March 1, 2006 Biology Seminar 1

Application of a Framework for Multi-scale Analysis of Ecological

Interactions to Modeling the Effects of Cross-Scale Interactions of Stressors

on the Lake Erie Ecosystem

Jon Cline and Joseph KoonceDepartment of Biology

Case Western Reserve UniversityCleveland, Ohio

March 1, 2006 2

Overview

State of the Lake Erie EcosystemThe Project

The objectivesReview of challenges

Modeling the systemThe approachThe implementation

The future

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State of Lake Erie Ecosystem

Lake Erie is structurally and functionally unhealthy (i.e. impaired)

Limited resilienceStructural instability

Prevailing stress complex is currently unmanageable

Fish community unstable with cascade of effectsManagement uncertaintyConfusion about important regulatory mechanisms

March 1, 2006 4

Project Goals

Develop a regional-scale, stressor-response model for the management of the Lake Erie ecosystem

Stressors: land use changes, nutrients, habitat alteration, flow regime modification, exotic species, and fisheries exploitation

Incorporate model into a multi-objective decision making tool for use by Lake Erie managers

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Why Link?Land use changes affect tributary and lake fish habitat

Effects:•Water quality•Water quantity•Recruitment

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Project Goals

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Challenges: Linking Pattern and Process across Scales

Perceptions of ScalingSize of Individual OrganismsPopulations in a Space-Time Continuum

Representation of ScalingLimits of Spatial and Temporal DisaggregationPropagation of Variability and Pattern Preservation

TimeSp

ace

CenturyYearMonthDayHour

10000 km

100 km

km

m

cm

IBM

LEEMDitoro

March 1, 2006 8

Unifying modeling framework

Overall functional integration of habitat and Lake Erie ecosystem health

Linking landscape to whole lake processesDetermine cross-scale additivity of stressors

Database componentFine scale classification of landscapeBiologically informed aggregation of landscape features

Ecological modelHierarchicalLinked to management

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Multimodeling in Ecology

Suite of models that may be linked as component models (I.e. ecosystem components)

Hierarchical assemblyCoupling physical and biological models

Different model representationsProcess-based modelsStage-structured modelsIndividual-based models

Incorporate different spatial scales

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Work in Progress

High resolution mapping of fish habitatMap modelingField tests

Development of new model frameworkSupport for hierarchical modelsSupport for hybrid modelsSupport for a meta-model repository

March 1, 2006 11

Modeling Complex Systems

Separate Models From Simulators Separate Models From Experimental FramesUse the DEVS (Discrete Event System Specification) Formalism Entities and Relations

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Implementation of a simple modelChanceNode

Performance Index

Project 1

Project n

Θ1

Θp

Θ1

Θp

Θ1

Θp

Θ1

Θp

OutcomeNode Project 1

Project n

Θ1

Θp

Θ1

Θp

Θ1

Θp

Θ1

ΘpExperiment 1

Experiment m

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Design of a more complicated model

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Model Assembly

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Model Implementation: Integration

Metadata for spatial dataXML specification of data for modelsXML specification of data for queries

A CORBA Component Model Implementation of a DEVS M&S Framework

Model selectionModel assembly

Model driven architecturePlatform Independent ModelPlatform Specific ModelTransformation through code generators

March 1, 2006 16

Summary

Developing linkages between models is importantBig pictureTool for managing complexityFramework for model contests

Frameworks make implementation of linkages easierModel assemblyHigh performance computing

March 1, 2006 17

Acknowledgements

Grant Support:Ohio Coastal Management Assistance Grants Program

U.S. EPA

JHU:Ben HobbsJongbum KimRichard AndersonPearl ZhengHong Li

Mike Fodale, USFWSLes Stanfield, OMNRGreat Lakes Fishery CommissionDepartment of Fisheries & Oceans, Canada

CWRU:Peter WhitingJon ClineAnn Marie GormanTom NeesonCatherine CortrightAna Locci