Analytical framework

“The restructuring of the European [defense] industry is far from being a simple pro rata adjustment of supply to changes in demands arising from objective changes in the security environment. It is inextricably bound up with the development of institutions, policy paradigms (in both the military and the industrial domains), business networks, and relationships between companies and governments.”

John Lovering, “Which Way to Turn? The European Defense Industry After the Cold War,” in Anne Markusen and Sean Costigan, eds., Arming the Future: A Defense Industry for the 21st Century (New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1999), 342.

Slide 2 – Source: Barry Watts 2008

What is strategy?

• Since strategic problems are “wicked” & ultimate outcomes are not predictable, strategies are best guesses (heuristics)

“He who predicts the future lies, even if he tells the truth”

— Arab Proverb

• In competitive situations, strategies are about identifying or creating asymmetries that can be exploited to help achieve one’s ultimate objectives despite the active, opposing efforts of adversaries or competitors to achieve theirs

“The quintessential strategy story is of unexpected strength brought against discovered weakness. Not simply the deft wielding of power, but the actual discovery of power in a situation, an insight into a decisive asymmetry.”

— Richard Rumelt, 2004

Slide 3 -- Source: Barry Watts (2008)

Small-Unit & Crew Action

Engagements

Battles

Major Operations

Campaigns

Theater Strategy

National Policy

Force the withdrawal of Iraqi forces from Kuwait, restore Kuwait’s government, promote Persian Gulf security, etc.

Gain air control. attack Iraqi leadership & C2, destroy Republican Guard forces, free Kuwait City, etc.

Operation Desert Storm (17 Jan-28 Feb 1991)

3rd Army attacks todestroy the Republican Guard

VII Corps attacks theIraqi 12th Corps & theRepublican Guard

2nd ACR engages theTawakalna Divisionat 73 Easting

M1A1 tank engages &destroys six T-72s

TRADITIONAL COGNITIVE

Strategic orOperational

Design

Tactical Responses

REASONED “REFRAMING” of “WICKED” PROBLEMS based on data collection, filtering, & processing (both conscious & unconscious)

Requires analysis & synthesis, judgment, as well as insight (coup d’oeil)

INTUITIVE (“gut”) RESPONSES to “TAME” PROBLEMS based on perceptual pattern recognition conditioned by prior combat experience & realistic training

COGNITIVE BOUNDARY

Strategic Level

Tactical Level

Operational Level

A Cognitive View of the Levels of War