And The ACSAnd The ACSTransportationTransportation

Be careful what you wish for, or how we got here and why it won’t be

changing

Be careful what you wish for, or how we got here and why it won’t be

changing

How FDOT can help us help ourselvesHow FDOT can help us help ourselves

2

Article I,Article I, Section

2;Section 2;

“Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective numbers…..

“Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective numbers…..

3

“The actual Enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent term of ten Years, in such manner as they shall by law direct.”

“The actual Enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent term of ten Years, in such manner as they shall by law direct.”

Article I,I,Article I,I, Section

2;Section 2;

“The actual Enumeration”“The actual Enumeration”

4

“free persons, including those bound to service for a term of years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three-fifths of all other persons”,*

“free persons, including those bound to service for a term of years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three-fifths of all other persons”,*

Article I,Article I, Section

2;Section 2;

* Amendment 14 to the Constitution now refers to the “whole number of persons”.

5

The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States, and the Electors in each State shall have the Qualifications requisite for Electors of the most numerous Branch of the State Legislature.

No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years, and been seven Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.

Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole er of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each State shall have at Least one Representative; and until such enumeration shall be made, the State of New Hampshire shall be entitled to chuse three, Massachusetts eight, Rhode Island and Providence Plantations one, Connecticut five, New York six, New Jersey four, Pennsylvania eight, Delaware one, Maryland six, Virginia ten, North Carolina five, South Carolina five and Georgia three.

When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies.

The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.

The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States, and the Electors in each State shall have the Qualifications requisite for Electors of the most numerous Branch of the State Legislature.

No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years, and been seven Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.

Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole er of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each State shall have at Least one Representative; and until such enumeration shall be made, the State of New Hampshire shall be entitled to chuse three, Massachusetts eight, Rhode Island and Providence Plantations one, Connecticut five, New York six, New Jersey four, Pennsylvania eight, Delaware one, Maryland six, Virginia ten, North Carolina five, South Carolina five and Georgia three.

When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies.

The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.

Article I,Article I,

Section 2;Section 2;

6

1920 Census1920 Census

World War IWorld War I

Dramatic Shift in PopulationDramatic Shift in Population

Rural - Conservative - Southern States

ToIndustrialized - Urban - Northern

States

Rural - Conservative - Southern States

ToIndustrialized - Urban - Northern

StatesCongress Refused to ReapportionCongress Refused to Reapportion

7

1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment

1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment

Census 90’ undercount 8 millionCensus 90’ undercount 8 million

Bipartisan support in CongressBipartisan support in Congress

1997 Redistricting Memorandum1997 Redistricting Memorandum

8

1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment

1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment

1997 Redistricting Memorandum1997 Redistricting Memorandum

“The GOP would suffer a negative effect in the partisan makeup of 24 congressional seats, 113 state senate seats, and 297 state house seats nationwide. An adjusted census could provide Democrats the crucial edge needed to prevail in close contests to control several state legislative chambers.”

Jim Nicholson, Chairman RNCJim Nicholson, Chairman RNC

9

1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment

1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment

Census 90’ undercount 8 millionCensus 90’ undercount 8 million

Bipartisan support in CongressBipartisan support in Congress

1997 Redistricting Memorandum1997 Redistricting Memorandum

2000 Clinton Executive Order2000 Clinton Executive Order

2001 Bush Executive Order2001 Bush Executive Order

1999 U.S. Supreme Court decision1999 U.S. Supreme Court decision”The actual Enumeration””The actual Enumeration”

10

1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment

1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment

ESCAP & The Fickle Finger of FateESCAP & The Fickle Finger of Fate(Executive Committee for Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Policy)(Executive Committee for Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Policy)

Undercount estimate of 3.3 millionUndercount estimate of 3.3 million

Head Count of 281.4 millionHead Count of 281.4 million

Sampling estimate of 284.7 millionSampling estimate of 284.7 million

Vital Statistics estimate of 279 million

Vital Statistics estimate of 279 million

11

As it stands right nowAs it stands right now

No adjusted datasetsNo adjusted datasets

PL94-171 Reapportionment Dataset March – April 2011PL94-171 Reapportionment

Dataset March – April 2011

Pending actionsPending actions

No Characteristics datasets

No Characteristics datasets

Resident Population of the U.S. December 2010

Resident Population of the U.S. December 2010

12

PrimaryData

Suppression

PrimaryData

Suppression

ComplementaryData

Suppression

ComplementaryData

Suppression

Title 13 US CodeTitle 13 US CodeThe ACS and the DRBThe ACS and the DRB

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

13

Total Population and Total Housing Counts are NEVER

Suppressed!

Total Population and Total Housing Counts are NEVER

Suppressed!

14

Prohibits the release of ANY information that would permit identification of any particular establishment, individual, or household.

Prohibits the release of ANY information that would permit identification of any particular establishment, individual, or household.

Title 13,

U.S. Code,

Section 9

Title 13,

U.S. Code,

Section 9

15

All data collected or maintained by the Census Bureau under Title 13, are protected. This includes Title 13 information that may be commingled with or enhanced by data from other sources or agencies.

All data collected or maintained by the Census Bureau under Title 13, are protected. This includes Title 13 information that may be commingled with or enhanced by data from other sources or agencies.

Title 13,

U.S. Code,

Section 9

Title 13,

U.S. Code,

Section 9

16

Total Population

Total Housing Units

Seasonal/migratory Units

Year-round Units

Occupied Units

Vacant Year-round Units

Count of persons and households in each race and

Spanish origin group

Total Population

Total Housing Units

Seasonal/migratory Units

Year-round Units

Occupied Units

Vacant Year-round Units

Count of persons and households in each race and

Spanish origin group

17

PrimaryData

Suppression

PrimaryData

Suppression

Characteristics for persons are shown ONLY if there are 15 or more persons in a geographic area. . . . . . . . . . .

Characteristics for persons are shown ONLY if there are 15 or more persons in a geographic area. . . . . . . . . . .

18

PrimaryPrimaryDataData

SuppressionSuppression

PrimaryPrimaryDataData

SuppressionSuppression

Characteristics for housing units are not shown if there are fewer than 5 housing units in a geographic area. . . .

Characteristics for housing units are not shown if there are fewer than 5 housing units in a geographic area. . . .

19

PrimaryData

Suppression

PrimaryData

Suppression

Characteristics for families, households, or occupied housing units are shown only if there are at least 5 OCCUPIED housing units in a geographic area. . . .

Characteristics for families, households, or occupied housing units are shown only if there are at least 5 OCCUPIED housing units in a geographic area. . . .

20

ComplementaryData

Suppression

ComplementaryData

Suppression

Is applied to prevent the derivation of suppressed

characteristics data by subtraction.

Is applied to prevent the derivation of suppressed

characteristics data by subtraction.

21

Total occupied housing units = 6

Total owner occupied housing units = 5

Total renter occupied housing units = 1

Data will be suppressed

Total occupied housing units = 6

Total owner occupied housing units = 5

Total renter occupied housing units = 1

Data will be suppressed

ComplementaryData

SuppressionExample

ComplementaryData

SuppressionExample

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Census GeographyCensus Geography

Census Tract2,500 ~ 8,000 personsCensus Tract

2,500 ~ 8,000 persons

Census BlockCensus Block

Census Block GroupHomogeneous Blocks 600 ~ 3,000

Census Block GroupHomogeneous Blocks 600 ~ 3,000

U.S. SummaryU.S. SummaryRegionsRegions

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Land Use Mapping SystemLUMS

Tangible Property File

AWI Labor & Employment Data

24

25

Why

• FDOT & MPO’s require current, geographically precise, employment data.

• Florida’s dynamic population shifts require frequent updates in modeling demographic and transit trends.

• Stable, consistent data sources are needed to provide reliable modeling solutions

• Standardized format and accurate location are required to perform time series analysis & QC.

26

Data Sources

• Bureau of Labor & Employment Statistics contains employment data by business establishment in the LES202 data base.

• Department of Revenue collects data on type and street location of all business’s maintained in the Tangible Property (TAPR) data base

• Department of Revenue maintains the Real Property (REPR) data base indicating land use type, location, and size of each parcel.

27

Process

• Prep data files for consist format, projection & completeness.

• Geo-code 1 million + business records from TAPR. Expect about a 95% success.

• Make name & employment type subset data base from LES202 as required by Bureau of Labor.

• Geo-code 18 million + real estate records from REPR. Have a 98% success rate.

28

Process 2

• Merge LES202 subset with the geo-coded TAPR file by business name.

• For those business names in LES202 not matched with the TAPR names provide the abbreviated record to MPO for location assignment.

• Incorporate MPO location enhanced records into master employment file.

• For TAPR records not matched to LES202 determine approximate number of employees (usually self employed e.g. realtor) and include in master employment data file.

29

Results

• Using the TAPR file and the Florida Employment Mapping System (FEMS) select a county and a NAICS category or range1. Make a shape file showing

distribution of selection 2. Make a thematic map

showing distribution for polygon layers such as Census Block Groups or Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)

Warehousing & storage categories 490000 to

499999 Dade county 2008

30

Overlay in Google Earth

31

TAPR & Census

32

TAPR Distribution

• Distribution of NAICS 44 & 45, Retail Trade

33

Merge TAPR & Census

• Results of merging TAPR Retail Trade with census block groups

34

Benefits

• Where Florida Works master employment file will contain business name, business type from NAICS classification, number of employees, latitude & longitude location.

• File can be summarized by classification categories and spatial distribution.1.Convenient modification of TAZ boundaries2.Aggregation of employment categories for

various applications.

• Subsequent years will utilize geo-coding of master file for cost effective & standardized updating of employment data

35

LUMS

• The Land Use Mapping System (LUMS) is FDOR real property data summarized to the section level by land use code.

• The data is available from 1985 to present, offering a valuable data source for time series analysis.

• Data is summarized by 1 of 100 land use categories ranging from vacant residential, single family res., as well as many commercial, industrial, agricultural and government categories.

• Data can be mapped in a shape file format by county, region or the entire state and years can be compared to view change in land use over time.

36

LUMS

37

LUMS-XY

• In addition to the section level LUMS ARMASI now has a parcel centroid location data file.

• As with LUMS, the data can be mapped by county, region or the entire state.

• Using the LUMS menu interface the user selects a geographical area (county level) and land use categories to create a shape file of selected criteria.

• ARMASI has over 98% of the state geocoded to the parcel centroid level.

• Data fields for each parcel include land area, building area, owner occupancy and various valuation fields.

38

LUMS-XY

39

40

LUMS-XY

• XY location for each parcel

• Land Use category & intensity data for each parcel

• Assign each parcel to a census block

• Use average household size from Census block to assign population to a parcel.

• Summarize parcels by xy location to Census Block Group or TAZ

41

LUMS & Census

42

LUMS_XY

• Distribution of single family residential by building area

43

LUMS-XY & Census

• By merging parcel by land use point data with the census block group file we can generate a thematic map depicting the distribution of population. SF number of parcels X average household size. For multi-family the number of units per parcel are summarized to calculate the population.

44

Summary

• Using data sources updated annually we can provide detailed, geographically accurate population & employment data.

• Data will be provided in a consistent format & classification scheme for easy inclusion in modeling software.

• Consistency of data will allow for time series analysis, review and QC.

• Florida’s dynamic population shifts require frequent updates in modeling demographic and transit trends