Closing the Loop: Climate Science, Development Practice & Policy Interactions in Dryland Agro-

Ecological Systems

Andy Dougill, Evan Fraser, Claire Quinn, Lindsay Stringer & Chasca Twyman

www.cccep.ac.uk

Aims

CCCEP ‘Closing the Loop’ Work Package Aims of –

• Integration of quantitative vulnerability analysis with participatory research to assess vulnerability pathways

• Better linking of scientific & local-level knowledge perspectives into adaptation policy / decision-making

• Comparison of local & scientific understandings of climate change & risk management as guide on need for local level monitoring to ‘close the loop’ in forward planning

Case Study Analyses

1. Ecology & Society Special feature ‘Resilience and Vulnerability of Arid and Semi-Arid Social Ecological Systems’ with 8 case study papers (Niger, Botswana x2, South Africa, Mali, Ghana, Spain, Nicaragua) – Dougill et al., 2010 on-line

Reflection on value of participatory dynamic systems modelling approaches with range of qualitative – quantitative case study perspectives

2. Farming systems research assessing drought-coping strategies & cropping choice adaptations in rural Malawi, Botswana & Ghana

Vulnerability Framework

Agro-ecosytem resilience

FragileRobust

Socio-economic affluence

Limited assets

Abundant assets

Institution capacity to respond to crisis

Low

High 1 2

3 4

5 6

7 8

Movement in this direction indicates increasing vulnerability to environmental changes

Movement in this direction indicates increasing resilience to to environmental changes

Fraser 2007, Climatic Change, 83(4)

CENTURY

DECADE

SEASON

COUNTRY + REGIONAL FIELD

Exposure – Impact - Adaptation

ACCESS TO INPUTS/FOOD

Agent-Based ModDecision Model

PRA

FOOD SUPPLY

Crop-Climate Models

FOOD DISTRIBUTION

Economic modelsStatistical models

Tem

pora

l scale

Spatial scale

Closing loops - Tools

Participatory methods to ID

adaptation strategies

Large-area crop models + climate /

climate change simulations

Statistical methods to ID

socio-economic

characteristics

Tem

pora

l scale

CENTURY

DECADE

SEASON

COUNTRY + REGIONAL FIELD

Spatial scale

Identifying sensitivity to drought

Minor drought Major drought Drought Index

C

rop

Failu

re In

dex

Min

or c

rop

loss

M

ajor

cro

p lo

ss

Sensitive

Resilient

Increasing vulnerability

See Simelton et al., 2009. Env Sci & Policy, 12, 438 -452.

Quantitative modelling

Conventional social sciences

1. Establish problem and boundaries of agro-ecosystem

2. Interview experts or stakeholders to establish a narrative that explains the system

3. Analyse narrative using a flow chart or “mind map”

4. Reflect & make policy / practice recommendations

5. Explore each relationship within the system through expert focus groups to quantify whether relationships are linear or non-linear, their slope etc.

6. Run different simulations of the model to explore scenarios

Example Case Study: Kalahari Rangelands

Pastoral Botswana

Bush Encroached System

Reed & Dougill, 2010. JAE, 74(1), 149-155

More private land

Establishing bore holes

Increased grazing densities

Government policy to privatize land

Market growth

Bush encroachment

Forage

Imported feed

Number of cows

Rainfall

Income Ability to move cows to neighbour-

-

From 8 researcher & policy-maker interviews post environmental & participatory projects – linked to development of rangeland management guides

Model quantification post 3 expert focus groups with follow-up’s to discuss & show – linked to village level livestock no’s

The effect of “Agricultural Best Management” scenario to help reduce impact of climate change

Rel

ativ

e V

alu

e

Private herd

Communal herd

Best Management

Baseline

Best ManagementBaseline

A significant rise

Limited change0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1 4 7 1013 1619 2225 2831 34 3740 4346 4952 5558 6164 6770 73 7679 8285 8891 94

Time in “Model Iterations” ~ years

Pro-poor land reform scenario

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94

Rel

ativ

e V

alu

e

Private herd

Communal herd

Land reform

Land reform

Land reform

Baseline

A significant drop

A significant rise

Time in “Model Iterations” ~ years

Implications of this model• Enacting pro-poor land reform is more effective at helping

communal farmers maintain incomes in light of climate change than promoting agricultural best management

• Privatisation retains maximum national-level herd size though inequitable distribution

• Outputs of model used to stimulate discussion & to guide local-level field research

• Best management guides produced & their value to be quantified

Benefits of Process at Multiple Scales Across Diverse Case Studies

• Participatory processes at local level led to decision-making tools & actions, but also fed into District & National scale modelled generalisations

• Explanatory narratives can give explanation & provide situated accounts of relationships between livelihoods, ecosystem services and policies

• Storylines (& no’s) aim to stimulate, provoke & communicate vision of possible futures. The process leads to learning & interpretation of greater value than predictions produced

• Natural angst in quantification leads to dangers in communications on key policy interventions identified

Conclusions

• Whilst a tension exists between scientific & participatory knowledges, communication and dialogue between these approaches has benefits and explicit resolution not essential• Process of narratives into models helps policy-makers to better understand system dynamics and complexity, though uncertainties in developing to predictive models (=> use as ‘throw-away’ models)• Consistent simplified framing of vulnerability proved appropriate across range of approaches & case studies => can bring insights across multiple scales

www.cccep.ac.uk