Results & Conclusions

Background Optimal ECS Locations Factor Analysis

Methodology

The Appalachian Trail is a continuous marked footpath extending from Spring-er Mountain in Georgia to Mt. Katahdin in Maine (about 2,160 miles). Each year over 2,000 “thru-hikers” attempt to make the entire journey, and about one in four actually complete it. The AT links 8 national forests, 6 national parks, and over 60 state parks, forests, and wildlife areas.

According to the Appalachian Trail Con-servancy, Maine’s 281 miles of trail are generally considered the most difficult of all 14 states. Notable parts include the high-risk Kennebec River crossing, the “Hundred Mile Wilderness” between Mt. Katahdin and Mt. Monson that have scarce opportunity for resupply, and the notorious mile-long boulder scramble up Mahoosuc Notch. Over 82% of AT hikers reporting injury and/or illness along the trek, and the final stretch through Maine’s rugged southwestern corridor is where a majority of these occur.

Although the intent of the trail’s creation was to be a “respite from everyday lives”, the dangers of this part of the trail prove to require closer attention to the emergency needs of thru-hikers and sec-tion hikers alike. Currently, emergency

care can respond to a 911 call (requiring cell phone service which is usually sparse) or a personal locator beacon (upwards of $150) from off-trail some-where.

I will attempt to determine the best are-as along the Maine portion of the AT in which to place an Emergency Care Sta-tion (with an exhaustive First Aid kit and direct communication to the closest off-trail emergency team).

The factors of ECS-viability were deter-mined to be trail slope, density of shelters and trailheads (Figure 3), and proximity to hospital/ambulance locations (Figure 4). I acquired the AT data from the Appalachi-an Trail Conservancy and the Maine emer-gency data from the MEGIS online data-base.

I masked the AT data (centerline, shelter locations, and parking locations) to Maine, and projected all data into the UTM Zone 19. I then created a slope layer using a contour model from MEGIS.

I then reclassified all of the factors into levels of desirability (Table 1), based on personal Wilderness First Aid training and backcountry emergency care research, and used the raster calculator to combine

these factors and identify the most desira-ble areas for an ECS (Figure 5).

To tailor these areas to the AT corridor, I masked them to a 100-foot buffer on the AT centerline. Finally, I converted the most ideal areas into a point layer, and selected 7 optimal locations to highlight (Figure 2).

Table 1. Suitability Score Breakdowns Factors 1 -BAD 2 3 4 5

Hospital Distance (m)

0—

13,000

13,000—

22,000

22,000—

34,000

34,000 —

54,000

54,000—

130,000

Ambul. Distance (m)

42,000—

121,000

25,500—

42,000

15,000—

25,500

9,000—

15,000

0—9,000

Parking Density

0 0 –1x10-9 1x10-9—

4x10-9

4x10-9—

8x10-9

8x10-9—

4x10-8

Shelter Density

0.015—

0.019

0.011—

0.015

0.008—

0.011

0.004—

0.008

0—0.004

Slope 15—27% 9—15% 6—9% 3—6% 0—3%

This suitability analysis reveals 7 differ-ent clusters of 62 optimal locations for an ECS (Figure 2). There also 55 ac-ceptable site locations, for a total of 117 possible ECS locations . All of these points are either in the Hundred Mile Wilderness section or the Kennebec River area, suggesting that these areas have both high risk and lack of emer-gency care access.

I arbitrarily chose one site from each of the optimal clusters to highlight as pro-posed locations, but if this project were to be implemented, an in-person analy-sis would be required by the builders to determine actual locations within the optimal site cluster areas. They would need to see the trail sections in order to

make an informed decision about struc-ture design and accessibility. It would also be wise to work in conjunction with the AT Trail Runners since they have high levels of experience with the trail itself.

Although the project would cost a sig-nificant amount to implement (building costs, material costs, response technol-ogy & preparedness costs), it would both eliminate negative stigmas sur-rounding the AT journey as well as be beneficial to a majority of people that hike this final leg. It would give the AT Conservancy more legitimacy while en-abling the yearly pilgrimage to continue into the future with a much lower risk.

The biggest limitation was the lack of a Digital Elevation Model for the entire state of Maine. Instead, I had to con-vert a contour data set from the MEGIS database into a TIN (Triangulated Irreg-ular Network) layer and then convert that into a raster that I could then use as a DEM, decreasing the accuracy of my slope modelling.

Another limitation was a lack of infor-mation on existing shelters, which re-sulted in choosing new sites for emer-gency care structures based on a raster analysis of factors as opposed to con-ducting a vector analysis on shelters that could be possible candidates for emergency response program imple-mentation.

Additionally, I was not able to find sufficient hydrology data to do this, but it would have been helpful to add in river crossing locations on the trail as an added danger factor in the analysis.

Created by: Emily Quigley

Date: 12/12/2013, GIS101

Professors: Carl Zimmerman, Carolyn Talmadge

Data Sources: MEGIS, Appalachian Trail

Conservancy

Scale: 1 : 1,800,000

Projection: NAD 1984 UTM Zone 19N

Limitations

Analyzing Maine’s Section of the Appalachian Trail

A Suitability Analysis for Emergency Care Sites

Figures 3, 4, and 5 are examples of several processing steps of the various factors in-

cluded in this project. Density of parking locations and shelter locations (not shown)

were combined with proximity to ambulances and hospitals (not shown), as well as a

slope model (not shown), to create the raster suitability layer in Fig. 5.

Figure 2. Possible ECS Locations along trail as

determined by suitability analysis Figure 1. Inset map highlighting Maine

Figure 3. Parking density Figure 4. Ambulance proximity Figure 5. Statewide suitability

Image 1. Appalachian Trail marker

Image 2. Lehigh Gap Lean-to Shelter