“global investment in renewable energy” · co 2: +40% ch 4: +150% n 2 o: +20% ipcc 5th report:...
TRANSCRIPT
Michael EckhartManaging Director
Global Head of Environmental FinanceCorporate & Investment BankingCitigroup Capital Markets, [email protected]
“Global Investment in Renewable Energy”Presented to:
New Zealand Wind Power Conference15 April 2014
Wellington, New Zealand
PERSPECTIVE
CO2: +40%
CH4: +150%
N2O: +20%
IPCC 5th Report: Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have all increased since 1750, and especially since mid-1900s
Source: IPCC AR5 Working Group 1: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850
Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961 ‐ 1990
(°C)
1850 1900 1950 2000
In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75
(°C)
Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal, and to a level of 90% certainty, it is due to human activity.
Source: IPCC AR5 Working Group 1: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
Cumulative CO2 emissions to reach 800 Gt by 2035, split evenly by OECD and non-OECD…
Non‐OECDOECD
200
400
600
800Gt
1900‐1929
1930‐1959
1960‐1989
1990‐2012
2013‐2035
OECD51%
Non‐OECD49%
Energy‐related CO2 emissions by 30‐year Periods1900 ‐ 2035
Source: World Energy Outlook, 2013, IEA
Total Emissions1900‐2035
Projections for 2035 Exceed the “Carbon Budget” for 2.0 °C Suggesting Higher Temperature Increases
Non‐OECDOECD
200
400
600
800Gt
1900‐1929
1930‐1959
1960‐1989
1990‐2012
2013‐2035
OECD
Non‐OECD
Total emissions1900‐2035
51%
49%
Cumulative energy‐related CO2 emissions
+3.0 °C +2.5 °C +2.0 °C
+1.5 °C
Source: “Unburnable Carbon 2013”, Carbon Tracker
The World is Preparing to Act…IEA’s Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Scenario
Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2012.(1) Other includes concentrated solar power, geothermal, marine energy, small hydro and wind offshore.
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gt
Current Policies Scenario
New Policies Scenario
Efficient World Scenario
450 Scenario (2°C)
4
But the World Faces Growth in Energy Demand and Associated Emissions … a True Dilemma
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Million vehicles
China
EUUS
India
Middle East
For Example: Light‐duty vehicle fleet growth by region
TODAY
Business Opportunities from Climate Policy
Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2012.(1) Other includes concentrated solar power, geothermal, marine energy, small hydro and wind offshore.
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gt
Efficient
Smart
Clean
Renewable
4
Decarbon
Five key words will guide energy in the next several decades…
40 YEARS INTO A 100‐YEAR TRANSITION TO CLEAN ENERGY
New Investment in Clean Energy
Source: BNEF.Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects.
$55 $80
$116
$167 $195 $196
$262
$318
$286
$254
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
46%
45%
44%
17%
1%
34%
21% (10%)
(11%)
($ in billions)
EMEA Region($ in billions)
New Investment in Clean Energy by Region
Source: BNEF.Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics).
ASOC Region($ in billions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China Japan India Australia Rest of ASOC South East Asia Korea (Republic)
AMER Region($ in billions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US Brazil Canada LatAm Excl. Brazil Rest of AMER
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Germany Spain Italy UK Rest of EU 28 South Africa Rest of EMEA
AMER region declined by 8% China adding PV to windJapan increased 56%EMEA fell 36% due to policyME and Africa emerging
$61.3
$48.4
$35.4
$14.1
$13.1
$7.5
$6.8
$5.4
$4.9
$4.1
$4.1
$3.4
China
United States
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
Canada
India
Australia
South Africa
France
Italy
Brazil
Top Countries: New Investment in Clean Energy
Source: BNEF.Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics).
($ in billions)
China and US continued to dominate clean energy investments, as activity in Germany, Italy and Brazil declined
‐4%
‐9%
56%
‐46%
13%
33%
‐1%
‐4%
‐14%
‐33%
‐73%
‐52%
Historical and Projected Renewable Generation Growth
Source: BNEF.
188.4 228.9 275.3 307.1
354.0 406.0
455.7 43.6 73.0
104.7 146.0
194.1
247.7
312.5
178.1
182.5
186.8
190.8
194.3
197.8
201.3
60.9
66.6
70.9
76.4
82.0
88.4
95.6
481.9
562.2
649.6
733.4
838.3
954.3
1,080.5
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Wind Solar Hydro Biomass & Waste Geothermal Marine
Projected
GW
New ZealandElectricity Generation by Fuel Type
53%
20%
14%
8%
5%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Hydro
Gas
Geothermal
Coal
Wind
Bio
72% renewable energy
Electricity Generating Assets
Key Policies:• New Zealand Energy Strategy
(NZES)• National Policy Statement for
Renewable Electricity Generation (NPS REG)
• Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
A GOOD REASON TO SUCCEED
Michael EckhartManaging Director
Global Head of Environmental FinanceCorporate & Investment BankingCitigroup Capital Markets, Inc.
Thank You
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