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Annual Results 2011 Air New Zealand

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Page 1: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Annual Results 2011

Air New Zealand

Page 2: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Highlights

• Normalised earnings* $75m

• Net cash position of $860m

• Operating cash flow down 5%

• Gearing at 46 7%• Gearing at 46.7%

• Final dividend 2.5 cents per share (unimputed)

• New A320 and B777-300ER aircraft

• Seats to Suit

• Virgin Alliance and shareholding

* Normalised earnings before taxation after excluding the net impact of derivatives that hedge exposures in other financial periods 2

Page 3: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

S

External Environment

• Stronger NZ dollar against US dollar

• Average fuel price in FY11 up 28% on FY10

• Refining margin up 134%

40

60

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100

120

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200

Jan-

05

Jul-0

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Jan-

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Jul-0

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Jan-

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Jul-0

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Jul-1

0

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Jul-1

1

USD / BBLFuel

Singapore Jet WTI (Crude)

0.4

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0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

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Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

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0

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Jul-1

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NZD / USDNZD:USD Rate

3

Page 4: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

$297m$33m

$61m ($59m)

($229m)

400

500

600

Key Influences on Profitability

$NZm

$137m

($17m)($24m)

($13m) ($16m)($95m)

$75m

0

100

200

300

June 2010 Normalised

Earnings

June 2011 Normalised

Earnings

Passenger Revenue

Cargo Revenue

Other Revenue

Labour Fuel Operations &

Maintenance

Depreciation & Lease Rentals

Finance Costs

Net Impact of FX

(Including Hedging)

Sales & Marketing

4

Page 5: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Long Haul Performance

• Passenger demand* increased 1.2%

• Capacity increased 0.3%

• Load factor up 0.8 percentage points to 83.9%Load factor up 0.8 percentage points to 83.9%

• Yield improved 4.3% (excluding FX impact, 9.2%)

• Christchurch and Japan earthquakes

* Measured in revenue passenger kilometres 5

Page 6: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Tasman & Pacific Island Performance• Passenger demand up 10.2%

• Capacity increased by 6.4%

• Load factor up 2.9 percentage points to 83.3%

• Virgin Blue trans-Tasman alliance a reality

• Seats to Suit a success

6

Page 7: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Seats to Suit a Success

• Yield dilution less than

expected

• Delivered more capacity at 125,000

150,000

Tasman Passenger Growth* Year on Year

November 2010 - May 2011Passenger Numbers

minimal costs

• Load factors increased

despite capacity increase

• Strong share shift

evidenced-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Air NZ Other Airlines

7* Source: Statistics New Zealand. Excludes June 2011 due to the abnormal effect of the Chilean volcano ash cloud.

Page 8: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Domestic Performance

• Passenger demand increased by 7.7%

• Capacity increased by 3.8%

• Load factor up 3.0 percentage points to 82.0%

• Within 10 minute OTP performance of 82%*

• Ash cloud

• New A320s for Domestic

• Exit of Pacific Blue

*Air New Zealand adheres to a more disciplined 10 min standard than the rest of the market

8

Page 9: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Impact of Christchurch / Japan Earthquakes

• Combined impact of earthquakes approximately $70m

• Combination of reduced demand for travel plus cost of

additional capacity into Christchurch and compassionate

fares

• Domestic market largely recovered

• Prolonged recovery for trans-Tasman

• Japan demand recovering – upgauging services to B772

in November

9

Page 10: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

• Cargo

– Cargo revenue increased 9%– Increased capacity with B773 aircraft– Continued growth in North American southbound routes

Asia and Tasman performing well

Other Business Areas

– Asia and Tasman performing well– Domestic growth in both volume and capacity with A320

introduction

• Engineering

– Increased revenue from third party work– Hangar Three extension complete– Altitude wins second major Boeing Business Jet contract

10

Page 11: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Cost Efficiency

• Set-back in second half as capacity quickly reduced

• Utilisation reduction from Christchurch earthquake

• Impact of B747 exit costs and inefficiencies of under utilised fleet

2011 (cents)

2010 (cents)

Cost per ASK (CASK) 11.34 10.53Exclude:Fuel (3.33) (2.95)FX hedges (0.36) 0.04CASK (excluding fuel and FX hedges) 7.65 7.62

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Page 12: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

• $860m cash on balance sheet at year end

• Gearing 46.7%, a 0.6 percentage point improvement

• Average fleet age of 8.6 years

Financial Management

Average fleet age of 8.6 years

• Moody’s rating Baa3

• Final dividend 2.5 cents per share (unimputed)

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Page 13: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

• Success of programme measured by engagement

• 16% growth in membership base in FY11

• On average, at least one Airpoints member in every NZ ho sehold

Airpoints Programme

household

• More than 20% of members earned Airpoints through Fly Buys partnership

• Planning new functionality

– Purchase Airpoints to top up

13

Page 14: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Air New Zealand is considering making an offer of bonds to the public.

Issuer Air New Zealand LimitedSecurities Unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate debt obligationsInterest Rate Determined by Air New Zealand Limited in consultation with the

Joint Lead Managers and announced on or before the Opening

Potential Bond Offer

Joint Lead Managers and announced on or before the Opening Date

Offer Amount Up to $150 millionUse of Proceeds General business purposesMaturity 15 November 2016Expected Open of Offer 5 September 2011*

No money is currently being sought and no applications will be accepted or money received unless the applicant has received a Simplified Disclosure Prospectus.

*or such other date as Air New Zealand Limited may determine 14

Page 15: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

1. Includes progress payments on aircraft.

2. Assumes NZD/USD = 0.83

3. Excludes capitalised maintenance of approximately $45m per

$NZm

Aircraft Capital Commitments

Aircraft Capital Commitments

400

600

800

1,000

approximately $45m per annum and non aircraft capital commitments.

Aircraft delivery schedule FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15Boeing 777-300ER 2 - - -

Airbus A320 2* 1 3 4

Boeing 787-9 - - 5 -

*The next two Airbus A320s are subject to operating lease arrangements

15

0

200

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Page 16: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

• Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge

– Target 80% hedged for next six months

Changes to Hedging Policy

Target 80% hedged for next six months

– Increase in fuel hedge timeline

– Reduction in FX hedge timeline

• Cease capital expenditure hedging

• Fuel hedge to be a mix of WTI and Brent priced crude

• “Unruly markets” minimum

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Page 17: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Volume bbls Ceiling USD Floor USD

• Hedging policy modified due to current market volatility

• Decision remains under review

• Current position has FY12 first half 89% hedged

Current Fuel Hedge Position*

• The second half of FY12 is 30% hedged

• 750,000 barrels of defensive puts bought at US$80 for FY12

Volume bbls Ceiling USD Floor USDWTI collars 3.3m $100.84 $88.45

* Fuel hedge position as at 16 August 2011

Volume bbls Ceiling USD Floor USDWTI collars 1.1m $104.71 $95.08

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Page 18: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

• 2012 US dollar operating cash flow exposure is

approximately 84% hedged at an average NZ$/US$ rate

of 0.75

Currency Hedging

• US$145m of future capital commitments are hedged at

NZ$/US$ rate of 0.73 (spot)

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Page 19: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

• Following events surrounding Christchurch and the shift of events towards Auckland, the revenue impact is now expected to be around $30m.

• Will see activity to stimulate travel and address directional flow

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Page 20: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Strategic Priorities• Long haul review

• Virgin Alliance – reinforcing key customer value propositions

• Maximising loyalty programme opportunities

• Operational productivity and efficiency

• Managing fleet replacement programmes

• Manage capacity against short haul demand momentum

• Maintaining our environmental leadership position

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Page 21: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Outlook

• Turbulence and turmoil in international financial markets is concerning.

• Seeing good performance in the short haul environment

E t b tt f i l h l b i i• Expect better performance in long haul business in FY12

• Accordingly we see an improved result in FY12, contingent on fuel price levels and global economic conditions.

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Page 22: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

• Financial overview

• Normalised earnings

• Group operating statistics

Supplementary Information

• Long haul operating statistics

• Short haul operating statistics

• Current operating fleet

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Page 23: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

June 2011 June 2010Dollar

movementPercentage movement

Operating revenue $4,341m $4,046m $295m 7.3%

Normalised earnings* $75m $137m ($62m) (45 3%)

Financial Overview

* Normalised earnings before taxation after excluding the net impact of derivatives that hedge exposures in other financial periods

Normalised earnings $75m $137m ($62m) (45.3%)

Net profit after tax $81m $82m ($1m) (1.2%)

Operating cash flow $446m $471m ($25m) (5.3%)

Net cash $860m $1,067m ($207m) (19.4%)

Gearing 46.7% 47.3% N/A 0.6 pts

Annual dividend 5.5cps 7.0cps (1.5cps) (21.4%)

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Page 24: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

June 2011 June 2010

Earnings before Taxation $73m $123m

Normalised Earnings

Reverse net (gains) / losses on derivatives that hedge exposures in other financial periods:

Fuel derivatives $7m $8m

Foreign exchange derivatives ($5m) $6m

Normalised Earnings before Taxation $75m $137m

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Page 25: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

June 2011 June 2010 Movement*

Passengers carried 13.1m 12.3m 6.3%

Available seat kilometres

Group Operating Statistics

(ASKs) 32,353m 31,578m 2.5%

Revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) 26,996m 25,829m 4.5%

Load factor 83.4% 81.8% 1.6 pts

Yield (cents per RPK) 13.1 12.8 2.0%

* Calculations based on numbers before rounding 25

Page 26: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Long Haul Operating Statistics

June 2011 June 2010 Movement*

Passengers carried 1.7m 1.7m 0.2%

ASKs 18,487m 18,430m 0.3%

RPKs 15,506m 15,320m 1.2%

Load factor 83.9% 83.1% 0.8 pts

Yield (cents per RPK) 9.8 9.4 4.3%

26* Calculations based on numbers before rounding

Page 27: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

June 2011 June 2010 Movement*

Passengers carried 11.4m 10.7m 7.3%

Short Haul Operating Statistics

ASKs 13,866m 13,147m 5.5%

RPKs 11,490m 10,509m 9.3%

Load factor 82.9% 79.9% 3.0 pts

Yield (cents per RPK) 17.4 17.7 (1.7%)

27* Calculations based on numbers before rounding

Page 28: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Aircraft Type June 2009

2010 movement

June 2010

2011 movement

June 2011

Boeing 747-400 7 - 7 (2) 5

Boeing 777-300ER - - - 3 3

Boeing 777 200ER 8 8 8

Current Operating Fleet

Boeing 777-200ER 8 - 8 - 8

Boeing 767-300ER 5 - 5 - 5

Airbus A320-200 12 - 12 2 14

Boeing 737-300 16 (1) 15 - 15

ATR 72-500 11 - 11 - 11

Bombardier Q300 23 - 23 - 23

Beech 1900D 18 - 18 - 18

Total operating fleet 100 (1) 99 3 102

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Page 29: Annual Results 2011 - p-airnz.com · • Fuel and FX hedging aligned; “same speed of adjustment” – 12 month declining wedge – Target 80% hedged for next six months Changes

Questions?

Air New Zealand Annual Results 2011