $3 bil 

capital‐growth  projects  in  progress. 

OKS  has  not  only  continued  to 

complete  capital growth projects on 

time and on budget, but also doubled 

unannounced capital growth projects 

in 2014. 

 

 

Purpose of the Capital Projects

There are several reasons why OKS  is heavily  investing  in these capital projects. Few of these 

reasons are explained below: 

OKS is building the first‐ever NGL pipeline to transport NGLs out of the Williston Basin. 24% of 

North Dakota’s natural gas production is flared, and North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) 

has set policy targets to reduce flaring to 15% by 1Q2016 and 5% – 10% by the 4Q2020. OKS 

controls 60% of the 5 million acres are of the Williston basins, and is a natural monopoly in the 

region. 

The Environmental Protection Agency’s CO2 limits for power plants are likely to accelerate the 

decline  of  coal  for  electricity  generation, which will  increased  demand  for  natural  gas‐fired 

electric generation. OKS will be greatly benefited due to these capital projects, as approximately 

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35  existing  coal‐fired,  electric  power  generation  plants within  20 miles  of  OKS’  natural  gas 

pipelines. 

OKS is also one of the very few midstream gas sector companies to get the access to West Texas 

natural gas region and is well positioned to take advantage of the increasing demand of natural 

gas in Mexico. 

 

SWOT Analysis Strengths 

Pipelines are the Cheapest Transportation Method 

Pipelines that transport  liquid across great distances are 30% cheaper than rail transportation 

and 90% cheaper than transportation by trucks. Pipeline use cuts down on greenhouse gases and 

expenses,  which  should  decrease  the  cost  and  demand  the  demand  for  liquid  that  are 

transported by pipeline. 

High Domestic availability of Natural Gas 

Plenty of natural gas is found in the United States. This geographic advantage make natural gas 

a realistic wholesale solution to domestic fuel needs. It also limits the need for imported fuels, 

which save money for government and industries. "Domestic Geographic Locations" will have a 

long‐term positive impact on this entity, which adds to its value. 

Advantages of Master Limited Partnership 

MLPs  do  not  pay  corporate  taxes  on  profits  which  is  a  huge  advantage  over  corporately 

structured companies. Secondly, owners of a partnership are taxed only once and not multiple 

times as in the corporate model. Capital gains are considered returns on capital. Lastly, Capital 

gain taxes are deferred until the unitholder sells the units. 

Recurring Revenue Business 

A fee based business in a volatile industry, or recurring revenue businesses in general, can reduce 

risk and make business planning easier over  the  long  term. Services  to companies  in volatile 

industries will have lower risk, because they spread the risk over a group of customers that have 

even more diverse products under them. 

Weaknesses 

Low Geographic Diversification (Located only in North America) 

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Diversification into other countries would involve currency headwinds. 

Charges on fees 

OKS is limited to what it may charge for its services and fees. OKS make a majority of it’s profit 

from fees and services. 

 

Opportunities 

Low Price Helps Increase Demand for Natural Gas 

As natural gas production becomes more efficient and  the EPA  imposes more  restrictions on 

carbon dioxide measures, which directly affects alternatives to natural gas like coal, natural gas 

will become more widespread.  

Expanding Natural Gas Demand 

The discovery of techniques to get natural gas out of shale formations  is  leading to a boom  in 

supply, which  is decreasing the price of natural gas. When the price of natural gas decreases, 

especially relative to the price of oil, demand increases, because consumers switch to the lower 

cost fuel. 

Low Prices for Natural Gas 

The lower natural gas prices go, the more competitive it becomes versus coal on a BTU (energy) 

level. 

Threats 

MLP Regulations  

MLP’s may change at any point, which would result in loss of tax advantage. 

Volatile Commodity Prices 

Volatile commodity prices increase the risk to the company, since a sudden change in commodity 

prices can hurt profits. It also makes long‐term forecast more difficult and long‐term investments 

to meet demand more difficult. According  to OKS’s 10‐K  report, 33% of  its  commodities are 

hedged. So this is less of a problem for OKS, but still something to be concerned about. 

 

Porter Five Forces Analysis

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Potential of new entrants into industry (Threat Level: Low‐Medium) 

OKS has an advantage in how much is needed to create a similar company. A huge investment is 

required so this would be a barrier for new entrants. This particular sector is also highly regulated, 

meaning for a company to become involved, they must have a great deal of understanding on 

how the industry works in order to be successful. 

Threat of substitute products (Threat Level: Low) 

The threat level of substitute products are low. Substitutes are available, but natural gas will lead. 

Other energy sources will still take years until it can be made as affordable as Natural Gas. The 

EPA has also stepped up enforcement against carbon dioxide emissions which will benefit the 

natural gas sector and dissolve the demand for coal. 

Power of suppliers (Threat Level: High) 

The high threat for power of suppliers is due to how contracts are negotiated. OKS is contracted 

through producers and the producers could choose to work with another company other than 

OKS. Since OKS  is  seen as a monopoly  in  the  industry  this  could attract  the attention of  the 

government and potentially place restrictions on OKS. 

Power of customers (Threat Level: Medium) 

A majority  of  business  that  OKS  does  is  business  to  business.  Businesses  could  have more 

influence rather than single  individuals. Buyers could seek alternative means of transportation 

other than what OKS provides which could also be a problem. Fortunately, OKS has a monopoly 

in  their  geographic  locations which  allows  them  attract more  businesses  than  a  lower  level 

company. 

Competition in the industry (Threat Level: Medium) 

OKS secured a deal in Texas for exclusive rights to move Natural Gas. OKS also secured rights to 

the Williston Basin  in South Dakota  in which  the own a 60%  interest  in untapped wells. OKS 

currently has a non‐governmental monopoly within the natural gas sector. 

 

U.S. Energy Information Administration Short Term Energy Outlook

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The  chart  on  right  shows  short  term 

outlook of  the Natural Gas Production 

and Imports in the United States. As the 

net  imports  expected  to  keep 

decreasing  through  2016,  the 

production of Natural Gas  is expected 

to keep  increasing, though at a slower 

rate. Most of this production increase is 

expected to come from the non‐Gulf of 

Mexico areas, and production from the 

Federal Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain almost constant. The total production is expected 

to continue to grow through 2016 which is a good sign for OKS. 

 

The chart on  left shows  the Natural 

Gas  consumption  in  the  United 

States. We  can  see  that  the energy 

consumption peaks in the winter due 

to colder weather, and drops  in  the 

summer  as  the weather warms  up. 

EIA  forecasts  that  the  Natural  Gas 

Consumption  will  continue  to 

increase in near future. This increase 

will be mainly driven by the increase 

in the usage of natural gas in electric power generation and industries. The usage of natural gas 

in residential and commercial space is expected to decrease. 

 

The chart on the right shows the Natural 

Gas Storage in the United States. Again 

we can see a wave with peaks in storage 

being  in  the  summer when  less  gas  is 

being  used,  and  drops  in  the  winter 

when more energy  is used  for heating. 

OKS  receives  about  ⅔  of  its  total 

revenue  from  the  fees charged  for  the 

transportation  and  storage  of  the 

natural  gas.  The  stable  outlook  of  the 

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natural gas consumption and storage shows that OKS will continue to generate stable fee based 

revenues at least in the foreseeable future. 

 

 

 

 

On the left is a chart showing the United 

States  Electricity  Generation  by  fuel 

sectors and forecasts the next 2 years. 

The  share  of  Coal  powered  electricity 

generation  has  dropped  around  10% 

over the  last 7 years. About 7% of this 

share has been replaced by natural gas 

powered  electricity  generation.  As 

natural  gas  displaces  coal  for  power 

generation,  the usage of natural gas  is 

expected to continue to rise over the next year and half. 

 

On the right is the chart of the United 

States  Natural  Gas  Prices  from  Jan 

2011  to  Jan  2017  (projected).  The 

chart  has  two  components: 

Residential price and Henry Hub spot 

rate. Henry Hub spot rate is used for 

the  commodity derivatives  contract 

pricing.  Again,  the  Residential 

natural  gas  prices  come  in  waves 

peaking in the summer and dropping 

in the winter. But as you can see, there is no correlation between the Residential prices and the 

Henry Hub spot price. 

 

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This  chart  on  left  shows  that  the 

Henry  Hub  natural  gas  spot  price 

averaged $2.83/MMBtu in March. EIA 

expects monthly average  spot prices 

to  remain  less  than  $4/MMBtu 

through  the  remainder  of  the 

forecast. Current options and futures 

prices  imply that market participants 

place the lower and upper bounds for 

the  95%  confidence  interval  for  July 

2015 contracts at $1.90/MMBtu and $4.00/MMBtu, respectively.  

This  chart  shows  the  West  Texas 

Intermediate  Crude  Oil  Prices.  Oil 

companies  provide  natural  gas,  the 

important  commodity  for OKS, which 

is why it is important to keep an eye on 

the WTI oil prices. From the chart we 

can  see  that  the  WTI  prices  are 

expected  to  remain  stable  now 

through  Jan  2017.  Another  positive 

factor for OKS stock. 

Hedging Activities

OKS is sensitive to changes in natural gas, crude oil 

and NGL prices. The chart on  the  right  shows  the 

gross margins for OKS over the last 5 years and also 

the company report forecast for 2015. OKS derives 

their revenues  in two ways; sales of natural gases 

they  collect  and  process  and  their  fee  based 

operations. As you can see a majority of OKS gross 

margin  comes  from  fee  based  operations,  which 

derive  from  storage  and  transportation  services. 

Commodities are the gross margins from the sale of 

natural  gases  they  collected  and  processed. 

Differentials represent the portion of commodities 

that  are  transformed  into  other  gases  such  as 

Butane, Propane and Ethane. Commodities and differentials make up less than a third of OKS’s 

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gross margin but, as you can see from the chart below, they only hedge 80% of that third. This 

means OKS only hedges around 27% of their gross margins. The rest of their income is from fees, 

which can’t be hedged. OKS’s  revenue  from  fees are based on contracts  that has an average 

length of 7 years, so they are in no danger of losing income in their fee based revenue. 

 

 

 

The  table  above  sets  forth  OKS’  Natural  Gas  Gathering  and  processing  segment’s  hedging 

information for the period indicated: 

OKS has forecast for how they believe the change in commodity prices will affect their margins. 

Their forecasts are as follows: a $0.01 per‐gallon change in the composite price of NGLs would 

change 12‐month forward net margin by approximately $3.0 million; a $1.00 per‐barrel change 

in  the price of  crude oil would  change 12‐month  forward net margin by  approximately $1.6 

million; and a $0.10 per‐MMBtu change  in  the price of residue natural gas would change 12‐

month forward net margin by approximately $5.2 million. 

Forecasting Assumptions

 

 

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Revenue Growth: Revenues for OKS’s NGL’s segment are derived primarily from nondiscretionary 

fee‐based services that they provide to their customers and from the physical optimization of 

their assets. Their fee‐based services have increased due primarily to new supply connections; 

expansion of existing connections; and the completion of capital projects, including the Bakken 

NGL Pipeline and the West Texas LPG acquisition. However, NGL storage revenue may be affected 

by price volatility and forward pricing of NGL physical contracts versus the price of NGLs on the 

spot market. We’ve kept a conservative margin of safety with our revenue growth expectation. 

Gross Margin: We observed in OKS’s past that gross margin has been pretty stable. We believe 

this trend will continue into the future and the gross margin will not fluctuate too much from the 

mean, this is why we kept it at a 16% average. 

Operating Margin: From 2010 to 2014 OKS’s operating margin has stayed within a 6.5% to 9.4% 

range. We believe that the historical average of 8.2% is sufficient in our forecasting of operating 

margin.   

Net Margin: As  you  can  see, OKS’s net margin has  stayed within a  tight  range with minimal 

movement  in either direction. We expect Net Margin  to  fluctuate very  little based off of  the 

historical performance, which is why we left it at 5.1%. 

Common Shares Growth: There was no  indication  in the 10‐K that OKS will aggressively sell or 

buy‐back shares so we kept it at the historical average 5.3%. 

Dividend Growth: OKS’s 10‐K  reported a 14%  increase  in expected dividend growth  in 2015, 

dividends declared compared with 2014. Projected 2.25‐cent‐per‐share‐per‐quarter increase for 

2015.The 10‐K also reported a 12% to 15% expected average annual dividend growth between 

2014 and 2017. 

 

 

Cash and equivalents: We have  forecasted cash and equivalents  to slightly  increase based on 

their investments beginning to generate money. Therefore, we have raised cash and equivalents 

from 0.1% to a perpetual growth rate of 1.5%. 

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Total Receivables: Based off of  the 10‐K we do not  foresee any  increase or decrease  in  total 

receivables and based off of the historical trend only 2014 has been an outlier. Following the 

same rates other than 2014, we believe that total receivables will remain around the historical 

average of 8.4%   

Inventory: Since OKS  is an energy company  it requires minimum  inventory so any fluctuations 

will be small and not really affect the average. As you can see from 2010 to 2014 that inventory 

has only dropped 2.1% overall. We expect inventory to remain close to the historical average of 

2.3%. 

 

 

Total Current Assets: OKS has shown no nominal expectations to increase or decrease its total 

current assets, so we left it at its historical average of 13.4% 

Net PPE: OKS has currently invested 500 Million into its Texas pipeline. For this reason we have 

increased Net  PPE  in  2015  to  100%,  and  as more  of  its  other  pipelines  and  assets  become 

operational we see Net PPE to stay around a long term rate of 105%.  

Total Assets: In unison with Net PPE, we’ve increased total assets to 125% in 2015. We expect 

total assets to briefly increase then level off until 2019 as OKS’s pipeline investments come online. 

This is why we a long term rate of 130%. 

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Payables and Accruals: There was an overall fluctuation of 2.0% from 2010 to 2014. This small 

movement within a 5 year period shows that payables and accruals are stable and we do not 

expect any major jumps from the historical average. This is why we left it at 10.3%. 

Total Current Liabilities: We  forecast that OKS will begin decreasing  its total current  liabilities 

starting  in 2015 at 21% then  leveling off at 11%  in 2019.This trend  is shows what will happen 

when OKS starts to pay back its short term debt. 

Total Debt: We expect OKS to decrease its total debt starting in 2015. Beginning at 66% in 2015 

and dropping to 55% in 2019. OKS’s total debt will continue decrease as revenue begins to pick 

up. OKS’s 10‐K indicates that revenue will increase in 2015/2016 which correlates well with the 

expected drop in total debt. 

Total Equity: We bumped up total equity to 50% based off of OKS retiring some of  its current 

debt and the forecasted increase of revenue in the near future. 

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

 

When calculating OKS’s cost of capital, we decided to use a risk  free rate of 1.895%, which  is 

based on the most recent 10‐Year yield of U.S. Treasury Bonds. The 5‐Year beta of 0.29 was lower 

than  the 2‐Year beta of 0.82  so we modified our beta  to 0.50  for  a more  realistic modeling 

assumption. We set the market risk premium to 6.0% based off current market conditions. We 

also used a conservative 2.0% long‐term growth rate to stress the model. Using information from 

OKS’s most recent 10‐K report we calculated the cost of debt to be 4.0%, and cost of equity to be 

4.895%. This leaves us with a low WACC of 4.492%. 

Free Cash Flow Valuation

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As you can see  from  the FCF valuation model, OKS has a current expected undervaluation of 

$36.89 in 2015. Bear in mind this FCF analysis is based on extremely conservative estimates, so 

hypothetically  this  the minimum undervaluation. Also, notice  that OKS has  consistently been 

undervalued since 2009, but this could be a characteristic of this particular sector. 

Dividend Discount Model Valuation

 

As per the DDM above, OKS is currently undervalued by $118.11, which is an undervaluation of 

74%. This relatively high undervaluation even includes a more conservative 0.50 alternative beta 

and not the 0.29 5‐Year beta. This stresses the model and allows for a better understanding of 

how  this model shapes up. As you can see  the Dividend Yield  is a  favorable 7.7% with a  low 

required  return  of  4.9%. When  OKS was  compared  to  other  companies  in  the  sector,  OKS 

currently has the best risk adjusted returns. 

 

Page 22: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

OKS. Datasource: CapitalIQ Income Statement Forecast, Page 1 of 1 Copyright Robert A. Weigand, Ph.D., 2013

OKS ONEOK Partners, L.P. Sector Energy2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average Manual 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Total Revenue 6,474 8,676 11,323 10,182 11,869 12,192 13.5% N/A 12,435 12,684 13,192 13,719 13,994Cost of Goods Sold 5,355 7,531 9,745 8,540 10,222 10,089

Gross Profit 1,119 1,145 1,577 1,642 1,647 2,103 14.9% 16.0% 1,990 2,029 2,111 2,195 2,239SG&A Expense 362 363 414 433 465 599R&D Expense 0 0 0 0 0 0Dep. & Amort. 164 174 178 203 237 291Other Oper. Exp. 5,931 8,108 10,382 9,226 10,980 11,049

Operating Income 544 568 940 956 889 1,142 8.2% N/A 1,022 1,043 1,084 1,128 1,150Interest Expense (206) (204) (223) (206) (237) (282)Other Non-Oper. Exp. 107 106 127 142 151 57

EBT ex-Unusuals 445 470 844 892 803 917

Total Unusual Exp. 3 19 (1) 7 12 7Earnings Before Tax 448 488 843 899 815 924

Income Tax Expense 13 15 13 10 11 13Net Income 338 355 682 660 528 566 5.1% N/A 639 652 678 705 719

Basic EPS 1.80 1.75 3.35 3.04 2.35 2.33 2.49 2.41 2.38 2.35 2.28Total Common Shares 188 203 204 217 225 243 5.3% N/A 256 270 284 300 316Dividends Per Share 2.18 2.25 2.37 2.69 2.89 3.07 7.1% N/A 3.16 3.19 3.23 3.29 3.39

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average Manual 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

1. Revenue Growth 34.0% 30.5% -10.1% 16.6% 2.7% 13.5% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0%2. Gross Margin 13.2% 13.9% 16.1% 13.9% 17.3% 14.9% 16.0%3. Operating Margin 6.5% 8.3% 9.4% 7.5% 9.4% 8.2%4. Net Margin 4.1% 6.0% 6.5% 4.4% 4.6% 5.1%5. Common Shares Growth 8.1% 0.5% 6.5% 3.5% 8.3% 5.3%6. Dividend Growth 3.4% 5.1% 13.7% 7.4% 6.2% 7.1% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

4. Net Income 5. Total Common Shares 6. Dividends Per Share

Historical Growth and Margins Forecast Defaults to Historical Avg. User Can Enter 1 Manual Avg. or Year-by-Year Values

1. Total Revenue 2. Gross Profit 3. Operating Income

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OKS. Datasource: CapitalIQ Balance Sheet Forecast, Page 1 of 2 Copyright Robert A. Weigand, Ph.D., 2013

OKS ONEOK Partners, L.P. Sector EnergyASSETS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average Manual 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Cash and Equivalents 3 1 35 537 135 43 1.4% N/A 12 63 132 137 210Short-Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Cash & ST Invest. 3 1 35 537 135 43

Total Receivables 657 820 926 930 1,112 744 8.4% N/A 1,051 1,072 1,115 1,159 1,182Inventory 218 317 202 236 242 190 2.3% N/A 282 288 300 312 318Prepaid Expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Current Assets 1,102 1,279 1,306 1,892 1,583 1,086 13.4% N/A 1,669 1,702 1,770 1,841 1,878

Gross PPE 6,354 5,857 6,964 8,585 10,755 13,378Accumulated Depr. (972) (1,100) (1,260) (1,441) (1,653) (1,842)

Net PPE 5,381 4,757 5,704 7,144 9,102 11,536 69.3% 105.0% 12,435 13,318 13,851 14,405 14,693

Long-Term Investments 765 1,188 1,223 1,221 1,230 1,133Goodwill 397 397 397 397 489 489

Total Assets 7,953 7,920 8,947 10,959 12,863 14,635 101.3% 130.0% 15,544 16,489 17,149 17,835 18,192

LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 694 882 1,090 1,210 1,396 1,003Accounts Payable 694 852 1,049 1,058 1,303 911 Note: Forecasting Payables + Accruals together in row 19 belowAccrued Expenses 0 30 41 152 93 92 10.3% N/A 1,285 1,311 1,363 1,418 1,446Short-Term Debt 523 430 0 0 0 1,055

Total Current Liabilities 2,047 1,974 1,889 1,570 1,706 2,336 17.7% N/A 2,611 2,537 2,243 1,921 1,539

Long-Term Debt 2,822 2,582 3,516 4,804 6,045 6,038 44.4% N/A 8,207 8,372 8,311 8,232 7,696Pension Benefits 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,345 3,011 3,516 4,804 6,045 7,094

Total Liabilities 4,943 4,643 5,500 6,496 7,864 8,516 Note: Forecasting ST Debt + LT Debt together in row 22 above

Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0Common Stock & APIC 2,942 3,171 3,386 4,406 4,882 5,831Retained Earnings 0 0 0 0 0 0Treasury Stock 0 0 0 0 0 0Total Common Equity 2,920 3,177 3,334 4,306 4,824 5,739

Total Equity 3,010 3,277 3,447 4,464 4,999 6,119 40.9% 50.0% 6,218 6,342 6,596 6,860 6,997Total Liab. and Equity 7,953 7,920 8,947 10,959 12,863 14,635

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average Manual 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E1. Cash and Equivalents 0.0% 0.3% 5.3% 1.1% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5%2. Total Receivables 9.5% 8.2% 9.1% 9.4% 6.1% 8.4%3. Inventory 3.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 1.6% 2.3%

Percent of Sales Forecast Defaults to Historical Avg. User Can Enter 1 Manual Avg. or Year-by-Year Values

2. Total Receivables1. Cash and Equivalents 3. Inventory

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OKS. Datasource: CapitalIQ Balance Sheet Forecast, Page 2 of 2 Copyright Robert A. Weigand, Ph.D., 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average Manual 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E4. Total Current Assets 14.7% 11.5% 18.6% 13.3% 8.9% 13.4%5. Net PPE 54.8% 50.4% 70.2% 76.7% 94.6% 69.3% 105.0% 100.0%6. Total Assets 91.3% 79.0% 107.6% 108.4% 120.0% 101.3% 130.0% 125.0%7. Payables and Accruals 10.2% 9.6% 11.9% 11.8% 8.2% 10.3%8. Total Current Liabilities 22.8% 16.7% 15.4% 14.4% 19.2% 17.7% 21.0% 20.0% 17.0% 14.0% 11.0%9. Total Debt 34.7% 31.0% 47.2% 50.9% 58.2% 44.4% 66.0% 66.0% 63.0% 60.0% 55.0%10. Total Equity 37.8% 30.4% 43.8% 42.1% 50.2% 40.9% 50.0%

7. Payables and Accruals 8. Total Current Liabilities 9. Total Debt

10. Total Equity

4. Total Current Assets 5. Net PPE 6. Total Assets

Percent of Sales Forecast Defaults to Historical Avg. User Can Enter 1 Manual Avg. or Year-by-Year Values

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OKS. Datasource: CapitalIQ Financial Analysis & Valuation, Page 1 of 5 Copyright Robert A. Weigand, Ph.D., 2013

OKS ONEOK Partners, L.P. Sector Energy Report Date 5/8/2015 2009

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Total Revenue 6,474 8,676 11,323 10,182 11,869 12,192 12,435 12,684 13,192 13,719 13,994Gross Profit 1,119 1,145 1,577 1,642 1,647 2,103 1,990 2,029 2,111 2,195 2,239Operating Income 544 568 940 956 889 1,142 1,022 1,043 1,084 1,128 1,150Net Income 338 355 682 660 528 566 639 652 678 705 719Retained Earnings 0 0 0 0 0 0 (171) (382) (621) (902) (1,252)Total Common Shares 188 203 204 217 225 243 256 270 284 300 316Total Diluted Shares 188 203 204 217 225 243 256 270 284 300 316Earnings Per Share $1.80 $1.75 $3.35 $3.04 $2.35 $2.33 $2.49 $2.41 $2.38 $2.35 $2.28Dividends Per Share $2.18 $2.25 $2.37 $2.69 $2.89 $3.07 $3.16 $3.19 $3.23 $3.29 $3.39

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Cash and Equivalents 3 1 35 537 135 43 12 63 132 137 210Total Receivables 657 820 926 930 1,112 744 1,051 1,072 1,115 1,159 1,182Inventory 218 317 202 236 242 190 282 288 300 312 318Total Current Assets 1,102 1,279 1,306 1,892 1,583 1,086 1,669 1,702 1,770 1,841 1,878Net PPE 5,381 4,757 5,704 7,144 9,102 11,536 12,435 13,318 13,851 14,405 14,693Total Assets 7,953 7,920 8,947 10,959 12,863 14,635 15,544 16,489 17,149 17,835 18,192Payables and Accruals 694 882 1,090 1,210 1,396 1,003 1,285 1,311 1,363 1,418 1,446Total Current Liabilities 2,047 1,974 1,889 1,570 1,706 2,336 2,611 2,537 2,243 1,921 1,539Total Debt 3,345 3,011 3,516 4,804 6,045 7,094 8,207 8,372 8,311 8,232 7,696Total Equity 3,010 3,277 3,447 4,464 4,999 6,119 6,218 6,342 6,596 6,860 6,997

Historical Income Statement Highlights Forecasted Income Statement Highlights

Historical Balance Sheet Highlights Forecasted Balance Sheet Highlights

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Page 26: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

OKS. Datasource: CapitalIQ Financial Analysis & Valuation, Page 2 of 5 Copyright Robert A. Weigand, Ph.D., 2013

Margins 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Gross Profit Margin 17.3% 13.2% 13.9% 16.1% 13.9% 17.3% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%Operating Profit Margin 8.4% 6.5% 8.3% 9.4% 7.5% 9.4% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%Net Profit Margin 5.2% 4.1% 6.0% 6.5% 4.4% 4.6% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%Free Cash Flow Margin 0.0% 12.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 3.5% 4.0% 5.5%

Liquidity and Debt 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Days Sales Outstanding 37.04 34.51 29.86 33.34 34.21 22.29 30.84 30.84 30.84 30.84 30.84Inventory Turnover 29.76 27.36 56.00 43.17 48.97 64.18 44.02 44.02 44.02 44.02 44.02Total Debt to Equity 111.1% 91.9% 102.0% 107.6% 120.9% 115.9% 132.0% 132.0% 126.0% 120.0% 110.0%Total Debt to Assets 42.1% 38.0% 39.3% 43.8% 47.0% 48.5% 52.8% 50.8% 48.5% 46.2% 42.3%

Profitability 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Total Asset Turnover 0.81 1.10 1.27 0.93 0.92 0.83 0.80 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77Equity Multiplier 2.64 2.42 2.60 2.46 2.57 2.39 2.50 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60Return on Assets 4.2% 4.5% 7.6% 6.0% 4.1% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%Return on Equity 11.2% 10.8% 19.8% 14.8% 10.6% 9.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3%Return on Capital 9.5% 11.0% 16.0% 12.4% 9.5% 9.8% 8.1% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%

2.252.302.352.402.452.502.552.602.652.70

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Page 27: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

OKS. Datasource: CapitalIQ Financial Analysis & Valuation, Page 3 of 5 Copyright Robert A. Weigand, Ph.D., 2013

Capital, NOPAT & FCF 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

NOWC 183 256 73 493 94 -26 61 113 183 190 264Net Fixed Assets 5,381 4,757 5,704 7,144 9,102 11,536 12,435 13,318 13,851 14,405 14,693Total Invested Capital 5,565 5,014 5,777 7,637 9,196 11,510 12,496 13,431 14,034 14,596 14,957Effective Tax Rate 2.9% 3.1% 1.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4%NOPAT 528 550 926 945 877 1,127 1,008 1,028 1,069 1,112 1,134Free Cash Flow N/A 1,101 163 -914 -682 -1,187 22 93 466 551 773NOPAT Per Share 2.82 2.71 4.55 4.35 3.90 4.63 3.93 3.81 3.76 3.71 3.60FCF/Share N/A 5.43 0.80 -4.21 -3.04 -4.88 0.08 0.35 1.64 1.84 2.45Return on Capital 9.5% 11.0% 16.0% 12.4% 9.5% 9.8% 8.1% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%

Intrinsic Value of FCFs Valuation ModelValue Creation 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Economic Value-Added 278 325 667 602 464 610 447 425 439 456 462Market Valued-Added 2,834 4,782 8,322 7,260 6,830 3,523 13,754 14,689 15,416 16,042 17,133PV of Future FCFs 20,532 20,353 21,105 22,967 24,681 26,977 28,167 29,339 30,191 30,996 31,616Value of Non-Oper. Assets 3 1 35 537 135 43 12 63 132 137 210Total Intrinsic Firm Value 20,535 20,354 21,140 23,504 24,815 27,019 28,179 29,402 30,323 31,133 31,826Intrinsic Value of Equity 17,190 17,343 17,624 18,700 18,771 19,925 19,972 21,031 22,012 22,902 24,129Per Share Intrinsic Value $91.62 $85.54 $86.47 $86.12 $83.55 $81.89 $77.93 $77.90 $77.41 $76.46 $76.47 0.14050619Year-End Stock Price $31.15 $39.75 $57.74 $53.99 $52.65 $39.63 $41.04Over (Under) Valuation/Sh ($60.47) ($45.79) ($28.73) ($32.13) ($30.90) ($42.26)% Over (Under) Valued -194.1% -115.2% -49.8% -59.5% -58.7% -106.6%

Cost of Capital 2014 Weight % Cost Wgt CostEquity Capitalization 9,642 57.6% 4.9% 2.8%

Total Debt 7,094 42.4% 4.0% 1.7%Preferred Stock 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Value of All Securities 16,736 100.0%Effective Tax Rate 1.4% Long-Term Growth Rate:Risk-Free Rate 1.895% 2.0%5-Yr Beta 0.288 Alternative Beta:Market Risk Premium 6.00% 0.50CAPM Cost of Equity 4.895%

4.492%

(Tax rate from last historical year used in forecasts)

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OKS. Datasource: CapitalIQ Financial Analysis & Valuation, Page 4 of 5 Copyright Robert A. Weigand, Ph.D., 2013

Relative Valuation 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Stock Price/Intr. Value $31.15 $39.75 $57.74 $53.99 $52.65 $39.63 $77.93 $77.90 $77.41 $76.46 $76.47Price to Earnings 17.3 22.7 17.2 17.8 22.4 17.0 31.3 32.3 32.5 32.5 33.6Price to Free Cash Flow N/A 7.3 72.2 N/A N/A N/A 924.4 225.2 47.2 41.6 31.2Price to Sales 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7Price to Book 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3Earnings Yield 5.8% 4.4% 5.8% 5.6% 4.5% 5.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0%Dividend Yield 7.0% 5.7% 4.1% 5.0% 5.5% 7.7% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4%Free Cash Flow Yield N/A 13.7% 1.4% -7.8% -5.8% -12.3% 0.1% 0.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.2%

Relative Valuation Pricing Model Adjust 2015E Target Dividend Discount Valuation Model 2015E Ratio Ratio Ratio Metric Price OKS ONEOK Partners, L.P.

Price to Earnings 31.3 18.0 $2.49 $44.87 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%Price to Free Cash Flow 924.4 24.0 $0.08 $2.02 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019EPrice to Sales 1.6 $48.52 $77.93 $2.18 $2.25 $2.37 $2.69 $2.89 $3.07 $3.16 $3.19 $3.23 $3.29 $3.39Price to Book 1.3 $60.65 $77.93

1-Yr Div Growth 6.2% PV Dividends 1-4 $11.43 Dividend Yield 7.7%2015E 3-Yr Div Growth 9.1% PV Perpetual Div. $147.72

Current Price $41.04 5-Yr Div Growth 7.1% Intrinsic Value $159.15 If Purchased For: $41.04PV of Free Cash Flows $77.93 Risk-Free Rate 1.90% Current Price $41.04 Expected Return = 47.6% 44.48%Dividend Discount Model $159.15 5-Yr Beta 0.29 ($41.04) $3.16 $3.19 $3.23 $182.12 $178.83Price to Earnings $44.87 Market Premium 6.0% Analyst Notes:Price to Free Cash Flow $2.02 Required Return 4.9% Based on a current dividend of $3.07, expected growth as shown above and an equity requiredPrice to Sales $77.93 Alternative Beta 0.50 return of 4.9%, OKS is worth $159.15 per share, vs. a current price of $41.04.Price to Book $77.93

Compared With: Compared With:

Williams Companies, Inc. S&P 500 Index

Kinder Morgan, Inc.

Expected Dividend Growth Rates

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Page 29: Analysts: Christopher Carson, Mark Latimer, Applied ... · balance sheet. Financial dashboard indicates that OKS has gained operating efficiency in recent years, as EBIT and NOPAT

OKS. Datasource: CapitalIQ Financial Analysis & Valuation, Page 5 of 5 Copyright Robert A. Weigand, Ph.D., 2013

Piotroski Financial Fitness Scorecard (10-point scale) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Positive Net Income 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Positive Free Cash Flow 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1Growing ROA (% change NI > % change TA) 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0Earnings Quality (Operating Income > Net Income) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Assets Growing Faster Than Total Liabilities 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1Increasing Liquidity (Current Ratio) 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1% Change Shares Outstanding (Diluted) < +2.0% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Expanding Gross Margin 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Asset Turnover (% change sales > % change assets) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow (EBIT) < 4.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Piotroski Score 8 9 6 3 4 6 6 6 6 6

Altman Probability of Bankruptcy Z-Score Weight 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

(Current Assets-Current Liabilities)/Total Assets 1.200 -0.1054 -0.0782 0.0352 -0.0115 -0.1025 -0.0728 -0.0607 -0.0331 -0.0054 0.0223Retained Earnings/Total Assets 1.400 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0146 -0.0312 -0.0488 -0.0694Earnings Before Interest & Tax/Total Assets 3.300 0.2365 0.3469 0.2879 0.2280 0.2576 0.2170 0.2086 0.2086 0.2086 0.2086Market Value Equity/Total Liabilities 0.600 1.0414 1.2838 1.0828 0.9025 0.6794 1.2848 1.2435 1.2515 1.2520 1.2932Sales/Total Assets 0.999 1.0943 1.2643 0.9282 0.9219 0.8322 0.7992 0.7685 0.7685 0.7685 0.7685Altman Score 2.27 2.82 2.33 2.04 1.67 2.23 2.15 2.16 2.17 2.22

The interpretation for the Altman Score is: Safe Zone = Z > 2.9, Grey Zone = 1.23 < Z < 2.9, Distress Zone = Z < 1.23

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