“We haven’t got a plan, so nothing can go wrong”

(Spike Milligan)

Politics and planning in transportWilliam McDougall

Smart Urban Futures Conference 2019

Politics has trumped planning

• Investment decisions now based on political promises

• Decisions made first, business cases and EESs follow (‘sell jobs’)

• No Victorian transport plan (contravenes TIA)

• IV and IA have little influence – politicians ignore their advice, or use it selectively

Main outcomes: red herrings, delays to critical actions, secrecy, misuse of public funds

All too many examples – and it’s not new

Perth: Fremantle line (1980s), Metronet

Sydney: WestConnex, Sydney Metro, North East line

Melbourne:

• East West Link

• Melbourne Metro/Melbourne Rail Link

• West Gate Tunnel

• North East Link

• Airport Rail (+ regional connections)

• Suburban Rail Loop

Good economics is not a criterionPublic transport

• LXRP – 0.8• LXRP+CPLU+MM – 0.9• MM – 1.1• Means that CPLU was 0.7. MM propping up worse projects? MM not justified?

West Gate Tunnel• WGT + Monash Fwy Upgrade – 1.3 (I think 0.8)• WGT only – 1.1 (I think 0.7)• Monash upgrade – 4.2 (I think 2.6)

East West Link: 0.8 (with optimism bias)

But business cases are quickly forgotten,once they’ve served their purpose…

Forecast failures – Victoria in Future

• VIF always predicts low

• Only one series

• Since 2004, has stopped at 2031

• Used for all transport models and business case projections

• AND 7% discount rate

• Does not favour long term projects

Actual

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031A

nn

ual

po

pu

lati

on

gro

wth

, Vic

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VIF forecasts published in:2016

2015

2012

2008

2004

2000

Source: Updated from an original by Charter Keck Cramer, 2017

Infrastructure investment boom

Source: Macromonitor

0

2

4

6

8

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24

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Val

ue

of

wo

rk d

on

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ear

($

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Year ending June

Major Transport Infrastructure Projects - Australia

Road Transit Freight Air na

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Val

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($B

)

Year ending June

Major Transport Infrastructure Projects - Australia

Road Transit Freight Air na

Non-capital city projects - stippled

Sydney ClearwaysM2, M5 Upgrades

WestConnex

NorthConnexWestern Sydney Rds

W Harbour

Tunnel & Beaches Link

Sydney Gateway

Epping-Chatswood

SW Rail

Metro NW

Light Rail

Metro City & SW

N-S Rail (2nd airport)

Metro W

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Val

ue

of

wo

rk d

on

e p

er

year

($

B)

Year ending June

Major Transport Infrastructure Projects - Sydney

Eastlink

W Ring Road

Peninsula Link

CityLink-Tulla WideningWest Gate Tunnel

Outer Suburbs Arterials

North East Link

Monash Fwy

Regional Rail Link

L Crossing Removals

Metro Rail Tunnel

Webb Dock

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Val

ue

of

wo

rk d

on

e p

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year

($

B)

Year ending June

Major Transport Infrastructure Projects - Melbourne

Travel in Melbourne today – my view

0

2

4

6

8

10

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16

18

Commutes Other TOTAL

Mill

ion

s

Daily trips in Melbourne 2016

PT Active Car

11%

5%

84%

Heavy rail – the real mass transit

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Workers Students Total

320,000 enter central Melbourne in morning peak, 2016

Train Tram Bus Car Active

10%

16%

4%

18%

52%

Alternative land use futures

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2

4

6

8

10

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14

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18

20

22

2426

28

30

2016 M@8m BAU M@8mCentralise

M@8mDecentralise

Mill

ion

s

Land use strategies won't change city-wide travel much

PT Active Car

Alternative land use futures

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2016 M@8m BAU M@8mCentralise

M@8mDecentralise

Mill

ion

s

But peak trips to Inner Melbourne could change a lot

PT Active Car

Transport futures

• MUCH more mass transit

• On-road PT networks also need dramatic expansion

• Cycling and walking must be made safer, for a lot more people

• Outer suburbs with 90% car use will not work

• Autonomous vehicles – occupancy down, road capacity up

• Ride and active transport sharing will come of age

• Driverless transit will be much more efficient

• Mass transit will be commercially viable

Strategic directions

Develop meaningful targets:

• Mobility kept at or above today’s levels as city grows

• Zero emissions from city transport by 2050

• Zero fatalities as well

• Mass & Active transport to take up majority of future growth

• Mode share of M&A – more than 50% city-wide daily by 2050? What will be enough to keep road use manageable? How will road space be allocated between modes?

New planning approach

• De-politicise once and for all• Link to decarbonisation and climate policies• Binding targets for mode shares and capacity• Revitalise Transport Integration Act and give it teeth• Connect transport planning to land use and growth• Re-think city land use and travel patterns• Incentivise and legislate for new technologies, business models• Require rolling 30-year strategies and 10-year investment plans• All logically prioritised using updated/improved methods• Every stage fully, independently audited and open to public scrutiny