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AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgments How do heuristics, overconfidence, & belief perseverance influence our decisions & judgments?

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Page 1: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

APPSYCHUnit7B.2MakingDecisions&Forming

JudgmentsHowdoheuristics,overconfidence,&beliefperseveranceinfluenceourdecisions&judgments?

Page 2: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

Using&MisusingHeuristicsOurmind’sautomaticprocessingusesheuristicstomakequickjudgmentdecisions,butsometimesquickdecisionscanleadustomakebaddecisions

RepresentativeHeuristics- makingajudgmentbasedonprototypesorstereotypes.

AvailabilityHeuristics- makingajudgmentbasedonthefirstthingthatcomestomind.

Tip:Itwillcomedowntohowthequestion iswordedonatest- becausecertainlybothcanapply

EX:Representative-seeing areallytallpersonassumingthattheyplaybasketball,becausetheyfityourprototypeofthebasketballplayer

EX:Availability-thinkingthatgettingtheZika virusislikely,Because it'sinthenewssomuch

Page 3: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

Using&MisusingHeuristics

RepresentativeHeuristics– Usingstereotypestomakejudgements

AvailabilityHeuristics– Usingthefirstthingthatpopsintoourmindtothenmakenewstereotypes

Page 4: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

Using&MisusingHeuristicsImagineapolitician

Whopopped intoyourmind?

Butbecarefulusing:"inthenews"or"recentlyheard"sincethemostimportantaspectofavailabilityisthatit"popsintoyourmindfirst”IreadalotaboutTrumpbutthefirstthingthat"popsintomymind"aboutpoliticiansmaynotbehim!

Imagineanurse

Whopopped intoyourmind?

Awoman?

Page 5: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

Using&MisusingHeuristics

Which kills more people per year, shark attacks or hot dogs?

Page 6: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

Using&MisusingHeuristicsOurmind’sautomaticprocessingusesheuristicstomakequickjudgmentdecisions,butsometimesquickdecisionscanleadustomakebaddecisions

Representativeheuristic– judgingthelikelihoodofthingsintermsofhowwelltheyseemtorepresent,ormatchparticularprototypes(mentalimages);thismayleadustoignoreotherrelevantinformation

Wemayusethistooverridestatisticsorlogic.

Don’t judgeabookbyit’scover!

Page 7: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

Using&MisusingHeuristicsTheavailabilityheuristic–estimatingthelikelihoodofeventsbasedontheiravailabilityinmemory;ifinstancescomereadilytomind,wepresumesucheventstobecommon

Ex.Casinosmakeabigdealaboutevensmallwinssothatwearemorelikelytorememberthemthanthelosseswhichoccurmoreoften.

Page 8: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

AvailabilityHeuristicExampleIsanyoneafraidofterrorists?

Afraidofflying?

Why?

Page 9: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

AvailabilityHeuristicExamples

Page 10: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

AvailabilityHeuristicExample

Page 11: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

OverconfidenceOverconfidence – thetendency tobemoreconfident thancorrect– tooverestimate theaccuracy ofourbeliefsandjudgments• Wefailtoappreciateourpotential forerror• Happensalotrightafteratestyoumighttake• Americanconfidence beforeVietnam,Iraq

Page 12: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

OverconfidenceYesterdaysomeoneasksyou:Howlongwillittakeyoutodoyourhomeworktonight?• Youranswer:1hour• Reality:3hours

Nextweeksomeoneasksyou:Howlongwillittakeyoutodoyourhomeworktonight?• Youranswer:1hour• Reality:3hours

Despiteourestimationmistakes,weremainoverconfident withournextpredictions

Page 13: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

BeliefPerseverance

Beliefperseverance– clingingtoone’sinitialconceptionsafterthebasisonwhichtheywereformedhavebeendiscredited

Teachersmakethismistakewithstudentsbasedoneitheroldreputationsthekidmighthaveorone-timemistakesakidmighthavemade

Pre-judging

Page 14: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

IntuitionAneffortless,immediate,automaticfeelingorthought.

Fast,automatic,unreasonedfeeling&thought

Notexplicit,consciousreasoning.

Page 15: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

IntuitionItisourinnateinclinationtowardaparticular behavior (asopposed toalearnedresponse).

Agutfeeling—or ahunch—isasensationthatappearsquicklyinconsciousness (noticeableenoughtobeactedonifonechoosesto)withoutusbeingfullyawareoftheunderlyingreasonsforitsoccurrence.

Page 16: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

IntuitionIntuitionisaprocessthatgivesustheabilitytoknowsomethingdirectlywithoutanalyticreasoning,bridgingthegapbetweentheconsciousandnon-consciouspartsofourmind,andalsobetweeninstinctandreason.

Wethinkofintuitionasamagicalphenomenon—buthunchesareformedoutofourpastexperiencesandknowledge.

Sowhilerelyingongutfeelingsdoesn'talwaysleadtogooddecisions,it'snotnearlyasflightyatacticasitmaysound.

Page 17: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

Intuition

Whenfacedwithcomplexchoicesthebestsolutioncomesafteroneisdistractedandthencomesbacktotheproblem“Sleeponit”

Page 18: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM
Page 19: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

Framing

Page 20: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

FramingThewayanissueisposed.

10%ofpeoplediewhileundergoingthissurgery90%ofpeoplesurvivewhileundergoingthissurgery.

Cansignificantlyaffectdecisionsandjudgments.

Page 21: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

Framing&OptionsPreferredportionsizedepends onframing

Regularvs.small,regularvs.supersize

Opt-outvs.Opt-in:ChoosingtobeanorgandonordependsonwhereyouliveHowtohelpemployees decidetosavefortheirretirement

Page 22: AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy · AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgements copy Author: jlipsky Created Date: 1/22/2018 5:56:45 AM

FramingExamples

“Aidtotheneedy” vs.“welfare”

Storesmarktheir“regularprices”uptoappeartohavehugesavings.

Whatis“socialsecurity”?


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